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America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

molsonhart.com

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Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#241
> Let’s focus on America’s strengths in high end manufacturing, agriculture, and innovation instead of applying tariffs to all countries and products blindly. We should be taxing automated drones for agriculture at 300% to encourage their manufacture here, instead of applying the same blanket tariff of 54% to that that we apply to t-shirts.

Everything wrong and right with the author's thesis. Our present day high-end manufacturing, agriculture, and innovation are already facing the steepest tariffs from a broad range of countries. The uneven playing field extends to IP theft, heavily subsidised and protected industries abroad and other forms of unfair competition like port traffic manipulation or burdensome legislation.

The author think that "targeted tariffs" would have a different effect from what we see now with trade war and retaliatory threats, market instability and uncertainty. This is false, but also ultimately harmful to our "agricultural drone industry". It's hard to have a niche industry without the larger picture, and it's hard to have "drones" without knowing how to manufacture constituent parts and having a reliable domestic supply chain for such. A domestically sourced supply chain encourages innovation and adaptation to immediate customer demands and goods can arrive in days or hours instead of weeks or months. Innovative requests to parts makers aren't immediately harvested by Chinese industrial spies and knowledge and technological advantage can remain local for longer, allowing for time to progress again before others can catch up.

Encouraging lazy and unoriginal drone manufacture in moated "made in USA" assembly lines is precisely the low-end type of job that "no one wants to do" and will inevitably produce the least capable drones the least efficiently or profitably. Our manufacturing and industrial capacity needs to be the world's best and most cost competitive because nothing else will do.

Only automation can save American industry. There will be "fewer" jobs but they will require skill and training. Robot management and supervision and repair and update and retooling will all require a large labor force. Creating robots and the software they run on will continue to be an important and large sector of the software industry. But manufacturing is only about jobs in the way that having a healthy agriculture industry is "about jobs", hardly at all.

Manufacturing real goods is the difference between servility and freedom given that modern war in the nuclear age also entails producing billions of tonnes of metal and blowing it up in distant countries, and could require replacing percentages of the global shipping tonnage that would be destroyed in a major conflict. It requires manufacturing thousands of substation transformers and the aa systems to defend them.

If we had invested strategically into a variety of heavy and light industries over the past 30 years, we almost certainly would have invented better processes and formulae for making things than we currently possess. We could have more globally competitive steel, even more advanced finished products and the knowledge and experience to "make anything better and more profitably than anyone". Industrial production and manufacturing make up roughly 15% of US GDP today. "Bringing back manufacturing" might increase that number significantly but it's hard to see how or why it would need to be more than 30% outside of wartime. That wouldn't even require a doubling of the jobs involved because much of this would have to be automated.

I agree with the author's emphasis on education and "fixing" things being critical in the execution of any kind of industrial renaissance. If the tariff fight lowers tariffs globally, that is a small move in the right direction of leveling the playing field and rewarding domestic producers who are globally competitive.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#242
post #202

> It’s years of accumulated skill, but it’s also a culture that is oriented around hard work and education that the United States no longer has. Sounds more like China has an exploited educated class/lack of oppurtunity than America has bad education. Plenty of American workers can multiply in their heads and diligently perform there work. These people work in white collar jobs though, not in factories snapping toget…

Westerners have had too good of a life and you cannot compete with an asian who is told every day if he doesn't perform he will be homeless. You just cannot compete.

> Westerners have had too good of a life

You're not going to sell the electorate on ".. and so we're going to make your life worse to compete with China", though.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Other than that it seems to be mostly good points, especially the overall one: you cannot do this overnight. It's annoying Americans were given only two choices - offshoring is great and let's keep doing it, and, as you say, the opposite, meth-fueled let's bring back manufacturing overnight. The kind of slow and steady protection and promotion of home-grown industry that China and most of Asia so successfully used…

> The kind of slow and steady protection and promotion of home-grown industry that China and most of Asia so successfully used to grow their economies was completely absent as even a talking point The slow and steady way that post-WW2 Korea and Japan did needs a unanimously agreed 10-20 year long game plan between industry and government, which is incompatible with democracies who change colors and strategies every 4…

There's various forms of democracy and many are not as chaotic as the US kind in regards to long term plans.

A good example is the general global approach to Net Zero. It's slow, methodical, science based, negotiated.

But if anyone brings up planning for 2050 it's usually in the context of "It's all bullshit, politicians are crap, they're just lying to you and kicking the can down the road till they retire" (and if you scratch the surface you'll have even chance that the person saying that has been radicalised into not even believing there's a problem to be solved).

But only the US is in and out of the Paris agreement etc.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#244

Its the integration and overall combined effect of the entire industrial pipeline that makes China so incredible. It processes all the raw materials and the recycling/reuse of off cuts through every possible way to turn those raw materials into components and then into goods with very little need for import from other countries. Its the complete system for a huge variety of goods. To compete with that the entire pipe…

Even getting workers to the factory is a concerted effort of trains and public transport, Americans would quickly clog the highways with millions of single occupant large vehicles without first investing in more efficient ways to move people

Scenario: someone builds a factory complex employing thousands of workers. Government builds and improves infrastructure and roads leading to and from that factory to get the workers in and out, as well as getting raw materials in and finished goods out. Someone properly points to the roads and says "you didn't build that", pundits freak out.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#245

Its the integration and overall combined effect of the entire industrial pipeline that makes China so incredible. It processes all the raw materials and the recycling/reuse of off cuts through every possible way to turn those raw materials into components and then into goods with very little need for import from other countries. Its the complete system for a huge variety of goods. To compete with that the entire pipe…

And if China invades Taiwan, which they have said for decades they will do (we just don’t like to believe them), what then? Do we sacrifice a democracy for the dollar? If not, is our economy annihilated? We have no credible alternative to reshoring for this reason alone.

> Do we sacrifice a democracy for the dollar?

I've got some bad news for you.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#246

I don't think anyone underestimates that, as much as some people with the author's viewpoints would like it to be true. To paraphrase Kennedy: "We choose to [bring back manufacturing]. We choose to [bring back manufacturing] in this [or the next] decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skill…

Putting aside the rah-rah patriotism, you perhaps don't understand the problem any better than Trump does. The moon mission to which you allude was difficult but, critically, that difficulty was not felt by most Americans: it was a challenge for NASA engineers. Trump's current economic plan will increase inflation, cripple America's role in world trade, and result in negligible increase in manufacturing in the short term. Wildly unpopular policies do not last in a democracy.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#247
"America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back"

"America" doesn't underestimate or overestimate things. People do. So which American people underestimate the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back? Name names, or it didn't happen.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#248
post #117

The other day I saw the results of a poll [1] where 80% of Americans thought the *country* would be better off if more Americans worked in factories. However, only 20% of Americans thought that *they* would be better off if more Americans worked in factories. It was surprisingly bipartisan. In other words, people like the idea of this, but no one actually wants this. [1] https://www.ft.com/content/845917ed-41a5-449f-…

We already have a massive prison industrial complex, a lack of basic rights and a complete disregard for due process.

Very soon we'll be forced to make shoes and other things behind bars. No trial needed, just indefinite detention.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a problem for the markets to suss out.

They've sussed out that if you suck up to him he'll give you an exemption. Of course if you are a medium sized business you are screwed and have to wait in line, but you'll get your chance as long as you can hold on through the summer. In two years of course it won't matter.

> They've sussed out that if you suck up to him he'll give you an exemption

It's a very thinly veiled protection racket. People do tend to repeat the plays that they know.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#250

I don't think anyone underestimates that, as much as some people with the author's viewpoints would like it to be true. To paraphrase Kennedy: "We choose to [bring back manufacturing]. We choose to [bring back manufacturing] in this [or the next] decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skill…

> To paraphrase Kennedy

What in the modern situation suggests the comparable level of diligence in approach to the goal? The fact that both goals are far-reaching does not suggest comparability of approaches to the solution.

Changing the way society/economy operates is nowhere near "building X," whatever X is, whether it's something hard like a bomb or a collider.

> We will do it, and we will win, whatever that means.

How do you know that you haven't won already? Shouldn't the end goal be clear? In the case of Kennedy you're referring to, criteria and motivation were clear.

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To a non-US bystander, your comment sounds like a no-thinking patriotic slogan. The details of the article are such that you can take any argument and bring it into discussion in order to show its irrelevance. But we're discussing slogans irrelevant to the situation and belief in the win, even though the win is not defined.

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