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The Cognitive Dark Forest
241–250 of 301 posts
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#242"To close the gates" is only reasonable when you're working (a) not for self-actualization, (b) not for fun, (c) not for learning, (d) not for public good or your understanding thereof, (e) not for any other reason not directly connected with extracting rents from a broad audience. As I see this as the only path where corporations can outpace you with AI capabilities.
And remember how many good products have been abandoned or killed by corporations because not marginal enough. So you're not very likely to be chased even if you do intend to extract rents from a broad audience.
The article is spreading dangerous FUD aimed (perhaps inadvertently) to hinder free and open ideas sharing and innovation.
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#243"To close the gates" is only reasonable when you're working (a) not for self-actualization, (b) not for fun, (c) not for learning, (d) not for public good or your understanding thereof, (e) not for any other reason not directly connected with extracting rents from a broad audience. As I see this as the only path where corporations can outpace you with AI capabilities. And remember how many good products have been aba…
The article is me coping with my existential crisis, trying to explore and accept my fears by writing it. And by exploring ideas I think I found some vision for my stance in all this - or hope if you will. I hope these feelings will be real, and I can write a positive blog post also, but I can't be certain if the feelings will survive the scrutiny at this point, or are just warm fuzzy delusions and next level of cope (I had these periods few times in last year).
I'm just trying to say, I am definitely not trying to deliberately spread FUD to hinder the open web -if that was your impression :P
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#244Relatively grandiose post sweeps in all kinds of claims about the universe to merely warn a big corporation can copy your idea easily.
Let me write a more interesting body. So hiding is the most rational - the only - strategy of survival. In the beginning, you reached out with reckless abandon. It was fun to banter with dogs online. Nobody would ever see unless they were looking through your wall. There was no search. No comment history. Bumping into someone in the vast night was enough of a miracle. Why hold back? There are some forum warriors on s…
Well i would be very happy if i could write that instinctively (at least the feel/flow makes it seem like that) in english, but i can't even by a long stretch.
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#245Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't buy the analogy. The problem with Kessler syndrome is that low earth orbit is physically crowded, you run into collisions. I don't care about the garbage. I don't care about the AI era. I've been writing code in Emacs for 20 years, I'll be writing code in Emacs in 20 years, every open source project I contribute to still looks the same because all these AI people, like the blockchain people do is just make ne…
> I've been writing code in Emacs for 20 years, I'll be writing code in Emacs in 20 years Bold assumption. On what will you run Emacs if average PC costs $12000? Yes. Even Raspberry Pi. It's not called war on general computing for nothing. If you say the cloud, that will be cut up and reused by the next AI crawler.
> It's not called war on general computing for nothing.
Companies paying too much for hardware to chase a bubble is not "war on general computing".
> Even Raspberry Pi.
What's preventing supply from catching up with demand in this situation?
If high prices stick around long term, there will be so many chip fabs ready to pump out $100 pi-equivalents that still let them have a 200% markup.
Also I can go buy a quite good mini PC with 16GB of RAM for $300. In what world does that price go up another 40x?
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#246Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know, I think it's an overreaction. > No more sharing my project work as open source. No more open discussion. I don't care how badly I want to show the world; if I'd like somebody to see, I will have it printed in a physical book, or I will give them access to my private repository not reachable via the public Internet. If you have a project you would have open-sourced, and you don't do that for fear that th…
I’m not afraid of the llm, but also acknowledge that some people _feel_ a fear of theft by soulless robots. What I do fear is the possibility of megacorp robots being the only ones… local and “dark” technology are essential.
We're not anthropomorphising LLMs themselves as the bogeymen here. They are simply the spear tip held by the locus of power. If we do not have conceivable means to produce models of our own accord, for our own usage, do we really have the same degree of power that owners of datacenters appreciate?
In the words of Zack de la Rocha: "Fuck tha G-ride, I want the machines that are makin' 'em". Furthermore: "Know your enemy."
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
Makes some sense to me, as the prisoner's dilemma dictates at least some fraction will try to kill you. So you've got to go first. Reminds me of the Dan Carlin take on aircraft carriers in World War II: if you in a carrier spotted an opposing carrier and didn't send everything you had before it spotted you, you were dead. The only move was to go all in every time.
Surely that logic applies if you're at war with the other side? If you start attacking carriers of random superpowers, you only invite further destruction...
Yes, but in this case the aircraft carriers represent the entire civilization and there is no repeat player such as nations in times of peace. So if you spot an alien civilization with even a 1% probability of trying to kill you, you don't really have the opportunity to "wait and see". And there's no meta higher-level arrangement that will protect you.
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#248This is mislead by the nerd philosophy that the tech is the business. It absolutely isn’t, the tech is a small part of a startup. Witness that Spotify continues to exist despite being known and replicated by the major giants. Poetically expressed, but ultimately based on a false notion of what a business actually is.
you picked one fairly rare thing with an incredible non-tech moat that is also a cancer for the artist, bravo!!
TikTok, cloned by Meta, still winning.
Slack, cloned by Microsoft, still winning.
Skyscanner. Dropbox. Snapchat. Dating Apps. All cloned. Still going.
The tech is not the business.
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#249It is also asymmetric. If you announce your presence, even if 4 out of 5 civs that notice you don’t annihilate you immediately (but they probably should), the fifth might. It’s just a probability game, with permadeath. So hiding is the most rational - the only - strategy of survival. This is a paranoid and cynical strategy that doesn't win out in the known history of life. What works is grow, expand, mingle, maintain…
It's specifically referencing the central idea of the book mentioned in the first sentence of the paragraph.
> Did you get to read the Liu Cixin’s second 3-body-problem novel? - The Dark Forest. Well some of you did …
The author of this post then provides a good summary of the idea in the next few sentences, but remember there is an entire book around this premise (and a first book that sets it up and a third book explores it even more).
Re: The Cognitive Dark Forest
#250Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I've been writing code in Emacs for 20 years, I'll be writing code in Emacs in 20 years Bold assumption. On what will you run Emacs if average PC costs $12000? Yes. Even Raspberry Pi. It's not called war on general computing for nothing. If you say the cloud, that will be cut up and reused by the next AI crawler.
AI will not be able to eat up all chip manufacturing capabilities forever. At some point the market will be saturated and PCs will get affordable again.
True, but as they say, the market can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent
We simply don't know how long this bubble will last