The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership • Hacker News Board

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#241

Post by nodja » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 3:14 PM UTC

crazygringo wrote: post #129

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

Most people didn't think we were anywhere close to LLM's five years ago. The capabilities we have now were expected to be a decades away, depending on who you talked to. [EDIT: sorry, I should have said 10 years ago... recent years get too compressed in my head and stuff from 2020 still feels like it was 2 years ago!] So I think a lot of people now don't see what the path is to AGI, but also realize they hadn't seen…

GPT3 existed 5 years ago, and the trajectory was set with the transformers paper. Everything from the transformer paper to GPT3 was pretty much speculated in the paper, it just took people spending the effort and compute to make it reality. The only real surprise was how fast openai producterized an LLM into a chat interface with chatgpt, before then we had finetuned GPT3 models doing specific tasks (translation, summarization, etc.)

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#242

Post by alterom » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 3:15 PM UTC

whynotminot wrote: post #229

alterom wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Teslas and Waymo’s drive better than the majority of humans already. In restricted settings. Yeah no fam. >but is driving really the yardstick you want to use? Yes, because it's an easy one, compared, say, to walking . But if you insist — let's use that.

Walking is going pretty well for robotics lately. Good luck with that take

>Walking is going pretty well for robotics lately.

Just like self-driving is going well on an empty race track.

>Good luck with that take

Good luck running into a walking robot in the street in your lifetime.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#243

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 3:15 PM UTC

whynotminot wrote: post #163

quirkot wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "G" part of AGI implies it should be able to hit all the arbitrary yard sticks

That is stupid. It would be possible to be infinitely arbitrary to the point of “AGI” never being reachable by some yard sticks while still performing most viable labor.

Is driving is infinitely arbitrary?

It's one skill almost everyone on the planet can learn exceptionally easily - which Waymo is on pace to master, but a generalized LLM by itself is still very far from.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#244

Post by belter » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 3:15 PM UTC

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

AGI is whatever OpenAI will define as such ... :-)

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#245

Post by doodlebugging » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 3:15 PM UTC

I'm patiently waiting for all this AI/AGI bullshit to unwind. Some of my "investment" type newsletters have been alerting that the AI endgame is imminent and the bubble is ready to pop. I guess the big money people grifted all they can grift on this round and are ready to pull the rug from everyone who has just learned to spell AI.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#246

Post by JoelMcCracken » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 3:15 PM UTC

bobbyprograms wrote: post #235

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

We already reached AGI. Why is anyone saying otherwise? AGI is when the system can train itself which we have already proven.

Citation needed? I don't mean this in a snarky way, though. I genuinely have not seen anything that these things can train on their own output and produce better results than before this self-training.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#247

Post by butler533 » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 3:16 PM UTC

Why do none of OpenAI announcements have an author attributed to them? Are people that ashamed of working there, they don't even want to attach their name to the work? I guess I would be, too.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#248

Post by Vinnl » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 3:16 PM UTC

nl wrote: post #178

no_wizard wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

> they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle Who is this "they" you speak of? It's true the definition has changed, but not in the direction you seem to think. Before this boom cycle the standard for "AI" was the Turing test. There is no doubt we have comprehensively passed that now.

I don't think the Turing Test has been passed. The test was setup such that the interrogator knew that one of the two participants was a bot, and was trying to find out which. As far as I know, it's still relatively easy to find out you're talking to an LLM if you're actively looking for it.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#249

Post by alterom » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 3:17 PM UTC

whynotminot wrote: post #240

alterom wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It would be possible to be infinitely arbitrary to the point of “AGI” never being reachable by some yard sticks while still performing most viable labor. "Most viable labor" involves getting things from one place to another, and that's not even the hard part of it. In any case, any sane definition of general AI would entail things that people can generally do. Like driving. >That is stupid That's just, like, your op…

I had a friend who had his Tesla drive him from his driveway in another city 3+ hrs away to my driveway with no intervention. I feel like everyone’s opinion on how self-driving is going is still rooted in 2018 or something and no one has updated.

>I had a friend who had his Tesla drive him from his driveway in another city 3+ hrs away to my driveway with no intervention.

I had anecdata that was data, and it said that full-self-driving is wishful thinking.

We cool now?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#250

Post by atbvu » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 3:18 PM UTC

Every time they bring up AGI, it feels more like a business strategy to me. It helps them attract investors and dominate the public narrative. For OpenAI, AGI is both a vision and a moat.