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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#241

Post by thechao »

actionablefiber wrote: post #170
iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.

It's increasingly a pet theory of mine that the uncontrolled concentration of wealth into the hands of the richest, their subsequent existential ennui, and their disconnect from reality owing to media consolidation and algorithmic content feeds have basically created a world where the superrich are in a "post-game" mentality. There are no further material comforts to obtain. They just want to feel anything at all and…

Damn! I just nuked a long conversation with ChatGPT outlining my pet theory that with changes in scale of energy regimes (labor->wind/water->coal->oil->solar) we get an excess energetic capacity that means our entertainment systems can't handle! That excess spills out as elite political retrenchment, entertainment jealousy, and (finally) violence, expanded civil rights, and a new entertainment regime.

Mostly tongue in cheek... but the whole thing hangs together.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#242

Post by gruez »

asdff wrote: post #237
kasey_junk wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s just not true. Most of the six unemployment numbers capture unemployed graduates but m3 the headline number certainly does.

How is this information collected? When I was looking for work after grad school I didn't report to anyone as such. The school had no idea whether or not I was actively looking. I was denied unemployment. I'm not sure what my info might have looked like on the IRS end if that is what is being abrogated.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.faq.htm

It also specifically says unemployment figures isn't solely from state unemployment insurance figures.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#243

Post by alephnerd »

RandomLensman wrote: post #223
alephnerd wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example The US, not Europe. ASML's EUV and High NA EUV production is all done in California via US DoE joint ventures (specifically Cymer LLC [0]). Additionally, their metrology IP is Taiwanese [1] as part of ASML's acquisition of HMI back in 2016 with Taiwanese approval [2]. ASML is the capital partner because in the early 2000s, the US government wanted to preve…

Where can I see the DOE having a stake in Cymer?

Department of ENERGY not the DoD.

The EUV IP which Cymer owns was originally part of EUV LLC, which was an LLNL [0], Sandia [1], and Intel [2] initiative as part of a CRADA. Cymer eventually began working on EUV as well building on EUV LLC and SEMATECH's work, and was eventually purchased by ASML after the Dept of Commerce and DoE backed their acquisition in 2013 [4], but included Cymer in additional CRADAs [3], ongoing projects [5], and maintain Cymer as a separate operating unit [6] within ASML.

It is these CRADAs that allow the DoE to exert its muscle on IP ownership and knowhow, as they are essentially a license of IP and personnel on US DoE terms [7] while also allowing for private partners to commercialize.

[0] - https://www.llnl.gov/article/27641/euvl-partnership-makes-it...

[1] - https://newsreleases.sandia.gov/partners-unveil-first-extrem...

[2] - https://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/speeches/EUV91197.HT...

[3] - https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1413999

[4] - https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2013/asml-comple...

[5] - https://www.llnl.gov/article/52226/llnl-selected-lead-next-g...

[6] - https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021...

[7] - https://www.directives.doe.gov/directives-documents/400-seri...

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#244

Post by sroussey »

gcanyon wrote: post #239
culi wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

> Which region would be less affected by the coming climate crisis? Do you have evidence that the ultra wealthy are actually taking this into account? Over a human timeframe every ultra wealthy person has access to plenty of “climate change safe“ locations, no particular advance planning is needed.

Getting citizenship requires planning.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#245

Post by microtonal »

CalRobert wrote: post #22
10xDev wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Europe won't be able to catch that. If we cut the chip supply right as things take off, China might not either. https://www.asml.com

I would be worried about the US militarily capturing Eindhoven if Europe dared to cut them off.

Unlikely, but also not needed. The major ruling parties in The Netherlands are always strongly pro-US. Even if the US would attack the International Criminal Court in The Hague and kidnap its judges, the VVD (the liberal party) and the PVV (extreme-right party) would find ways to defend it.

There is no way they would go as far as cutting the US off from ASML. At least not without a significant shift in Dutch politics.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#246

Post by sroussey »

actionablefiber wrote: post #170
iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.

It's increasingly a pet theory of mine that the uncontrolled concentration of wealth into the hands of the richest, their subsequent existential ennui, and their disconnect from reality owing to media consolidation and algorithmic content feeds have basically created a world where the superrich are in a "post-game" mentality. There are no further material comforts to obtain. They just want to feel anything at all and…

Sounds like Fallout

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#247

Post by smitty1e »

cyanydeez wrote: post #69
smitty1e wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depending upon which party controls the White House, numbers seem to be released to support a predictable narrative, then adjusted later. But that's probably just my lying' eyes.

Now they just stop releasing. Thats a sizeable change. Even if you have a known bias, we can adjusy for that bias. But if you just stop collecting data? No, these are not your father's red versus blue stats.

One is safe to assume partisan shenanigans with every single government program and number until proven otherwise.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#249

Post by cyanydeez »

pocksuppet wrote: post #132
cyanydeez wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but thetes a sizeable diffetence when skewed data becomes no-data. Context has power. Removing it is thining the herd of power.

I say removing skewed data forces people to confront reality as it actually is. Instead of "This economy sucks!" "Yeah, but look at the data, it's getting better..." Now we just have "This economy sucks!" "Yeah"

what. People absolutely have no idea what's going on without large, organized data.

The point is, the argument isn't "this data is right leaning" vs "this data is left leaning" or whatever your skew-scope is.

The argument at present: "We don't need to know to know X" versus "Of course we need to know X".

And ther'es clearly a fascist convincing people it's all useless while they ply their grift of choice.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#250

Post by marcosdumay »

abirch wrote: post #218
mentalgear wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly: The 0.01% Elite bleeding out the planet and their biggest worries are: 1. How do I keep my doomsday bunker servants in line? 2. Or is a ticket to Mars the better option?

Mars isn't a good option due to lack of magnetosphere. Personally if you want to propagate life by shooting containers of RNA at different extraterrestrial plants.

> due to lack of magnetosphere

Well, it's certainly one of the concerns there. After the lack of an atmosphere, biosphere, usable water...

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