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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#241

Post by MandieD »

kccqzy wrote: post #208
wmf wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they are extremely loud, consume 8-10 kW, and probably cost $20K used.

The 8-10kW isn’t a big deal anymore given the prevalence of electric vehicles and charging them at home. A decade ago very few homes have this kind of hookup. Now it’s reasonably common, and if not, electricians wouldn’t bat an eye on installing it.

In the winter in northern Europe or the colder parts of North America, as part of a radiator system? Kind of works!

Any other time and place? The power to run it, plus the power to cool it.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#242

Post by edm0nd »

tim-tday wrote: post #69

Sneak preview of the TSMC shortage that will sweep the world in 2027 when China takes Taiwan and the TSMC scuttles their chip fabs on the island. I don’t know the hedge to position against this but I’m pretty sure China will make good on its promise.

I'm not sure how true it is or not but I heard that TSMC has the ability to remotely destroy all of their main fab equipment in the event the Chinese are invading Taiwan.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#243

Post by FuriouslyAdrift »

NonHyloMorph wrote: post #204
FuriouslyAdrift wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

xLight is coming up quickly... https://www.xlight.com/

"Our system produces 4X more power that enables better lithographic patterning, which is necessary to manufacture chips with smaller and more efficient feature sizes. In addition to being more powerful, our FEL system has programmable light characteristics that improve current capabilities and enable next-generation lithography (e.g., shorter wavelengths) - uniquely enabling the extension of Moore’s Law for decades.…

There's Canon with nanoimprint [1] and Rapidus [2] may be working on something

[1] https://spectrum.ieee.org/nanoimprint-lithography [2] https://www.rapidus.inc/en/

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#244

Post by JKCalhoun »

bob1029 wrote: post #64
JanSolo wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that Apple is not considering opening up its own fabs. Tim Cook is all about vertical-integration and they have a mountain of cash that they could use to fund the initial startup capex.

Semiconductor manufacturing is not an incremental step for Apple. It's an entirely new kind of vertical. They do not have the resources to do this. If they could they would have by now.

How do they not have the resources? Certainly they have the cash resources.

At this point it would be corporate suicide if they were not outlining a strategy to own their own fab(s).

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#245

Post by paulmist »

827a wrote: post #178
Fiveplus wrote: post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

I would also bet significant money that Apple's unique market position will give them the confidence to invest in in-house fabrication before 2030.

Would it be feasible for them to buy Intel instead? Starting your own foundry would likely take over a decade.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#246

Post by JKCalhoun »

DetroitThrow wrote: post #73
xnx wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$20 billion for a new fab is a lot of money, even to Apple.

Closer to $40b for a new fab for an established company to do it all correctly. It's a much more major investment to open a fab without ever doing it before, then continually use the brain power/institutional knowledge you've built up to stay near the forefront of fab tech, and then basically have weird incentives to build a foundry for only your products rather than the world at large. You're setting yourself up for…

Is that true? I guess what I mean is, is it $40B if you are trying to replicate the scale of a TSMC fab? Or could you do it for considerably less if the fab is initially designed to the needs of single customer (Apple)?

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#247

Post by JKCalhoun »

HardCodedBias wrote: post #72
xnx wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$20 billion for a new fab is a lot of money, even to Apple.

If it were only 20B then Apple would jump at the chance. As would almost innumerable others.

Well, if the future of your company depends on a fab, twice $20B is cheap.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#248

Post by jpk2f2 »

alt227 wrote: post #213
jobs_throwaway wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TMSC's Arizona fab is up and running producing 4nm chips There's ~a dozen in the works or under construction TMSC plans to have 2-3nm fabs operational in the next 2-3 years So we're 2-3 years behind the standard (currently 2nm), and further behind on the bleeding edge sub-2nm fabs

> TMSC's Arizona fab is up and running producing 4nm chips Are the majority of the staff still shipped in from Asia?

No. It was originally 50%, unclear what the current numbers are (it was supposed to decrease over time as they train local replacements).

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#249

Post by ezst »

2025codecracker wrote: post #34

It used to be „don’t use Wikipedia as an academic source“ now it’s the same wit ChatGPT

Quite the opposite actually, way too many people treat LLMs as oracles, all the while they are fundamentally unreliable at knowledge storage and retrieval. If there was legitimate doubt in the early days as to whether a collaborative encyclopedia could self organise and self censor into a reliable source, the engineering of LLMs makes the opposite a certainty.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#250

Post by michaelt »

epolanski wrote: post #229
swiftcoder wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Regardless of that, fab industry is based on a short and mid term auction-like planning Not a system that necessarily works all that well if one player has a short-term ability to vastly outspending all the rest. You can't let all your other customers die just because Nvidia is flush with cash this quarter...

That's exactly how it is supposed to work and Apple has outspent competitors for ages getting prio. TSMC isn't running a charity, it sells capacity to the highest bidder. Of course customers as big as Apple will have a relationship and insane volumes that they will be guaranteed important quotes regardless.

Why should it be short term, though?

If it takes 4 years to build a new fab and Apple is willing to commit to paying pay the price of an entire fab, for chips to be delivered in 4 years time - why not take the order and build the capacity?

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