Iran is so near to everything in Middle East: Saudi Arabia/UAE, Hormuz, Israel. And all these are direct enemies of Iran or friends with the USA. It's unavoidable to be targeted. Whoever approaches these will be affected. Just for reference, Iranian missiled can reach southern Italy.
US- and Greek-owned tankers ablaze after Iran claims 'underwater drone' strike
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Re: US- and Greek-owned tankers ablaze after Iran claims 'underwater drone' strike
#242These tankers aren't easily replaceable are they? As in it takes significant time to build them. Even if Trump's claims that the war will end shortly were true. Oil prices are guaranteed not coming down if many more of these ships are sunk.
Restarting the oil wheels that are closed now will take years already.
Why is starting so much slower than stopping?
Re: US- and Greek-owned tankers ablaze after Iran claims 'underwater drone' strike
#243Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you're overestimating the complexity of small unmanned subs. Drug traffickers are building _manned_ subs now in South American jungles. You just need a body (plastic tube), batteries, motors, and a computer. Maybe with a "range extender" gas engine. Everything can be COTS, and Iran certainly can manufacture occasional custom components. After all, it can manufacture centrifuges for uranium enrichment.
Maybe! Most of those unmanned narcosubs are cut-down speedboats hulls, to my knowledge. The truly watertight/submerged ones are few and far between; it's a lot of investment for marginal decrease in observability. My money is still on low-observable attack craft, or a high-low mix that deprioritizes submersibles. Iran has an impressive panopoly but also has casus belli to lie out their nose. If Iran does have fully s…
> Most of those unmanned narcosubs are cut-down speedboats hulls, to my knowledge.
Some are now fully submersible: https://insightcrime.org/news/under-radar-what-hundreds-ofna...
I think it is indeed more likely that they used a low-profile boat, but I won't discount a full submersible. Or maybe a combination: a low-profile boat that uses a regular outboard gas engine to get close to the target, and then dives and attacks like a torpedo.
> If Iran does have fully submersable UUVs, I'd expect them to be saved for a direct confrontation with the US Navy, not tankers.
I don't think they can do serious damage to large US Navy vessels.
Re: US- and Greek-owned tankers ablaze after Iran claims 'underwater drone' strike
#244Earlier quoted context omitted.
Biden held back arms support for Ukraine on dubious "we don't wanna test Russia's red line" grounds, gave unlimited support a wannabe despot's (Netanyahu's) wars of aggression even as he tried to backstab democracy in the US, arguably also enabling him to start the current situation in Iran, failed to prosecute an attempt to overturn the US election, and stayed in the presidential race for too long when his body and…
I disagree heartily with Biden and the deeper US intelligence communities assessments, like you do. Nonetheless, I wouldn't call Biden incompetent on any of that. Biden did not lose, Kamala Harris lost. Biden was not incompetent, but he was successfully portrayed as incompetent by applying a very different standard to Biden than to Trump 45.
> I disagree heartily with Biden and the deeper US intelligence communities assessments, like you do.
Maybe if they were actually competent they wouldn't have made the mistake then?
> Biden did not lose, Kamala Harris lost.
Harris had no choice but to carry the Biden administration's poor approval on her back. Furthermore if Biden knew he would be unelectable in 2024 earlier he could have dropped out earlier and allow Harris (or other Democrats) more time to campaign. But he chose to stay until a disastrous televised debate forced him out, out of… what, exactly?
> but he was successfully portrayed as incompetent by applying a very different standard to Biden than to Trump 45.
Biden defenders always bring up how we shouldn't criticize him because Trump is worse. Ok. But you realize that's an absurdly low bar to clear, no? We are not upset that Biden is worse than Trump, we are upset that Biden is worse than what we expect from a someone with a letter D next to his name.
Re: US- and Greek-owned tankers ablaze after Iran claims 'underwater drone' strike
#245Earlier quoted context omitted.
We're talking about the same guy that sent a second slate of electors for the 2020 election. The same guy that told the government of Georgia to add 10,000 votes to his total so he'd win. The same guy that received 0 punishment for either action. Why wouldn't he try something for the mid-terms?
Of course Trump will try something outrageous that would result in prison time for any other person. But I think that the states are also still independent, mostly ruled by law rather than man, and there's limited troop power to interfere. Trump is not all powerful, unless everybody gives up their power. Not everybody is as weak as the SV elite, and the failures of Big Law and others that bent the knee were very inst…
This time he has his own brown shirts, even fast tracking to to service without any training. DoJ had been getting their hands on voter rolls from swing states. Bondi and other trump top advisors and relocated to living on military bases. Idk where it's going but it's really not looking good.
Re: US- and Greek-owned tankers ablaze after Iran claims 'underwater drone' strike
#246Earlier quoted context omitted.
It might have been a low-observable watercraft like the Sea Baby: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Baby A true UUV attack is probably outside Iran's wheelhouse, but cutting-down an attack speedboat to the waterline seems very realistic.
Why would it be outside of Iran capabilities? They are the ones who provided Russia with Shahed drones.
> They are the ones who provided Russia with Shahed drones.
Shaheeds are aerodynamic clones of the Israeli Harpy SEAD drone, which in turn were based on the German Dornier DAR of the 1980s.
Compared to the loitering anti-radar DAR, the Shaheed is electronically extremely simple and not much more advanced than the WW2 V-1.
The fact that Russia started producing Shaheeds reflects more on the poor state of Russian industry than any sophistication of Iranian technology.
Re: US- and Greek-owned tankers ablaze after Iran claims 'underwater drone' strike
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
They hate it a lot less today than they did 2 weeks ago.
Interesting you should say that, as not a single one of the Iranian emigrants that I know would agree with you.
Extrapolating the politics of people who stayed based on the politics of people who chose to leave is not going to get you very far.
Re: US- and Greek-owned tankers ablaze after Iran claims 'underwater drone' strike
#248Earlier quoted context omitted.
Iran has two clear win conditions in this war: cause enough pain that the US withdraws (unlikely given the current admin), or wait until US midterms and hope the Dems secure a victory and use the war powers resolution to end the war. The more FUD they can generate around transport in the strait of Hermuz the better for them. Maybe they have this capability and maybe they don’t, but they are clearly able to hit these…
This admin does TACO all the time. A likely scenario is Iran causes economic problems, Trump chickens out and withdraws while simultaneously declaring absolute victory. Any lingering problems he blames on Rubio and hegseth.
TACO isn't enough, Iran must also withdraw, this isn't a given if they feel they have nothing to lose
Re: US- and Greek-owned tankers ablaze after Iran claims 'underwater drone' strike
#249Earlier quoted context omitted.
I heard a theory that since someone told Trump that Ukraine wouldn't hold elections until after the war, he thought America had the same law.
He has lived through multiple wars where elections were held. I do not think highly of the man, but he would have to be pretty bad off to come to that belief.
I would wager that someone as selfish as narcissistic as he is would have been oblivious and unconcerned with the day to day affairs of the plebeians unless it effected his income.
Re: US- and Greek-owned tankers ablaze after Iran claims 'underwater drone' strike
#250Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's currently historically accurate. It's aged 250 years so far. Civil war? Elections. WWII? Elections. Covid? Elections.
In your world view is it possible for empires to fall? If so, why do you think this is not relevant to this particular empire at this particular time?
Obviously. All empires either have fallen or will fall.
That doesn't mean all extant empires are currently actively falling, and soon, will have fallen.
The US is less divided now than it was during the Civil War, which it survived. Why would it be more likely to fall now than then?