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2025 was the third hottest year on record

economist.com

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Re: 2025 was the third hottest year on record

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nevermind satellites, just diff the temp records from say, 1950-2000 and the ones reporting that data today and there's a lot of jank. urbanization around the thermometers also makes it appear as though global temperatures are rising, but all the data really says is that cities are heat islands. first order: verify satellite data. Secondly, move all sensors to locations where they are unaffected by heat islanding and…

Where are you finding where all the sensors locations are?

I'm not sure i know the exact locations, but NASA and NOAA do, and people who have seen the data and locations (and therefore know what is rural or not) say things like this about realclimate.org's handwave of UHI:

> "Because urban areas still only represent 3-4% of the global land surface, this should not substantially influence global temperatures.

> However, most of the weather stations used for calculating the land component of global temperatures are located in urban or semi-urban areas. This is especially so for the stations with the longest temperature records. One reason why is because it is harder to staff and maintain a weather station in an isolated, rural location for a century or longer."

further from a paper critiquing the GHCN model's homogenization algorithm:

> "When they were compiling the Global Historical Climatology Network dataset, the National Climatic Data Center included some basic station metadata, i.e., data describing the station and its environment. For each station, they provided the station name, country, latitude, longitude and elevation. They also provided a number of classifications to describe the environment of the station - whether it was an airport station or not; if it was on an island, near the coast or near a lake; and what the average ecosystem of the stations’ surroundings was, e.g., desert, ice, forest, etc"

oh and an interesting note, if you are wondering "well, how many fully rural stations do we have data for at least 95% of the 'last 100 years?"

eight.

globally.

Re: 2025 was the third hottest year on record

#242
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

picked four stations at random[0] and it's just precip numbers, no temps, no humidity, no insolation, etc. are you sure you linked what you think you linked? [0] /by-station and then unclutched my scroll wheel and spun it for arbitrary amount of time, re-engaged clutch and clicked what was under the cursor. repeated 3 more times. i did a fifth, where the one i was looking at was identical to the fourth one, but had a…

Quite a scientific data analysis you've done there. NASA must be completely mistaken!

HAHA you're completely right! or, and this is just some advice: don't tell strangers to look up data, link the data, and it not be what you said it was.

If i promise you punch and pie, you'd be pretty upset if it wasn't.

Re: 2025 was the third hottest year on record

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and scientists edit the historical temperatures because of, and i hope you can see my eyeroll here "anomalous readings" - but they're overwhelmingly erroneous in only one direction. that's strange.

Given the amount of noise and normalization , I would like to see that claim better qualified. That’s what I’m calling attention to. Being more formal with the claims , and transparent about the records origins

i'm literally in the middle of trying to parse a couple of papers that examine the methodology of at least the NOAA homogenization model.

did you know there's only eight sensors, globally, that we have data for >95% of the last 100 years, that are labelled as "fully rural"? so this means that 99.9% of the stations must therefore be, at least, more likely to be adjusted, doesn't it? The entire premise that UHI is irrelevant because they "normalized" the 99.9% and it showed it was irrelevant is... i don't know, it's something, though.

Re: 2025 was the third hottest year on record

#244
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These arguments give me the same vibe that the reelecting trump arguments had prior to the last election. Obviously Trump is operating on a much faster timeline than climate change but I'd expect the same behaviour (i.e. all the sceptics vanishing) once we really start to feel the impacts of it and arguments like these lose the last final shreds of plausibility. I can't quite figure out the angle of why either. Are t…

Thinking that anyone who disagrees with you isn't real sounds concerning. You should see a psychiatrist about that, in case it gets worse. Anyway. You say skeptics will vanish when we "really start" to feel the impact of it. When? Pick a date. Man up, commit. Because everyone who picked a date in the past had their beliefs invalidated. The skeptics win, every single time. https://web.archive.org/web/20100113183137/ht…

Honestly, you really should seek professional help, you're so far adrift from reality? What happened? How did you end up like this?

Re: 2025 was the third hottest year on record

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the amount of noise and normalization , I would like to see that claim better qualified. That’s what I’m calling attention to. Being more formal with the claims , and transparent about the records origins

i'm literally in the middle of trying to parse a couple of papers that examine the methodology of at least the NOAA homogenization model. did you know there's only eight sensors, globally, that we have data for >95% of the last 100 years, that are labelled as "fully rural"? so this means that 99.9% of the stations must therefore be, at least, more likely to be adjusted, doesn't it? The entire premise that UHI is irre…

I agree it's suspicious. Rather than dismiss it altogether, I'm trying to understand the e2e process. i.e. divide 1880-present into Epochs and understand what %-age of coverage, resolution & how precise were the instruments

Re: 2025 was the third hottest year on record

#246
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thinking that anyone who disagrees with you isn't real sounds concerning. You should see a psychiatrist about that, in case it gets worse. Anyway. You say skeptics will vanish when we "really start" to feel the impact of it. When? Pick a date. Man up, commit. Because everyone who picked a date in the past had their beliefs invalidated. The skeptics win, every single time. https://web.archive.org/web/20100113183137/ht…

Honestly, you really should seek professional help, you're so far adrift from reality? What happened? How did you end up like this?

Notice how everything I say comes with sources and facts, and every reply like yours is an ad hominem concern troll? That's how. If you want to win arguments you have to step up and respond to facts.

Re: 2025 was the third hottest year on record

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i'm literally in the middle of trying to parse a couple of papers that examine the methodology of at least the NOAA homogenization model. did you know there's only eight sensors, globally, that we have data for >95% of the last 100 years, that are labelled as "fully rural"? so this means that 99.9% of the stations must therefore be, at least, more likely to be adjusted, doesn't it? The entire premise that UHI is irre…

I agree it's suspicious. Rather than dismiss it altogether, I'm trying to understand the e2e process. i.e. divide 1880-present into Epochs and understand what %-age of coverage, resolution & how precise were the instruments

after you do all of that, see if you can find pictures of the stations, the little structure the old ones were in are called "CRS" which stands for Cotton Region Shelter. these were the old liquid-in-glass style thermometers. The new ones have multi-plate radiation shields to house the thermistor and protect it from direct sunlight while allowing airflow. i guess some people say they look like a beehive, but they're a cylinder.

so the CRS ones could be put anywhere. the new MMTS sensors had a pre-cut length of cable for installation, as the base unit was to be situated indoors.

So CRS could be out in the middle of a field, where the MMTS are generally within 30' of a building.

Maybe we should throw out all the MMTS data?

Now, though, someone finally realized, and they're installing wireless MMTS - minimum-maximum temperature sensor, tells the min and max over the last 24 hours, and you record those numbers once per day, at a specific Time-of-Observation. Changing the time-of-observation requires de-biasing the data, too!

Re: 2025 was the third hottest year on record

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree it's suspicious. Rather than dismiss it altogether, I'm trying to understand the e2e process. i.e. divide 1880-present into Epochs and understand what %-age of coverage, resolution & how precise were the instruments

after you do all of that, see if you can find pictures of the stations, the little structure the old ones were in are called "CRS" which stands for Cotton Region Shelter. these were the old liquid-in-glass style thermometers. The new ones have multi-plate radiation shields to house the thermistor and protect it from direct sunlight while allowing airflow. i guess some people say they look like a beehive, but they're…

i agree that the apparatus varies tremendously over the decades. Real science is hard work and I applaud environmental scientists for their efforts. We need to be careful about qualifying "raw data" since software engineers usually stop at a textfile and forget about the origins.

Re: 2025 was the third hottest year on record

#249
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you're right this is much to complicated and important for anyone to understand. just take our word for it that we have to make things more expensive, raise taxes, and restrict freedoms to fix it.

If you are serious about this, you know full well the data is out there. So stop asking for it and just go get it, go write some code and process it, then come back here and report your results.

i went and got the raw data, wrote some code to parse it and then process it, and my results:

MMTS locations are so close to heat sources and heat sinks, at least in the US, that any sort of debiasing appears to be a "guess."

statistically. 96% of them. thankfully NWS/NOAA/NASA/etc have started deploying wireless sensors, but unless they admonish the volunteers for placing their (NWS/NOAA/etc) dumb MMTS designs so close to heat sinks and sources, as if it was their fault, demanding that volunteers move the sensors to a location 20 meters from said sinks and sources...

you're just gunna have and continue to have decades of literally unusable data. But hey, hottest year on record!

I am not mad at volunteers. it isn't their fault the MMTS devices only came with 10 meters or whatever of cabling for the indoor-outdoor data. I would, however, like to see the rationale and meeting notes and design documents (and the reasoning and arguments thereof) for the MMTS; explicitly for use tracking climate trends.

anecdote: i have multi channel humidity and temp sensors that log to SD card. they have been logging for a long time. My outdoor sensors, as well as our cars, etc, show that our location is always 7F cooler than the nearby metro (20 miles) during the warm months. If we used my temperature data, i'd believe the trends. if we use the temperature data from the sensors they use at the airport, it's going to show warming - and i submit you can't de-bias that using the methods used for the IPCC and other reports. and when i say 7F cooler here than there, i mean on the thermometers on our cars (and multimeters, or even a liquid-in-glass carried around!). I also mean my location is consistently cooler than the forecast temperatures for the city.

i understand weather is not climate.

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