Winter is coming[1]
A new AI winter is coming?
241–250 of 301 posts
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#242I'm skeptical for this reason: at the time of the first AI winter, AI was niche. Today, it is mainstream; vast numbers of consumers are using AI.
AI in consumer hands is no longer just a niche program in a corner of your company or government organization that can defund and shut down.
If the current purveyors of big cloud AI were to fold, their replacements are waiting in the wings to pick up the demand somehow.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#243Earlier quoted context omitted.
It astonishes me how people can make categorical judgements on things as hard to define as 'understanding'. I would say that, except for the observable and testable performance, what else can you say about understanding? It is a fact that LLMs are getting better at many tasks. From their performance, they seem to have an understanding of say python. The mechanistic way this understanding arises is different than huma…
How do you know what kind of "understanding" a python has? Why python and not a lizard? Or a bird? What method do you use for evaluating this? Does a typical python do what you tell your ai agent to do?... C'mon, this comparison seems to be very, very unscientific. No offense...
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Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#244Earlier quoted context omitted.
It astonishes me how people can make categorical judgements on things as hard to define as 'understanding'. I would say that, except for the observable and testable performance, what else can you say about understanding? It is a fact that LLMs are getting better at many tasks. From their performance, they seem to have an understanding of say python. The mechanistic way this understanding arises is different than huma…
How do you know what kind of "understanding" a python has? Why python and not a lizard? Or a bird? What method do you use for evaluating this? Does a typical python do what you tell your ai agent to do?... C'mon, this comparison seems to be very, very unscientific. No offense...
I'm pretty sure parent poster meant they understand Python, the programming language, not that they have the understanding of the animal python.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#245Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 3 things we know about the AI revolution in 2025: > - LLMs are amazing, but they have reached a plateau. AGI is not within reach. Source/citation?
Shouldn't you be looking for a job? - Dad
i may be a wallflower here, but please do more with your account than leave this one comment. think about posting! show us what interests you. spread some karma around.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#246Not quite. The core capability of extracting a meaning out of unstructured text and media, and the reverse of it, would remain as a bedrock.
Anything else built around it (agents etc) might be challenged by the realities.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
> something fundamental has changed that enables a computer to pretty effectively understand natural language. You understand how the tech works right? It's statistics and tokens. The computer understands nothing. Creating "understanding" would be a breakthrough. Edit: I wasn't trying to be a jerk. I sincerely wasn't. I don't "understand" how LLMs "understand" anything. I'd be super pumped to learn that bit. I don't…
As someone who was an engineer on the original Copilot team, yes I understand how tech works. You don’t know how your own mind “understands” something. No one on the planet can even describe how human understanding works. Yes, LLMs are vast statistical engines but that doesn’t mean something interesting isn’t going on. At this point I’d argue that humans “hallucinate” and/or provide wrong answers far more often than…
> At this point I’d argue that humans “hallucinate” and/or provide wrong answers far more often than SOTA LLMs.
Humans are remarkably consistent in their behavior in trained environments. That's why we trust humans to perform dangerous, precise and high stakes tasks. Humans have the meta-cognitive abilities to understand when their abilities are insufficient or when they need to reinforce their own understanding, to increase their resilience.
If you genuinely believe humans hallucinate more often, then I don't think you actually do understand how copilot works.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#248Earlier quoted context omitted.
Other people do not, hence the danger and the responsibility of not giving them the wrong impression of what they're dealing with.
Sorry, I'm failing to see the danger of this choice of language? People who aren't really technical don't care about these nuances. It's not going to sway their opinion one way or another.
It promotes the view that LLM:s are minds.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#249Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't that what the author means? "it still requires genuine expertise to spot the hallucinations" "works very well if you do know what you are doing"
But it can work well even if you don't know what you are doing (or don't look at the impl). For example, build a TUI or GUI with Claude Code while only giving it feedback on the UX/QA side. I've done it many times despite 20 years of software experience. -- Some stuff just doesn't justify me spending my time credentializing in the impl. Hallucinations that lead to code that doesn't work just get fixed. Most code I wr…
Have you checked your package imports lately?
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#250Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you're missing the point of "AI winter". It's not about how good the products are now. It's about how quickly the products are improving and creating the potential for profit. That's what drives investment. 3 things we know about the AI revolution in 2025: - LLMs are amazing, but they have reached a plateau. AGI is not within reach. - LLM investment has sacrificed many hundreds of billions of dollars, much of…
>> "LLMs have reached a plateau." you should look at benchmarks such as ARC which went from "needs 10 years, currently at 0%" to almost solved within the least year. Also there is a revolution happening in math which the layman might be missing.
For ARC v1 it was found that it was much less resistant to brute force than intended/designed. This was improved in v2, which LLMs are currently doing less good at. Note also that ARC tasks are explicitly designed to be slightly-out-of-reach, things that are quite simple for humans, but current models are pretty bad at - designed to measure and enable progress.
But yeah there are many interesting approaches, and ARC is interesting to follow both because it attempts to measure ability to adapt to new takas ("fluid intelligence"), and because we have not saturated it yet.