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Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back

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Re: Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back

#241

Post by rennokki »

mikkupikku wrote: post #215
section_me wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same can be said for people using LLM agents to complete jobs faster than humans ever possibly can. It's not like they just fluked it. They've learned how to harness the capabilities of the tech. Now companies are introducing this stuff as a normal workflow but they are clueless as to how it actually works and expecting 10x output from people.

I wonder how the transition from classic hammers to nail guns went for carpenters / framers.

Nail guns are tools, just like hammers. However, you have to know how to use it and to know how to adjust the pressure for the depth you need. It also costs money, much more than a hammer. And you can't use normal nails, you have to have a specific cartridge of nails, and you must know how to adjust it, and ultimately to not die.

Now compare it again.

Re: Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back

#242

Post by UncleMeat »

Swizec wrote: post #164
cosmic_quanta wrote: post #52

I will die on this hill: tech firms that mandated 5 days in the office was about soft layoffs, rather than a principled stance on individual performance under WFH. My "evidence" is that trading firms that kept raking in the money, and that benefit from maximum productivity of their employees, still generally have a hybrid work culture.

> I will die on this hill: tech firms that mandated 5 days in the office was about soft layoffs, rather than a principled stance on individual performance under WFH “True work only happens in person with human collaboration! Everyone must come back” 2 years pass “Oh wow we can replace everyone with a chatbot this is amazing” narrator: It was the interest rates all along. Many of these tech businesses are fundamentall…

I don't think it was interest rates. Tech just saw that workers were able to extract higher and higher pay and more and more benefits and the industry saw an opportunity to reverse this trend. And it has succeeded. The semi-coordinated action since 2023 has caused pay to stagnate, enabled businesses to remove benefits, and frightened workers away from changing employers.

Re: Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back

#243

Post by rennokki »

nehal3m wrote: post #193
Cthulhu_ wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thing is, who decides how many tasks someone can do in a day? What if they get paid for 8 but only work for one, but the manager doesn't know they do, and they never communicate their workload is too low?

Why would you expect Homo Economicus to ask for more work? The companies they work for chase infinite profit at zero cost as a matter of principle, why shouldn’t employees? This holds whether their butt is in a seat in some office or at home.

I ain't mad at all. If someone can be a CEO to multiple companies, so can employees have multiple jobs.

> Homo Economicus

GOOD ONE

Re: Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back

#244

Post by budududuroiu »

It's clear that post-COVID, white collar employees had the upper hand over their employers. Quiet quitting and other stupid acronyms, lengthy LinkedIn posts about "this generation doesn't get their hands dirty" was the canary in the coal mine for what's coming.

Interest rate hikes, increased unemployment, austerity (...sorry fiscal prudence), are all tools that can be deployed to reduce the bargaining power of labour. So is return to office, layoffs, AI.

Re: Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back

#245

Post by smithoc »

rcpt wrote: post #167
everdrive wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also consolidation of jobs in big cities. When I was a kid you didn't need to move away from home to find a stable income. WFH could have solved that, but I think the cultural movement to relocating has just become too entrenched.

You were a kid before Detroit automakers? Before NYC was the center of finance?

When I was a kid the Detroit automakers bought air filters manufactured at a factory in Kenosha, Wisconsin and brake pads manufactured in Peoria, Illinois and lubricants from Fort Wayne, Indiana.

And the people working in those places provided the customer base for local and regional financial services, along with the rest of the commercial base that made small towns and provincial cities good places to live and raise a family throughout the 20th century.

And of course, a household only needed one person employed, so there was less pressure to move to a bigger city that could provide opportunities for two different careers.

Re: Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back

#246

Post by toomuchtodo »

bombcar wrote: post #230
toomuchtodo wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is evidence that improved economic conditions and flexible work arrangements increase fertility in meaningful amounts. Is it enough to achieve 2.1 replacement rate? It isn't, but the evidence is robust that wealthier people do have higher fertility in some circumstances. TLDR Fertility declines as countries urbanize, income rises, and women are educated and empowered to make more affirmed fertility choices, but…

I suspect that if you have a situation where people's "situation" (to use the word twice) doesn't change much from year to year but they feel they're slipping behind/worse (e.g, inflation but everything else is basically the same) - you'll find a decline in the birthrate. If you have a situation where suddenly your life improves noticeably, birthrates will rise - even if the first group is always better off than the…

Strongly agree, the sentiment must be of a longer term improvement, not a temporary one. “Applied hope” if you will. The hope must be "sticky."

Re: Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back

#247

Post by roryirvine »

cosmic_quanta wrote: post #52

I will die on this hill: tech firms that mandated 5 days in the office was about soft layoffs, rather than a principled stance on individual performance under WFH. My "evidence" is that trading firms that kept raking in the money, and that benefit from maximum productivity of their employees, still generally have a hybrid work culture.

Data from consultancies tends to show that WFH and hybrid work patterns are correlated with a significant increase in billable hours compared to 100% in-office. My understanding that a similar pattern can be seen in law firms.

The "RTO is more productive" thesis tends to come from industry sectors where quantitative measures like billable hours aren't so readily available. At best, it seems vibes-based - but, like you, I suspect that it's actually disingenuous posturing.

Re: Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back

#248

Post by jeffreyrogers »

LiquidSky wrote: post #221
jeffreyrogers wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I associate the concept of pronatalism with also wanting to be involved in your kids' lives, which Musk seems to have no interest in.

>I associate the concept of pronatalism with also wanting to be involved in your kids' lives Then don't because it's just wrong. Very few, if any, of the "more babies, bigger families" types have any interest in or concern for the children after they're born. In fact they're usually the ones fighting tooth and nail to prevent any kinds of programs or services that might help the resulting children and families. For t…

This is not true among the people I personally know with large families.

Re: Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back

#249

Post by fhd2 »

pc86 wrote: post #145
fhd2 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What baffles me most about RTO is what it does to romantic partnerships. If both can find career advancing jobs in the same city, that's cool. But what if they can't? The options aren't great: 1. One of them takes a hit on their career for the benefit of the other. 2. Both move to an area with OK-ish jobs for both, sharing the sacrifice. 3. Both take optimal jobs wherever they are and move into a long distance relati…

It seems like this comment boils down to "relationships require compromise and sacrifice and this scales with more people" which is almost tautological.

Sort of. I was arguing that I see WFH as the superior model for people in relationships, because it eliminates the need for sacrifice and compromise on one dimension: Career beneficial location.

Not on all dimensions, of course. People with kids e.g. will have to find a solution for who gets to work how much, it's a similar conflict WFH addresses partly at best.

Re: Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back

#250

Post by fhd2 »

bluGill wrote: post #146
fhd2 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What baffles me most about RTO is what it does to romantic partnerships. If both can find career advancing jobs in the same city, that's cool. But what if they can't? The options aren't great: 1. One of them takes a hit on their career for the benefit of the other. 2. Both move to an area with OK-ish jobs for both, sharing the sacrifice. 3. Both take optimal jobs wherever they are and move into a long distance relati…

Most people are not in a niche where finding a job depends on location, and those that are already live in that city. Doctors can find a clinic to work at nearly anywhere. If their partner needs to move they can go with.

Sure, depends on the field. Some fields can't realistically WFH to begin with. Some easily can though. If you have a doctor and a programmer, the doctor can work at a hospital that provides the best career opportunity for them, while the programmer can work at the place that provides the best opportunity for them, given WFH.

If both can WFH, they can even choose the place they want to live in regardless of where their optimal employment options are based.

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