Redefinitions aside, fully capable AI is right up there with commercially viable fusion power, cost effective quantum completing, and fully capable self-driving cars, as a technology that is quickly advancing yet always a decade or two away.
Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#242Earlier quoted context omitted.
Reminds me of a time-honored aphorism in running: A marathon consists of two halves: the first 20 miles, and then the last 10k (6.2mi) when you're more sore and tired than you've ever been in your life.
Why just run 20 miles then?
Because then it wouldn't be a challenge and nobody would care about the achievement.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#243Now that Nvidia is the most valuable company, all this talk of actual AGI will be washed away by the huge amount of dollars driving the hype train. Most of these companies value is built on the idea of AGI being achievable in the near future. AGI being too close or too far away affects the value of these companies- too close and it'll seem too likely that the current leaders will win. Too far away and the level of sp…
It’s possible for AI to provide tremendous economic value without AGI
AGI in the not too distant future is always priced in. Just providing tremendous economic value won’t make the stock prices keep going up.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#244Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t even know what AGI is, and neither does anyone else as far as I can tell. In the parts of the video I watched, he cites several things missing which all have to do with autonomy: continual automated updates of internal state, fully autonomous agentic behavior, etc. I feel like GPT 3 was AGI, personally. It crossed some threshold that was both real and magical, and future improvements are relying on that basic…
AGI is when a computer can accomplish every cognitive task a typical human can. Given tools to speak, hear, and manipulate a computer, an AGI could be dropped in as a remote employee and be successful.
A human is agi when can accomplish all tasks of ChatGPT… how come the reverse doesn’t work?
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#245Earlier quoted context omitted.
yeah that "model of the world" would mean: babies are already born with "the model of the world" but a lot of experiments on babies/young kids tell otherwise
> babies are already born with "the model of the world" > but a lot of experiments on babies/young kids tell otherwise I believe they are born with such a model? It's just that model is one where mummy still has fur for the baby to cling on to? And where aged something like 5 to 8 it's somehow useful for us to build small enclosures to hide in, leading to a display of pillow forts in the modern world?
damn I guess I had to be more specific:
"LLM-level world-detail knowledge"
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#246Earlier quoted context omitted.
The interview which I've watched recently with Rich Sutton left me with the impression that AGI is not just a matter of adding more 9s. The interviewer had an idea that he took for granted: that to understand language you have to have a model of the world. LLMs seem to udnerstand language therefore they've trained a model of the world. Sutton rejected the premise immediately. He might be right in being skeptical here…
There is some evidence from Anthropic that LLMs do model the world. This paper[0] tracing their "thought" is fascinating. Basically an LLM translating across languages will "light up" (to use a rough fMRI equivalent) for the same concepts (e.g. bigness) across languages. It does have clusters of parameters that correlate with concepts, not just randomly "after X word tends to have Y word." Otherwise you would expect…
Right, but modeling the structure of language is a question of modeling word order and binding affinities. It's the Chinese Room thought experiment - can you get away with a form of "understanding" which is fundamentally incomplete but still produces reasonable outputs?
Language in itself attempts to model the world and the processes by which it changes. Knowing which parts-of-speech about sunrises appear together and where is not the same as understanding a sunrise - but you could make a very good case, for example, that understanding the same thing in poetry gets an LLM much closer.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#247I always get a weird feeling when AI researchers and CS people start talking about comparisons between human brains and AI/computers Why is there a presumption that we (as people who have only studied CS) know enough about biology/neuroscience/evolution to make these comparisons/parallels/analogies? I enjoy the discussions but I always get the thought in the back of my head "...remember you're listening to 2 CS major…
>Why is there a presumption that we (as people who have only studied CS) know enough about biology/neuroscience/evolution to make these comparisons?
Hubris.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#248Earlier quoted context omitted.
The best part of this is I watched Sam Altman say he really thinks fusion is a short period of time away in response to a question about energy consumption a couple years ago. That was the moment I knew he's a quack.
Altman recently said, in response to a question about the prospect of half of entry-level white-collar jobs being replaced by "AI" and college graduates being put out of work by it: > “I mean in 2035, that, like, graduating college student, if they still go to college at all, could very well be, like, leaving on a mission to explore the solar system on a spaceship in some completely new, exciting, super well-paid, su…
So STNG in 10 years?
edit: Oh. Solar system. Nvm. Totally reasonable.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#249I think it's a shame that a 146 minute podcast released ~55 minutes ago has so much discussion. Everybody here is clearly just reacting to the title with their own biases. I know it's against the guidelines to discuss the state of a thread, but I really wish we could have thoughtful conversations about the content of links instead of title reactions.
Who listens to podcasts at 1x speed? That's unbearably slow!
The trouble is Karpathy already speaks at 1.5x speed.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#250I’m in the Penrose camp that Turing machines can’t be conscious which is required for true AGI.