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Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines valued at $12B in early-stage funding

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Re: Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines valued at $12B in early-stage funding

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's quite a gap between “Apple considers buying Mistral” and “they are about to be bought by Apple”.

Yes, a gap of three to six months, or maybe a bit longer if regulators get involved. Anyway, if Mistral is for sale then if not Apple it'll be another big company.

No, the gap is right in your second sentence:

> if Mistral is for sale

At the moment there's no public information about that, it's all about Apple being interested into buying but we don't know if Mistral is interested into selling at all. That's the gap.

Re: Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines valued at $12B in early-stage funding

#242
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's nothing to do with Thinking Machines as a company, it's to do with a VC that's content to bet two billion dollars on a company that has shown absolutely nothing, and the sorry state of affairs that represents.

> It's nothing to do with Thinking Machines as a company, it's to do with a VC that's content to bet two billion dollars on a company that has shown absolutely nothing, and the sorry state of affairs that represents. Why does it represent a "sorry state of affairs"? VCs are risking money they manage, it's not like they're putting anyone else at risk. Do we really prefer a world in which we don't take risks to develop…

> VCs are risking money they manage, it's not like they're putting anyone else at risk.

They're putting everyone at risk.

As others in this thread have pointed out what these VCs do is make wildly risky gambles. When it pays off they make billions of dollars in profit and congratulate themselves for their foresight and the power of capitalism. When it doesn't they go cap-in-hand to the federal government, saying that if they're allowed to collapse it'll destabilize the entire economy.

If it were just some rich billionaires who might have to sell their second private jet when this collapses I'd agree with you: who cares what they do with their own money. But what's going to happen is that the taxpayer will end up footing the bill for their reckless behavior, and millions of people will end up worse off for it as governments cut back on welfare, healthcare, and aid programs to balance the books. In a very real sense, people are going to be paying for VC greed with their lives.

Re: Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines valued at $12B in early-stage funding

#243
post #195
post #171

On Shark Tank if you walk in and say “I have no revenue, no viable business model, and an idea that’s easily copied in a space that’s rapidly marching towards commoditization. I’m asking for $5 billion for 25% of my company.” You’d be laughed off the set. In the increasingly frothy world of GenAI that’s a Wednesday and you get the cheque. If it looks like a bubble and smells like a bubble… The tech is cool, but inves…

chatgpt and claude are two of the fastest revenue growing products of all time

Correct, but they're not profitable, rely on quickly depreciating capital assets and loads of tech employees to maintain their services, so it's hard for me to believe that there's a sustainable business here for them.

And like, if anyone's gonna win it should be Google because of their ability to push capital into this for a long time, their world class infrastructure and their cost advantage by having their chips in house. But I have faith in their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Re: Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines valued at $12B in early-stage funding

#244
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's nothing to do with Thinking Machines as a company, it's to do with a VC that's content to bet two billion dollars on a company that has shown absolutely nothing, and the sorry state of affairs that represents. Why does it represent a "sorry state of affairs"? VCs are risking money they manage, it's not like they're putting anyone else at risk. Do we really prefer a world in which we don't take risks to develop…

> VCs are risking money they manage, it's not like they're putting anyone else at risk. They're putting everyone at risk. As others in this thread have pointed out what these VCs do is make wildly risky gambles. When it pays off they make billions of dollars in profit and congratulate themselves for their foresight and the power of capitalism. When it doesn't they go cap-in-hand to the federal government, saying that…

> When it pays off they make billions of dollars in profit and congratulate themselves for their foresight and the power of capitalism. When it doesn't they go cap-in-hand to the federal government, saying that if they're allowed to collapse it'll destabilize the entire economy.

But that's not actually true.

The Silicon Valley Bank situation aside - because it was a unique situation, we can open it if you want - when have VCs asked to be bailed out on failed investments? This kind of moral hazard is absolutely a thing in banks and finance in general, but afaik, not in the VC industry.

Re: Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines valued at $12B in early-stage funding

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please quantity those contributions in "technical management". Otherwise it sounds like a boilerplate excuse non technical people will use.

Not sure you can quantify all work, but to the accounts I read she was constantly guiding, scheduling the teams, resolving conflict, allocating resources. Exactly what a CTO does in a company that size. Can’t help but feel there’s some sexism attached to the pushback here.

And what a conflict resolver she was. It even elevated her to the level of CEO.

https://makeagif.com/gif/im-actually-not-sure-about-that-mir...

Re: Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines valued at $12B in early-stage funding

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please quantity those contributions in "technical management". Otherwise it sounds like a boilerplate excuse non technical people will use.

Not sure you can quantify all work, but to the accounts I read she was constantly guiding, scheduling the teams, resolving conflict, allocating resources. Exactly what a CTO does in a company that size. Can’t help but feel there’s some sexism attached to the pushback here.

FWIW I would be skeptical of tech bros claiming they sped up 80% response time on microservice handling 5000000000 RPS. But I will be even more skeptical when they say "analyzed and implemented business requirements into maintainable and high performance code".

More generic, grandiose and oft-repeated someone's claims are, more skepticism is warranted.

Re: Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines valued at $12B in early-stage funding

#247
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell me one unique skill, from any of those individuals you quoted, that is worth even 0,01% of $5 billion, for a non existent company with a non existent product.

Please investigate the team she has assembled and it will be clear $5B isn't outside the realms of reality.

Looking at the team it's clear its a bunch of brilliant but indisciplined cats. They will be difficult to herd but for what the real plan is here, acquisition, it clearly does not matter.

They will do a couple of tools, then another panicked company like Apple, or Facebook or AWS, needing to justify the millions spent on AI and with nothing to show for, will acquire them for billions. When somebody will point out they don't make money or have no product, somebody here will point to the "team" as you just did :-)

But since we are talking about 12 billion, let's play the VC and do the due diligence first on the leader?

Reporting from The Optimist by Keach Hagey and other open sources, plus the famous thread here when Sam Altman got fired from OpenAI, reveals that Mira Murati had a central role in Sam Altman November 2023 firing.

For VCs, this is a masterclass in corporate survival and a massive red flag. Evidence shows Murati was the primary architect of the case against Altman:

- Collected "screenshots from Murati's Slack channel" documenting alleged toxic behavior

- Wrote private memos questioning Altman's leadership

- Initiated board contact through Ilya Sutskever

- Sent "hefty PDF files of evidence" to board members via self-destructing emails

Then ...When employees revolted, fearing lost equity, immediately switched sides, signed the letter demanding Altman's return, then later claimed she "fought the actions aggressively."

She survived by reading the room perfectly:

- Became interim CEO during the crisis

- Positioned herself as essential to Altman's return

- Exited in September 2024 just before the for-profit restructuring

- Immediately raised $2B for her new startup showing it had it planned all along.

Investment Implications:

This reveals someone who will systematically undermine leadership while maintaining plausible deniability, then switch sides when politically convenient. Remember Paul Graham's famous quote about Sam Altman? That he "could be parachuted into an island full of cannibals and come back in 5 years and be king"? Murati might be even more astute.

She went from Intern → Tesla PM → Leap Motion → OpenAI VP → CTO → interim CEO → $2B startup founder, all with zero AI research background.

Her OpenAI trajectory shows world class political instincts. Join during post-Musk power vacuum (2018), build alliances with both sides, orchestrate a coup when convenient, flip sides when it fails, exit perfectly timed before restructuring.

For VCs:

Whether you see this as exceptional political skill or dangerous executive behavior depends on your risk tolerance.

Let's just hope the 10 millions dollars the government of Albania, the poorest nation in Europe, invested on this have been secured with proper share rights. That could make for some awkward reactions back home.

Re: Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines valued at $12B in early-stage funding

#248
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please investigate the team she has assembled and it will be clear $5B isn't outside the realms of reality.

Looking at the team it's clear its a bunch of brilliant but indisciplined cats. They will be difficult to herd but for what the real plan is here, acquisition, it clearly does not matter. They will do a couple of tools, then another panicked company like Apple, or Facebook or AWS, needing to justify the millions spent on AI and with nothing to show for, will acquire them for billions. When somebody will point out the…

I wasn't referring to Murati (although she seems capable).

Re: Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines valued at $12B in early-stage funding

#249
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at the team it's clear its a bunch of brilliant but indisciplined cats. They will be difficult to herd but for what the real plan is here, acquisition, it clearly does not matter. They will do a couple of tools, then another panicked company like Apple, or Facebook or AWS, needing to justify the millions spent on AI and with nothing to show for, will acquire them for billions. When somebody will point out the…

I wasn't referring to Murati (although she seems capable).

Their head of AI alignment clearly has no idea on how to go on alignment, as you can see here, during this 30 min rambling into nothing, on the subject.

At correct time stamp: https://youtu.be/Wo95ob_s_NI?t=1040

What is in contrast to the published vision of Thinking Machines Lab.

Re: Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines valued at $12B in early-stage funding

#250
post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wasn't referring to Murati (although she seems capable).

Their head of AI alignment clearly has no idea on how to go on alignment, as you can see here, during this 30 min rambling into nothing, on the subject. At correct time stamp: https://youtu.be/Wo95ob_s_NI?t=1040 What is in contrast to the published vision of Thinking Machines Lab.

John is not exactly used to interviews.

I was more concretely referring to the level of talent in the engineering team, for example Lilian Weng and Horace He.

Horace can probably produce $50M of revenue personally per year.

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