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Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#241

Post by waffletower »

jraby3 wrote: post #208
sigmoid10 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've actually started ignoring all these reports. There is so much bad faith going on in self-driving tech on all sides, it is nearly impossible to come up with clean and controlled data, much less objective opinions. At this point the only thing I'd be willing to base an opinion on is if insurers ask for higher (or lower) rates for self-driving. Because then I can be sure they have the data and did the math right to…

The biggest indicator for me that this headline isn't accurate is that Lemonade insurance just reduced the rate for Tesla FSD by 50%. They probably have accurate data and decided that Tesla's are significantly safer than human drivers.

There will be stronger evidence if more auto insurance companies follow suit.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#242

Post by pardon_me »

coryrc wrote: post #71
noncoml wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> other approaches, which use sensors like LIDAR as a crutch for their more rudimentary software. Do me a favor and take Musk and get on a plane with just a bunch of cameras instead of sevsors like radar, airspeed sensor, altimeter, GPS, ILS, etc. No need for those crutches. Do autopiloting like a real man!

Human-piloted planes have altimeters and airspeed indicators; the failure of which have caused many accidents. Tesla cars have speed sensors as well as GPS. (Altimeter and ILS not being relevant). I agree with Musk's claim they don't need LIDAR because human drivers don't; it's self-evidently true. But I think they _should_ have it because they can then be safer than humans; why settle for our current accident and de…

Following your logic (which is from the company marketing), why not remove GPS on the car in case they go wrong, as humans we don't need GPS? Cameras could go wrong too... then what happens?

Humans hear car/road noises, along with potential screams from outside or passenger shouts from inside, we sense vibrations, can respond to pedestrian or other driver hand signals, and constantly predict hazards through perceptions. How is the car doing all of this, if not for additional sensors and processing?

You can land a plane by eye, but what happens when there's fog? That's exactly like the situation in cars. LIDAR can provide extra sensory data where the cameras absolutely fail, just like our own eyes.

Knowing there's a solution to this, we are just to accept the car will fail where humans will? That's progress? Why wouldn't you want that extra data for such a small relative cost? LIDAR was already used on cars as a safety-only front collision avoidance system (that's how cheap it is to install).

In a properly designed system, adding data which is useful and cannot otherwise be inferred makes complete sense.

Given these cars are supposed to be so good that they will be working autonomously for you and pay themselves off in a year or two, the idea that LIDAR etc. is unnecessary and too expensive and will be lead to actively worse performance, is just insane logic for an "engineering" discussion.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#243

Post by DennisP »

SoftTalker wrote: post #167
DennisP wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a pretty convincing argument that Musk fried his brain with ketamine, written by a former ketamine abuser who saw a lot of familiar behavior. I don't think Musk is the same guy now that he was in the early days.

Sounds like a reach. Many people just loved the stuff he was doing and didn't really know much about him as a person. When a more complete picture (specifically his politics) emerged, and people decided they really didn't like the person, they had to resolve their cognitive dissonance by finding reasons they were right then and right now, instead of admitting they projected the person they imagined onto the person th…

Well one major change to his politics was his view on climate change. He also supported Obama in both elections, and had the self-control to keep pretty quiet about issues unrelated to his business.

I found the article I was talking about: https://alisoncrosthwait.substack.com/p/a-ketamine-addicts-p...

It says it's quite easy for ketamine use to get out of control without the users noticing, that they're are able to work effectively despite that, and that they tend to develop radically different and delusional beliefs. Given that Elon has admitted to self-administering ketamine, I don't think the idea should be dismissed.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#244

Post by cameldrv »

tsimionescu wrote: post #152
z7 wrote: post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

All of your arguments are expounded upon in the article itself, and their conclusions still hold, based on the publicly available data. The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly di…

Statistically 9 crashes is enough to draw reasonable inferences from. If they had the expected human rate of 3 over the period in question, the chance that they would actually get into 9 accidents is about 0.4%. And mind you, that’s with a safety driver. It would probably be much worse without one.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#245

Post by freejazz »

LunicLynx wrote: post #68
xnx wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla could share real/complete data at any time. The fact that they don't is likely and indicator the data does not look good.

You can do this with every topic. XYZ does not share this, so IT MUST BE BAD.

Are you familiar with the term "common sense"?

They say it ain't so common

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#246

Post by dzhiurgis »

z7 wrote: post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

This is from elektrek. You cannot believe anything you see from them regarding Tesla. Completely corrupt site.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#247

Post by eszed »

fc417fc802 wrote: post #181
estearum wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insurers? I can't be certain about auto insurers, but healthcare insurers just straight up sell the insurance claims data. I would be surprised if auto insurers haven't found that same "innovation."

That's a fair point, but I'll note that the one time I hit an inanimate object with my car I wasn't about to needlessly involve anyone. Fixed the damage to the vehicle myself and got on with life. So I think it's reasonable to wonder about the accuracy of estimates for humans. We (ie society) could really use a rigorous dataset for this.

Was going to say the same thing. I've had three of these sorts of "crashes": once was my fault, but no damage, so I apologized and we shook hands and drove away; once was their fault, but same result; third was unambiguously his fault, but I laughed and told him it was his lucky day that the scratch down the side of my car was only maybe the third worst on the beater I was driving at the time. That guy's bumper was all but ripped off, but (though we exchanged details) I never heard anything more about it, so I'm damn sure he never went to insurance. If you count only the (my fault) first of those I'm well ahead of the once every 200k miles average someone proposed up-thread - though if you count the time I ripped off the underlip of my bumper parking in front of a too-high curb, I'm probably back at par.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#248

Post by breve »

user34283 wrote: post #231
krisoft wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You don't get to throw out "fondness for throwing Nazi salutes" slander, based on an hoax immediately debunked at the time, and then act like you're doing democracy a favor. Just to clarify. This is the video context: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VfYjPzj1Xw Are you claiming that this is not an accurate depiction of what happened on stage? (That is the video is in some form fake. A deep fake, or special effects,…

Yes, "nazi salute" is obviously not an accurate description of the gesture Musk performed before saying "my heart goes out to you".

Here's a thought experiment for you.

If I stuck my middle finger up at you while saying "my heart goes out to you", what would you think?

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#249

Post by user34283 »

breve wrote: post #248
user34283 wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, "nazi salute" is obviously not an accurate description of the gesture Musk performed before saying "my heart goes out to you".

Here's a thought experiment for you. If I stuck my middle finger up at you while saying "my heart goes out to you", what would you think?

Probably not that you support the Nazi regime, as that would be a ridiculous thing to think.

Particularly so if a year before you visited Auschwitz and stated it was "tragic that humans could do this to other humans", and told us how you attended a Hebrew preschool and have a lot of Jewish friends.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#250

Post by queenkjuul »

jimmydddd wrote: post #230
zzzeek wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

oh hacker news, never change. "crashes 3x as much as human driven cars" but is that REALLY bad? who knows? pure gold

Humans driving cars crash more than humans walking on side walks. But is humans driving cars really bad?

Yes
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