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U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

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Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd love to see the evidence for or against this assertion. If BLS is grossly inaccurate, that'd be a good thing to know. If it's accurate, also good to know. Evidence?

We can start with this reading. Average monthly job growth dropped from 147,000 initially to just over 70,000 a reduction of approximately 52% from their data. This at precisely when the Fed needed to start cuts when the administration has been aggressively hammering them. Hopefully the Fed is not too late this time, and their 6+ month delay cutting won't result in a recession or serious economic impact.

You model about what the Fed does and how rates affect the economy is just wrong. The fed raising or lowering rates won't change what's happening with jobs. You have to explain why when the fed raised rates, the market shot up and unemployment dropped. But you can't with the model you have.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#242

Given that Trump recently fired his head of labor statistics, because he didn't like what was being reported, I'd take this with a grain of salt. Presumably whatever numbers are now being released are whatever "alternate facts" he wants to put out. There could be various reasons Trump wants to report bad numbers, such as pressuring the Fed to lower rates, or to establish a horrible baseline from which he can then rep…

> Given that Trump recently fired his head of labor statistics, because he didn't like what was being reported, I'd take this with a grain of salt. Presumably whatever numbers are now being released are whatever "alternate facts" he wants to put out.

That may someday be the case, but is is not yet. Trump fired the head, but the analysis and reports are still being produced by the professional career statisticians that have long worked there.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Superdelegates hamstrung the process. Kate Brown for instance, the governor of Oregon at the time (who btw was an unelected governer during that term, as her predecessor had stepped down) voted against the will of her constituents for Hilldog -- Oregon had overwhelmingly supported Bernie. Let's not forget some of the caucuses in other states which were outright rigged. An auditorium blew up for Bernie but the presidi…

There's a number of things going on here, but the short of it is that to become the democratic nominee you need to convince a whole bunch of people, including some super delegates. Hillary Clinton did a better job of this than Bernie Sanders. How she did it could probably be the subject of an entire book, but no one has ever come up with any particularly scandalous stories about it so far.

Yes, and the superdelegates, whose job was to make sure people didn't pick the wrong candidate (how democratic of them), picked probably the least popular politician in America at the time.

Trump likely would have lost against almost any other candidate, but he had help from the Democratic party, who treated Hil's nom as a coronation.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#246
post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

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Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#248
post #66
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes

Snark aside, I really wonder how we as a nation can get to better politics and policy when so many people are so misinformed about the basics. It seems hopeless at times.

Instilling critical thinking skills from a young age. The actual educational content is far less important. "Learning how to learn" should be the primary purpose of K-12.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#249
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The interest rates were wild in 1982. My dad said that no one would lend for a mortgage, and we ended up doing seller financing to buy my childhood home. Also, not enough people talk about housing prices in high interest rate environments. Mortgage payments are the thing that tether housing prices, and act as a lever. We see it today with just an extra 4% with low housing volume and people reluctant to sell, because…

I remember my parents being excited about the opportunity to refinance their mortgage to something in the high teens. And now these days headlines act like the apocalypse is occurring when mortgage rates are in the 6-7 range.

Rates are lower, but housing cost is much, MUCH higher as a percentage of total income.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#250
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We survived with 30% inflation ok key goods during the Biden years due to endless spending, we’ll survive this one too. You’re welcome to short the market though if you feel strongly otherwise

Luckily, fiscally responsible Trump is coming in to stop all this deficit spending... oh wait.

I was going to make a glib comment that Trump is plugging the "deficit spending" of billionaire's having to pay taxes.

But given Trump policies in toto, I am having trouble coming up with what a winner looks like here.

Big oil I suppose. But that's a damn narrow demographic if everything else is hurting. And overall economic malaise won't juice oil demand.

If anyone can characterize the class of economic winners ... ?

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