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Tesla is committing automotive suicide

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#241

Post by breve »

EthanHeilman wrote: post #104
amelius wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that EVs are basically a solved problem. There isn't any technological advantage to be gained, since the technology in an EV is very basic (+) compared to ICE vehicles. So then it comes down to manufacturing, and there China is king. (+) Except for the battery, but that's a very long term battle with very tiny steps.

EVs are a solved problem, but as amelius notes the real tech is the battery. Tesla + Panasonic has a built in advantage in terms of battery manufacturing. Tesla has a massive amount of capital, if they put it into reducing and scaling manufacturing of vehicles and batteries, I think they could probably win. Now maybe Telsa has looked at the numbers and decided they can't win and are choosing to pivot rather than die…

> Tesla + Panasonic has a built in advantage in terms of battery manufacturing.

What advantage do they have over CATL, BYD, and LG?

CATL batteries perform better: https://electrek.co/2026/01/06/catl-ev-batteries-significant...

CATL is rolling out sodium ion batteries: https://electrek.co/2026/01/23/ev-battery-leader-plans-first...

CATL, BYD, and LG are developing solid state batteries. Everyone is.

> It is likely that the experience Tesla gets with Optimus robots will help other robotics companies

Why? Other robotics companies have been doing it for longer. Is Optimus better than Atlas:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9e0SQn9uUlw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIhzUnvi7Fw

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#242

Post by NetMageSCW »

mekdoonggi wrote: post #71
notfried wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that it doesn't need to be consumer to start off. You can build specialized robots that deliver value at a massive scale. Imagine a "Prep Cook" at a restaurant, there are millions of these around the world. If the Optimus can do that job for a price of $1,000/month, that's likely to be more efficient and better quality than a human can do. And there has to be many jobs like this.

A million robots making $1k a month is $12b a year, but you need to actually produce the robots, maintain them, train the AI, own the data centers. Also, if you take 1 million jobs, do you think that might cause demand to drop for services?

A general drop in services, yes. A drop in the services being provided by the robot, probably not. I doubt if many Prep Chefs are regularly eating at the restaurants they work at. When the robots are taking millions of jobs in all areas of service, there might be a problem.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#243

Post by NetMageSCW »

perardi wrote: post #65
nailer wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's hard and Tesla think they can do it. See 'reusable rockets' and 'having paralysed people control things with their minds' for other examples. HN often seem to think there's Elon fans downmodding things but it seems more like a case of irrational hatred.

Oh, well let me get in my sub-$30,000 Model S, with a swappable battery and full-self-driving capabilities, and take a fully automated trip to the Hyperloop downtown so I can catch a quick ride out to O’Hare so I can fly out to watch a successful Starship launch… …oh wait. I can’t. Because for all his successes, Musk has also sowed quite a lot of bullshit that has gone precisely nowhere.

Just like to point out Hyperloop wasn’t intended for local transportation and isn’t a Musk company, just some BOE speculation (BON?) that others have pursued.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#244

Post by FeloniousHam »

Analemma_ wrote: post #86
ultrarunner wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My brother bought a Tesla recently. They dicked him around with delivery, and he had to pay a ton to get charging infrastructure installed at his house, but it's fast so he's happy. On a recent visit, he finally showed me the car, and it was hilarious how janky the final product is. Everything seems cobbled together-- a good example is that there's apparently two separate voice assistants (plus his phone) and none of…

I have a 2022 Model 3, and the hilariously tragic part is that the voice assistant was great and basically never gave me any problems until they shoved Grok into it, whereupon it broke completely. I never use it anymore, they effectively removed a feature from my car.

Counterpoint: I like my Tesla, and I find the AI assistant diverting and useful. I have very little doubt the functionality of the limited on-board voice assistant will be merged into Grok (it's literally on the coming features).

Whether you like this or not, who cares? The pace of improvement in Tesla software compared to any other manufacturer is astonishing, and astonishingly good.

I have no love for the CEO, but my Model Y is a very interesting (and intuitive) car.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#245

Post by testing22321 »

the_sleaze_ wrote: post #4

BYD is slapping the EV industry around like a gorilla, Tesla simply cannot compete in any meaningful way. Waymo has achieved profit per unit and people are happy to see driver-less taxis in their city and pay for the service. Tesla also cannot justify valuations based on automotive sales/subscriptions alone - they were always going to have to pivot. They're in a tight spot and they need to do something drastic.

> BYD is slapping the EV industry around like a gorilla, Tesla simply cannot compete in any meaningful way

BYD is slapping every automaker around like a gorilla, and none can compete in a meaningful way.

Tarries mean they don’t have to. For now.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#246

Post by NetMageSCW »

etempleton wrote: post #170

Tesla could be a major automaker if they released cars like a normal functional automaker. Elon, for his many faults, was perhaps the best person in the world to get Tesla where it is today, but he is more likely to burn it to the ground than maintain success of the company. If Tesla built a more traditional mid size SUV it would probably sell nearly as well as the Model Y and if they created a new more modern Model…

That’s why so many credit Gwynne Shotwell with SpaceX’s continued success. Unfortunately Elon didn’t look or didn’t want an equivalent for Tesla.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#247

Post by scottyah »

alterom wrote: post #162
hinkley wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it’s boring.

Not in principle, mind you. It's just that the company has stalled every major project they started, and, so far, completed a rather shitty an uninspiring one in Vegas that has no reason to exist in the first place (it's subway but with Teslas instead of trains). Its only purpose is to prevent the money from being spent on viable public transportation projects, and in that sense, it's very interesting that it got so…

Or, digging tunnels is a lot harder than expected and there have been no big technical leaps to change that. The idea is great, but only if the cost goes down and digging speed goes up by a lot.

I assume you got a cut of the $23bn my state took with the promise of a high-speed rail, which afaik is the only "viable(?!)" transportation project that could have been affected by this, or you just hate subways/subterranean transportation progress?

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#248

Post by testing22321 »

p-o wrote: post #2

What makes this move even more incredulous is that none of the two market they want to move towards are proven markets: - Waymo is generating less than 150m in 2025. - Consumer robotics is an absolute unknown. How can the transition be rationally justified? Let alone the valuation.

EVs were a very unproven market when Tesla started and it was commonly accepted they didn’t have a hope in hell.

I think musk knows you gotta take risks and skate to where the puck is going, not where it is now.

If he’s wrong, it’s all over of course.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#249

Post by NetMageSCW »

BeetleB wrote: post #82

I think we're at the point where there is a bit of healthy competition in the EV space (even when excluding the Chinese), that Teslas are mostly just symbolic. People still buy Teslas. But in my circle, most have bought other EVs (and not just because of Elon). Teslas are no longer the obvious superior choice.

I think there is still a (brief) remaining window where Tesla has an advantage in the US, but it is too late for them to start developing new models to take advantage of it - and that is NACS and the SuperCharger network. Now that new EVs from everyone else are coming out with NACS and are on-boarding plug and charge (and, hopefully, mapping integrated with charging availability), all US EVs will be just as easy as Teslas to take on road trips.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#250

Post by testing22321 »

SequoiaHope wrote: post #205

Amazing that Tesla announced the next generation roadster and sold pre-orders which I think cost $100k and then just never released it and there seems to be no indication (last I checked) that it ever will be.

Yesterday on the earnings call Elon said the reveal is in April “hopefully”.
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