Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

241–250 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#241

Post by jorblumesea »

I'm surprised that people are so surprised by this. Funds operate with risk management models and practices. As the US becomes more unstable, politically, these will weigh in on how much money people keep in US markets. US threats to annex Canada and invade greenland. US kidnapping foreign heads of state. Actively using federal agents as shock troops against blue cities. All of this has true economic impact, either real in terms of losses but also USD as a stable currency run by legitimate people.

Would they implement capital flight controls? if you invest in the US, can you get your money out? No one knows but it seems increasingly less likely. Red lines are being crossed weekly.

The country is heading towards a decline into a developing world style authoritarian dictatorship.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#242

Post by glemion43 »

storus wrote: post #233
softwaredoug wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not just that This is a gradual decline. From 70% in the 90s to 60% today. Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s. People can argue over EU economic stability, but it’s there as reasonable option.

EU can easily pull the plug on Euro as a reserve currency if they confiscate the money of a certain country and give it to another one. That would be the "front fell off" moment for Euro.

[flagged]

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#243

Post by thatguy0900 »

chrisco255 wrote: post #209
legitster wrote: post #175

It's no secret that our current US administration is envious of China. So in no small part they probably want to model the US Dollar after the Renminbi. Drop the value internationally to incentivize American exports, and manipulate the hell out of it. (Hence why they have dropped inflation as a political issue - some in the administration are essentially rooting for inflation to get much, much worse). It should go wi…

Nobody is cheering for inflation to get worse, they are celebrating it being held down to 2.7% after higher inflation a few years ago. The U.S. is a net exporter of oil and food and self-sufficent for majority of its mineral needs as well. There is no need for U.S. to crash its currency to incentivize domestic production, it can just impose tariffs on imports to do so.

The problem with tariffs is really just trumps complete instability. Why would anyone invest in domestic manufactoring when Trump wildly flip flops on all tariff policy using it as a diplomatic punishment and reward system? Especially when his tariffs in general are legally questionable at best and the other half of us politics are against them just in principal. Imagine investing millions in a domestic factory and then trump gets a personalized jet from some random nation so the tariffs you were depending on for your profit margin are gone. Or Trump loses the midterms and now tariffs as a policy are gone. Unless Trump both becomes a dictator and sets the tariffs in stone without changing them too much, or democrats come out in wide support of tariffs themselves, I don't see how you could use them to invest your money.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#244

Post by mrcwinn »

snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

This is an article about multi-decade trends but you’re associating recent current events with the behavior. Consider reading the article.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#245

Post by HWR_14 »

outside1234 wrote: post #10

If Trump announces some toady lunatic to run the Fed, watch out below, because the dollar is going to crash. I know I have moved a bunch of money into international stocks and currency and I suspect when the right leaning crowd finally catches on it will be a stampede.

What's the difference between an international stock and a US based multinational in your analysis?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#246

Post by the_real_cher »

snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

Our federal deficit interest rate is like 15% of government expenditures.

The dollar being the reserve currency which leads to demand for the dollar keeps the dollar from deflating.

But as people no longer demand the dollar because they don't want to support a imperialistic government what happens?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#247

Post by marcosdumay »

stickfigure wrote: post #166
hintymad wrote: post #135

Honest question: isn't it just a matter of time before US dollar loses its dominance, given that US has been losing its manufacturing business? I mean, can people really keep investing in the US market if they need less and less stuff produced by the US?

Why is manufacturing so special? As opposed to something like software? Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time.

> Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time.

Well, at least up to 2024...

I think when people run the next number, there will be a surprise there.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#248

Post by RealityVoid »

echelon wrote: post #195
renewiltord wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. People are actively trying to repair something which cannot be fixed. Now that the US century is over, the only way forward is for the US to use present military power as a cudgel. Given that the multipolar world is nigh, the only path forward is through. If America and her erstwhile allies are no longer aligned, then any attempt by America to repair this is doomed. Consequently, Trump’s approach is the only…

> Consequently, Trump’s approach is the only way forward. It's the DoD. Prior to Trump's actions, the American-led "world order" seemed to work, even if we couldn't get China to agree to a "Bretton Woods 2.0". Biden tried diplomacy with the EU. He tried to get them to agree to a renewed US-led world order, but it wasn't working. The EU decided to play the US and China against each other to improve its own standing, w…

> The EU decided to play the US and China against each other to improve its own standing, which is why the US is now moving away from the EU.

This is sanewashig this whole thing. The fact is, the US is moving away from the EU because Trump doesn't like democracies. It's that simple. You have a large percentage of your population in what is essentially a cult and you have givem them the reigns.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#250

Post by maxglute »

Well the real question: Is the US losing interest in reserve dominance?

Contrary to popular opinion, IMO PRC doesn't want reserve currency trade off (triffin / trade deficits etc). What PRC wants is to secure her own interests with RMB, which is mostly happening, energy contracts, lots of bilateral trade happening in RMB now. What PRC also wants is to make maintaining reserve USD onerous, i.e. high rates, high debt servicing... which already indirectly limits US in real ways like reduced defense acquisitions in last few years.

PRC wants USD exorbitant privilege to be just exorbitant.

Then US incentivized to dump system (etc debasing) which will fuck over global USD users and tank US reputation even more. A lot of US actions make sense when you realize Trump doesn't want to deal with an increasingly unprofitable global utility. PRC doesn't want to step in to build new pipelines, they want to see US (mis)manage existing US owned plumbing that everyone is using so poorly it fucks up things at home and for everyone else, meanwhile PRC has comfy off the grid setup for herself and her guests.

Post reply on HN