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Terence Tao: The role of small organizations in society has shrunk significantly

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Re: Terence Tao: The role of small organizations in society has shrunk significantly

#241

I’m not sure if that’s true. As a counterpoint, things we rely on like Amazon are actually a lot of tiny businesses that have ideas and now we are able to get their more tailored products, whereas two decades ago, I just got to buy whatever walmart or bestbuy was willing to sell us. Also consider youtube, I watch a lot of tiny creators and two decades ago the only thing available was the major tv networks and cable t…

Two decades ago department stores were not making products. They were and still are leasing shelf space. The only difference between them and modern amazon is that their shelves are finite, so some level of quality control was done to ensure the shelves would be stocked with things people are actually interested in and wouldn’t fall apart and jam up the returns department too badly.

Re: Terence Tao: The role of small organizations in society has shrunk significantly

#242

I dunno. Tao is a very smart person but it seems like a bad idea for a mathematician to be making claims like these without sources. His vibes are no more meaningful than anybody else's vibes. I'm not familiar with all of these subfields, but I know that the scholarship on the history of communication networks is extremely deep . Why would there be so much work if things were actually explained so easily? If you are…

but now it's on HN and people are discussing this idea that's been thrown out and some people agree and some don't and some bring up how it's similar to Bertrand de Jouvenal and others start thinking of de Tocqueville or Robert Putnam (I'm sure you could draw a connection to James C. Scott too) and before you know it you've got the beginnings of a bibliography right here in these threads

Sure but why start this discussion from first principles when you can read a text that covers the same ground in 10 pages?

Re: Terence Tao: The role of small organizations in society has shrunk significantly

#243
> My tentative theory is that the systems, incentives, and technologies in modern world have managed to slightly empower the individual, and massively empower large organizations, but at the significant expense of small organizations [...]

The large organization are turning to rent seeking, which adversely affects the liberty of the average individual.

Claiming that it has "slightly empowered the individual" is a reflection of where you are in the current social structure. If you've fallen below the line, then you're certainly not empowered at all, and more like you're enslaved. And that line keeps on going up.

The corrosiveness of increasing housing costs and health care costs are examples of this. The fact that individual transportation is both necessary and is likely to turn into a subscription-model is likely to be another example.

Regulatory capture is also a part of this. Large organizations enjoy the complexity of government regulations (while at the same time screaming about it) because they have the resources to navigate it, and they enjoy near monopolies which allow them to pass the costs down to their customers. And we've entirely forgotten how to break up monopolies, like we did with AT&T.

Also, most organizations these days exist to capture profits for the people who lead them. And this can even be seen in left-leaning political organizations that are more concerned with fund-raising than solving the problems that they're supposedly addressing (the DNC being the most massive example of this).

All of this corrodes individual liberties of the average person. It just may not have caught up with you yet, or you may have lucked into the resources to avoid it.

This is why I'm a left-libertarian anti-capitalist. The problem that we have today is too much power in the hands of large organizations (the fact that organizations are led by individuals, however, is not a logical contradiction -- the problem to solve here isn't a simple rule to limit the ability of individuals to work together, but an optimization problem to increase or maximize individual liberty, which necessarily results in a push-pull tradeoff at the interaction between individuals and groups that they might participate in). All large organized groups (Religion, Government, Corporations, Unions) needs to be restrained in their ability to exploit individuals. What we have now is that Unions have been destroyed and Government and Religion largely do the bidding of Corporations and their billionaire owners.

(Billionaires being individuals is also not a logical contradiction -- they have so many resources they may as well just be massive organizations -- employing hundreds of people and owning all kinds of property)

Re: Terence Tao: The role of small organizations in society has shrunk significantly

#244
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, could you remind me what war was going on when NASA took us to the moon? Could you remind me what war was going on when the CDC eradicated malaria from the United States? Could you remind me what war was going on when FDR build our basic social safety nets? Broadly speaking, people have 3 ways to organize large groups: business, government, and (organized) religion. Each has strengths and weakness. To say that…

> Wait, could you remind me what war was going on when NASA took us to the moon? The cold war. Putting a man on the moon was meant to demonstrate how easily we could put a nuke on Moscow.

Self driving cars are also clearly a demonstration of military might.

Re: Terence Tao: The role of small organizations in society has shrunk significantly

#245
post #21

Great post, thought-provoking. Highly recommended. Interestingly, in the past, the US federal government actively made efforts to keep private organizations from becoming too dominant. Here are just a few examples, from memory: * The Bell system was broken up, resulting in a geographically distributed telecom network: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakup_of_the_Bell_System : Your phone company was local. * Banks cou…

Bell really really wanted this: It also proposed that it be freed from a 1956 antitrust consent decree, then administered by Judge Vincent P. Biunno in the United States District Court for the District of New Jersey, that barred it from participating in the general sale of computers

Re: Terence Tao: The role of small organizations in society has shrunk significantly

#246
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that a bad thing? Democracies, even if flawed, are accountable to their citizens at least to an extent. Their power structures aren't dictatorial, like in a company, and can be steered and course-corrected. Private companies are accountable to no one, their only motivator and reason for existence is profit. If they're allowed to run our society, the outcome that we're seemingly inching towards, there will be nothi…

> Democracies, even if flawed, are accountable to their citizens at least to an extent. Stock corporation, even if flawed, are accountable to their stock holders at least to an extent; thus your point > Private companies are accountable to no one clearly does not hold. Corporations, of course, can also be steered and course-corrected (shareholders meetings).

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Re: Terence Tao: The role of small organizations in society has shrunk significantly

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our humanity is at stake no matter how we evolve this tech, because the tech evolves our humanity. It's not a one-way street. Culture, not genetics, is the dominant human evolutionary force today: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article-abstract...

Exactly — hence the need to deliberately evolve it.

Have you never read any of the many Frankenstein myths? What makes you think we can "evolve" a superintelligence and then keep it bottled up?

Re: Terence Tao: The role of small organizations in society has shrunk significantly

#248
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

automating logistics lines does have military potential -- a waymo doesn't have to be holding bob and sara on the way to mcdonalds, it could also be long-hauling thousands of pounds of troop equipment and logistics needs. the lack of public funding towards automated cars isn't due to a lack of potential, it's due to a lack of focus and lower-hanging-fruit.

As I see it, the lineage of modern automated cars started with public funding from DARPA, with the first signs of success appearing in 2005: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge After the DARPA Urban Challenge of 2007 I naively thought that commercial self driving urban vehicles were about 5 years away. It actually took until 2020 for Waymo to offer services to the public, and just in one city to start…

> I don't know how to maintain government funding for that long in a democratic system

See how the DoD funds the development of the multitude of platforms on it depends on (land, air, sea or space), for decades at a time.

Re: Terence Tao: The role of small organizations in society has shrunk significantly

#249
post #231
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If there is one thing that we learned from the 20th century it is that societies that gave more private control over how resources were used did better than those that had more state control over how resources were used. In some metrics (such as GDP), yes. And in other metrics (such as wealth inequality and health care), the answer is less clear-cut.

The Soviet bloc did not have better healthcare than the West lol. Soviet life expectancy never crossed above 70 years.

The West encompasses a wide gradient of private vs. state control over resources, and there are states which aren't typically considered Soviet or Western (e.g. Nordic states.)

Re: Terence Tao: The role of small organizations in society has shrunk significantly

#250
post #125
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great response. Yes, in some cases concentration may be desirable. However, I'm not persuaded it was necessary in the specific cases you mention: * Waymo: EVs were repeatedly killed by corporations highly in concentrated industries that would suffer disruption by EVs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Killed_the_Electric_Car%3F * TSMC: Wouldn't we all be better off if the entire world weren't so dependent on a single…

"Wouldn't it have happened regardless, once everyone realized that increasing the scale of early models like GPT-2 and GPT-3 was key to improving performance?" Notice how it was massive private spending that uncovered the power of scale in the first place. Would've been hard to say, get a federal grant for that. Would've probably happened gradually, with some gains from moderate scale justifying slightly larger grant…

The cost of developing GPT-2 and GPT-3 was on the order of millions of dollars, well within the budget of most tech organizations. See https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165 for the total compute invested in them. OpenAI had raised only a few tens of millions in donations at the time, as a non-profit organization.

The increase in performance of computation has been happening for so many decades now that it's been given names like "Moore's Law." People like Hans Moravec predicted way back in the 1980's that the cost of compute would continue to decline and become cheap enough for AGI by the 2020's or 2030's. That's half a century ago!

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