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TimeCapsuleLLM: LLM trained only on data from 1800-1875

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Re: TimeCapsuleLLM: LLM trained only on data from 1800-1875

#241

Would be interesting to train a cutting edge model with a cut off date of say 1900 and then prompt it about QM and relativity with some added context. If the model comes up with anything even remotely correct it would be quite a strong evidence that LLMs are a path to something bigger if not then I think it is time to go back to the drawing board.

It's already been done, without the model being aware of it, see https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.09742. They also made it think it was Hitler (not MechaHitler, the other guy), and other craziness.

It's a relief to think that we're not trusting these things for stuff like financial advice, medical advice, mental health counselling, ...

Re: TimeCapsuleLLM: LLM trained only on data from 1800-1875

#243
post #14

Could this be an experiment to show how likely LLMs are to lead to AGI, or at least intelligence well beyond our current level? If you could only give it texts and info and concepts up to Year X, well before Discovery Y, could we then see if it could prompt its way to that discovery?

It'd be difficult to prove that you hadn't leaked information to the model. The big gotcha of LLMs is that you train them on BIG corpuses of data, which means it's hard to say "X isn't in this corpus", or "this corpus only contains Y". You could TRY to assemble a set of training data that only contains text from before a certain date, but it'd be tricky as heck to be SURE about it. Ways data might leak to the model t…

Just Ctrl+F the data. /s

Re: TimeCapsuleLLM: LLM trained only on data from 1800-1875

#244
I’m sure I’m not the only one, but it seriously bothers me, the high ranking discussion and comments under this post about whether or not a model trained on data from this time period (or any other constrained period) could synthesize it and postulate “new” scientific ideas that we now accept as true in the future. The answer is a resounding “no”. Sorry for being so blunt, but that is the answer that is a consensus among experts, and you will come to the same answer after a relatively small mount of focus & critical thinking on the issue of how LLMs & other categories of “AI” work.

Re: TimeCapsuleLLM: LLM trained only on data from 1800-1875

#245
post #244

I’m sure I’m not the only one, but it seriously bothers me, the high ranking discussion and comments under this post about whether or not a model trained on data from this time period (or any other constrained period) could synthesize it and postulate “new” scientific ideas that we now accept as true in the future. The answer is a resounding “no”. Sorry for being so blunt, but that is the answer that is a consensus a…

I understand where you are coming from, but not every field is hard science. In many fields we deal with some amount of randomness and attribute causality to correlations even if we do not have as much as a speculative hypothesis for a mechanism of action behind the supposed causality.

LLMs trained on data up to a strictly constrained point are our best vehicle to have a view (however biased) on something, detached from its origins and escape a local minima. The speculation is that such LLMs could help us look at correlational links accepted as truths and help us devise an alternative experimental path or craft arguments for such experiments.

Imagine you have an LLM trained on papers up to some threshold, feed your manuscript with correlational evidence and have an LLM point out uncontrolled confounders or something like that.

Re: TimeCapsuleLLM: LLM trained only on data from 1800-1875

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would find things in there that were already close to QM and relativity. The Michelson-Morley experiment was 1887 and Lorentz transformations came along in 1889. The photoelectric effect (which Einstein explained in terms of photons in 1905) was also discovered in 1887. William Clifford (who _died_ in 1889) had notions that foreshadowed general relativity: "Riemann, and more specifically Clifford, conjectured tha…

It's only easy to see precursors in hindsight. The Michelson-Morley tale is a great example of this. In hindsight, their experiment was screaming relativity, because it demonstrated that the speed of light was identical from two perspectives where it's very difficult to explain without relativity. Lorentz contraction was just a completely ad-hoc proposal to maintain the assumptions of the time (luminiferous aether in…

With the passage of time more and more things have been discovered through precision. Through identifying small errors in some measurement and pursuing that to find the cause.

Re: TimeCapsuleLLM: LLM trained only on data from 1800-1875

#247

Would be interesting to train a cutting edge model with a cut off date of say 1900 and then prompt it about QM and relativity with some added context. If the model comes up with anything even remotely correct it would be quite a strong evidence that LLMs are a path to something bigger if not then I think it is time to go back to the drawing board.

You would find things in there that were already close to QM and relativity. The Michelson-Morley experiment was 1887 and Lorentz transformations came along in 1889. The photoelectric effect (which Einstein explained in terms of photons in 1905) was also discovered in 1887. William Clifford (who _died_ in 1889) had notions that foreshadowed general relativity: "Riemann, and more specifically Clifford, conjectured tha…

They were close, but it required the best people bashing their heads against each other for years until they got it.

Re: TimeCapsuleLLM: LLM trained only on data from 1800-1875

#248
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Could this be an experiment to show how likely LLMs are to lead to AGI, or at least intelligence well beyond our current level? You'd have to be specific what you mean by AGI: all three letters mean a different thing to different people, and sometimes use the whole means something not present in the letters. > If you could only give it texts and info and concepts up to Year X, well before Discovery Y, could we then…

> You'd have to be specific what you mean by AGI Well, they obviously can't. AGI is not science, it's religion. It has all the trappings of religion: prophets, sacred texts, origin myth, end-of-days myth and most importantly, a means to escape death. Science? Well, the only measure to "general intelligence" would be to compare to the only one which is the human one but we have absolutely no means by which to describe…

> And no, the "brain is a computer" is not a scientific description, it's a metaphor.

I have trouble comprehending this. What is "computer" to you?

Re: TimeCapsuleLLM: LLM trained only on data from 1800-1875

#249
post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's only easy to see precursors in hindsight. The Michelson-Morley tale is a great example of this. In hindsight, their experiment was screaming relativity, because it demonstrated that the speed of light was identical from two perspectives where it's very difficult to explain without relativity. Lorentz contraction was just a completely ad-hoc proposal to maintain the assumptions of the time (luminiferous aether in…

With the passage of time more and more things have been discovered through precision. Through identifying small errors in some measurement and pursuing that to find the cause.

It's not precision that's the problem, but understanding when something has been falsified. For instance the Lorentz transformations work as a perfectly fine ad-hoc solution to Michelson's discovery. All it did was make the aether a bit more esoteric in nature. Why do you then not simply shrug, accept it, and move on? Perhaps even toss some accolades towards Lorentz for 'solving' the puzzle? Michelson himself certainly felt there was no particularly relevant mystery outstanding.

For another parallel our understanding of the big bang was, and probably is, wrong. There are a lot of problems with the traditional view of the big bang with the horizon problem [1] being just one among many - areas in space that should not have had time to interact behave like they have. So this was 'solved' by an ad hoc solution - just make the expansion of the universe go into super-light speed for a fraction of a second at a specific moment, slow down, then start speeding up again (cosmic inflation [2]) - and it all works just fine. So you know what we did? Shrugged, accepted it, and even gave Guth et al a bunch of accolades for 'solving' the puzzle.

This is the problem - arguably the most important principle of science is falsifiability. But when is something falsified? Because in many situations, probably the overwhelming majority, you can instead just use one falsification to create a new hypothesis with that nuance integrated into it. And as science moves beyond singular formulas derived from clear principles or laws and onto broad encompassing models based on correlations from limited observations, this becomes more and more true.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_problem

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_inflation

Re: TimeCapsuleLLM: LLM trained only on data from 1800-1875

#250

Would be interesting to train a cutting edge model with a cut off date of say 1900 and then prompt it about QM and relativity with some added context. If the model comes up with anything even remotely correct it would be quite a strong evidence that LLMs are a path to something bigger if not then I think it is time to go back to the drawing board.

That’s how p-hacking works (or doesn’t work). This is analogous to shooting an arrow and then drawing a target around where it lands.
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