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Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

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Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#241
You don't just need to decide that Nvidia is overvalued by the market and will crash in price to make money on a short position.

You need to time the crash. If you're off, it could still crash and you could spend more money sustaining the position than you'd make. Or you could end up getting margin called, not just by semi-impotent private investors as Michael Burry was, but by the platform you're trading on itself. "You've lost too much money so far based on the current valuation, so we're going to seize this option and you'll owe us the balance". Trading at high leverages with Daddy's money, people on /r/wallstreetbets sometimes get margin called and end up owing much, much more money than they put in.

Before putting any money in, make damn sure you're able to write at least a 101-level summary of the different types of trades.

I did this in February 2020, and then bet a modest amount on the proposition "People keep saying that COVID isn't going to be a big deal, and I think they're very wrong". I still managed to lose out because I didn't foresee the Federal Reserve bombing the market with freshly printed cash. I lost it all. But what I didn't do, is end up owing millions of dollars I don't have to the brokerage, because I stuck to buying put options rather than selling call options or shorting stocks outright.

Timing aside? To what extent the Federal Reserve would intervene in an NVDA price collapse is an open question, because at this point a collapse in AI investment would threaten the solvency of entirely unrelated financial institutions.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#242
“When I hear short sellers attacking what I believe is clearly the most important software company in America, therefore in the world, in terms of our impact, … it just is super triggering,” Karp said.

Now, now. Palantir received social security from In-Q-Tel during its incubation. Alan Wade was the CIO of the CIA and had previously founded Chiliad with Christine Maxwell (sister of that Maxwell).

On the other hand, Karp knows Lutnick (who lived next to Epstein) from Haverford College. It's a small world. So with this administration bets against Palantir might be risky.

But "the most important software company in America"? Please, many here have said that it started out as a database search company (like Chiliad).

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#243
Article is misleading/wrong on the sizing:

> Scion bought roughly $187.6 million in puts on Nvidia and $912 million in puts on Palantir, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

But 13F reports the market value of the underlying shares for options, not the premium paid for the options

All we know is at time of filing he has 10k NVDA puts and 50k PLTR puts. We don't know the strike price or the duration or how much he paid

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#244

His track record since “the big short” has been horrific. That’s the problem with being a perma-bear, eventually the market dips but you missed out on extraordinary gains vastly out weighing your negative thesis. It’s a hellva lot easier to be bullish American companies then try and time draw downs. Doesn’t make any sense.

I am interested in quantitative / probabilistic analysis on your thesis. Where should I go look?

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#245

“When I hear short sellers attacking what I believe is clearly the most important software company in America, therefore in the world, in terms of our impact, … it just is super triggering,” Karp said. Now, now. Palantir received social security from In-Q-Tel during its incubation. Alan Wade was the CIO of the CIA and had previously founded Chiliad with Christine Maxwell (sister of that Maxwell). On the other hand, K…

Come on, Karp is such a nice guy:

“I love the idea of getting a drone and having light fentanyl-laced urine spraying on analysts that tried to screw us,” he said during a talk in New York to promote his new book in February."

https://www.ft.com/content/64a2345e-3961-4d5d-ae04-82d933fa5...

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#247
post #241

You don't just need to decide that Nvidia is overvalued by the market and will crash in price to make money on a short position. You need to time the crash. If you're off, it could still crash and you could spend more money sustaining the position than you'd make. Or you could end up getting margin called, not just by semi-impotent private investors as Michael Burry was, but by the platform you're trading on itself.…

There's no way he gets margin called, these surely are puts, not pure stock shorting. This isn't some random guy.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#248

His track record since “the big short” has been horrific. That’s the problem with being a perma-bear, eventually the market dips but you missed out on extraordinary gains vastly out weighing your negative thesis. It’s a hellva lot easier to be bullish American companies then try and time draw downs. Doesn’t make any sense.

I am interested in quantitative / probabilistic analysis on your thesis. Where should I go look?

nice prompt

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#249

His track record since “the big short” has been horrific. That’s the problem with being a perma-bear, eventually the market dips but you missed out on extraordinary gains vastly out weighing your negative thesis. It’s a hellva lot easier to be bullish American companies then try and time draw downs. Doesn’t make any sense.

I am interested in quantitative / probabilistic analysis on your thesis. Where should I go look?

troll

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#250
post #240
post #238

The positions: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000164933925...

Right. He also went long on Lulu Lemon. Where’s the undervaluation thesis on yoga pants?

Lululemon benefits humanity just as much as AI. For different reasons, of course.
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