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OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

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Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#241

Post by zozbot234 »

winrid wrote: post #228
jonah wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The general public will self-host it's built in to your next phone or laptop straight out of the box or maybe from the App Store.

True. I was thinking more of power users. Do you think Opus level capabilities will run on your average laptop in a year? I think that's pretty far away if ever.

You can demonstrate "running" the latest open Kimi or GLM model on a top-of-the-line laptop at very low throughput (Kimi at 2 tok/s, which is slow when you account for thinking time) today, courtesy of Flash-MoE with SSD weights offload. That's not Opus-like, it's not an "average" laptop and it's not really usable for non-niche purposes due to the low throughput. But it's impressive in a way, and it does give a nice idea of what might be feasible down the line.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#243

Post by ex-aws-dude »

jmward01 wrote: post #213

There is a lot of talk about the AI bubble. I think there are comparisons to the late 90's/early 00's here with early stars rising quickly but, ultimately, falling. Since essentially everything touches the internet now it is clear that the 'internet bubble' was more of a shakeup of companies than a real over-hype of the internet. That, I think, is at play right now too with the 'AI bubble'. AI isn't going away but so…

What is their moat?

It seems like its just consumer name recognition at the moment

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#244

Post by nl »

troupo wrote: post #107
aurareturn wrote: post #58

$2b/month which is $24b/year. Not as much as I expected considering they were at $20b by end of 2025.[0] They only added $4b since? Anthropic had $19b by end of February 2026 and they added $6b in February alone.[1] This means if they added another $6b in March, they're higher than OpenAI already. However, I heard that OpenAI and Anthropic report revenue in a different way. OpenAI takes 20% of revenue from Azure sale…

And that is revenue only. In the past 15 or so years most US companies (and especially startups) always talk about revenue only. Wheras only profit should matter. E.g. what good is 20 billion per year when "OpenAI is targeting roughly $600 billion in total compute spending through 2030". That is $150 billion per year?

What is the point - exactly - of profit?

Profit is money you can't find a use for to grow your business, so you give some of it to the government in the form of tax.

Also there is a big difference between operational expenses and capital expenses like building data centers.

I think OpenAI is being very aggressive on the growth vs conservative financial management spectrum but just saying "only profit should matter" is just wrong.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#245

Post by manquer »

aurareturn wrote: post #158
manquer wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren't reporting anything yet. What we hearing is just from news media who get their leaks/info from investors who get some form of IR reports/ presentation. Both will do public reporting only when they IPO[4] and have regulatory requirement to do so every quarter. For private companies[1] reporting to investors there are no fixed rules really[3] Even for public companies, there is fair amount of leeway on how G…

They aren't reporting anything yet. What we hearing is just from news media who get their leaks/info from investors who get some form of IR reports/ presentation. The $24b figure is literally in OpenAI's announcement. The $19b ARR and $6b added in Feb came directly from Anthropic CEO recently.

I am reminded of the "I declare bankruptcy" meme from the 2000's TV series Office.

When we say reporting it means there are statutory submissions with an auditor signing off, with legal liability. As the other reply referenced consequences for doing this incorrectly can be severe - Arthur Anderson is no more after all because of Enron.

A Press Release (of a private entity) does not have to satisfy this high bar.

Press release does mean no constraints, for public companies, disclosure of important information by officers and other insiders have strong controls. Even if its the just a rocket/poop emoji on a casual social media platform. Lawyers have to refile with the SEC in the expected format. Even private companies have restrictions on not claiming things fraudulently to investors, but these are accredited investors with lesser controls than retail.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#246

Post by jmward01 »

aurareturn wrote: post #231
jmward01 wrote: post #213

There is a lot of talk about the AI bubble. I think there are comparisons to the late 90's/early 00's here with early stars rising quickly but, ultimately, falling. Since essentially everything touches the internet now it is clear that the 'internet bubble' was more of a shakeup of companies than a real over-hype of the internet. That, I think, is at play right now too with the 'AI bubble'. AI isn't going away but so…

I don’t care if OpenAI is Netscape or Google. What I want to know is are we in 1994 of the AI bubble or 1999? Because even after the dotcom bubble popped, it was still much better than it was in 1994.

I think the cycle is way faster than it used to be so even if we are in 1994, the pop is probably pretty close.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#247

Post by nine_k »

zer00eyz wrote: post #234
nine_k wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking around, and especially forward, it would be military tech, e.g. [1], and its supply chain, e.g. [2] :-\ Valuations are not as crazy, but I bet there'll going to be a lot of demand in the coming decade, unfortunately. Chip production, too, of course, but it's overflowing with money already, apparently. It's growing though, because there are real actual shortages of stuff like RAM and SSDs, there's money to be…

> it would be military tech Anduril is the only company in this sector in the US that has any promise and they aren't even public. Most of us are not going to get our hands on this. Traditional defense sector looks more like Jeep, or Kodak...

The demand for more Patriot missiles is large, now that much of the stockpiles have suddenly been spent. Raytheon should do fine just based on that.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#248

Post by pier25 »

aurareturn wrote: post #145
pier25 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give me a billion and I'll have 500M of revenue in no time by selling dollars at 50 cents.

Why are we treating OpenAI and Anthropic differently than say, Amazon or Uber? Both companies invested in growth for many years before making a profit. Most tech companies in the last 2-3 decades lost money for years before making a profit. Why are we saying that OpenAI and Anthropic can't do the same?

It's not even remotely comparable. Uber burnt some $30B over a decade or so.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#249

Post by bigwheels »

dabbz wrote: post #161
maxverse wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting this was written by AI?

It's a very frequently used structure by LLMs especially ones writing for LinkedIn.

"It's not X, it's Y."

A linguistic presentation commonly referred to as constrastive negation.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#250

Post by diatone »

aurareturn wrote: post #158
manquer wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren't reporting anything yet. What we hearing is just from news media who get their leaks/info from investors who get some form of IR reports/ presentation. Both will do public reporting only when they IPO[4] and have regulatory requirement to do so every quarter. For private companies[1] reporting to investors there are no fixed rules really[3] Even for public companies, there is fair amount of leeway on how G…

They aren't reporting anything yet. What we hearing is just from news media who get their leaks/info from investors who get some form of IR reports/ presentation. The $24b figure is literally in OpenAI's announcement. The $19b ARR and $6b added in Feb came directly from Anthropic CEO recently.

Until they’re using consistent methods of reporting those figures, they’re not comparable. Same as any other company pre vs post IPO
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