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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

epoch.ai

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Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#241

Post by asdf6969 »

tkjef wrote: post #219
daveguy wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the GP, but I'd rather reform our government to not be exclusively for money grubbing companies and billionaires who put profits over people.

i absolutely hear you on that. it just seems too hard to do that. my solution is to make companies that are cool, fun to work at, push good values and make some money. then use that money to push for appropriate political moves like you are saying. how would you propose to reform the government? through voting? good effing luck. it will take $$$. additionally, i get really annoyed with all the complaining that is don…

Sometimes there just isn’t a solution or it’s not the right time. That’s what bitching is good for. Imagine being the world’s most dedicated republican in 1750s France. You could analyze the state of the world and everything required to fix it but no matter what you do there’s still decades of feudalism left and feudalism fucking sucks. That’s where we are today and these bandaid solutions like making “better” companies are like asking the King to be nicer. It changes nothing fundamentally..

Maybe your lord is a great guy and he does everything right but tomorrow his son comes into power and he could whip you. That’s what a good company is like. My new manager is an asshole who ruined my great job.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#242

Post by codpiece »

bennettnate5 wrote: post #160
teucris wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have four books that I got from my dad - one for construction and repairs, one for electrical, one for plumbing, and one for landscaping. They’re in simple English with excellent illustrations. Using those books, I’ve been able to fix/improve pretty much everything in my house for ten years.

Could you list the titles/author of these books? I'd actually really like to get more into DIY home improvement, and having a starting reference like this would be really valuable

I know of a couple: - How to fix damned near everything [1] - Reader's Digest Fix it yourself [2] - Audel's Carpenters and Builders guide [3]

That Audel's, my wife got me for Christmas a few years back at Lee Valley Tools, I think. Was about 1/3 of what the listed price is here.

[1] https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?ds=20&kn=how%...

[2] https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?ds=20&kn=read...

[3] https://www.abebooks.com/book-search/title/audels-carpenters...

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#243

Post by hasmanean »

somenameforme wrote: post #131
rqtwteye wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

There's a simple litmus test for these sort of nearish future dystopias - how long before you have an 'AI plumber' or an 'AI electrician'? I'm not just listing random skilled trades, but listing jobs that are extremely complex, 100% context sensitive in a way that just doesn't generalize well, requires a mixture of high dexterity and high strength, and a million other things. To say nothing of the numerous [oft extre…

We have YouTube plumbers. Has destroyed the industry? No. But it’s made plumbing accessible to a whole range of DIYers.

Maybe AI will be just as productive.

Seriously YouTube has been amazing for the world of self learning. AI could learn a lot from it.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#244

Post by falcor84 »

rchaud wrote: post #216
tokai wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>10yrs ago [...] ordering a hotdog on doordash would be cutting edge and barely doable? Online food ordering is a lot older than 15 years.

Doordash is not the same as traditional online ordering. DD and all delivery apps are 3rd party middlemen that set their own menu prices and operate separately from the restaurant. Through this kind of obfuscation, they incentivize the growth of things like ghost kitchens, which are basically faceless factories. Nobody would order from them if they drove by one. but on the apps, they are displayed as standalone resta…

While I know there have been some issues with working conditions at ghost kitchens, I've also heard tons of horrible stories from regular kitchens, so it's not clearly to me that there's a significant difference on that front.

As for referring to them as "faceless factories", I can't even start to imagine what sentiment that should evoke in me. I don't have an issue buying food products made at actual factories, and have visited quite a few. As such I don't have any issue ordering from a ghost kitchen located in an industrial area that may look like a factory on the outside.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#245

Post by derkster »

ttoinou wrote: post #229
somenameforme wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a simple litmus test for these sort of nearish future dystopias - how long before you have an 'AI plumber' or an 'AI electrician'? I'm not just listing random skilled trades, but listing jobs that are extremely complex, 100% context sensitive in a way that just doesn't generalize well, requires a mixture of high dexterity and high strength, and a million other things. To say nothing of the numerous [oft extre…

Its more likely that we’ll hire plumbers who are going to throw a robot at the job and double check the work

Absolutely. It will be a while before AI is the absolute replacement, AI will enable the people in these professions to do faster, better (hopefully) work.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#246

Post by falcor84 »

gnulinux wrote: post #98
bashfulpup wrote: post #69

Very typical SV argument that R&D is "complex" and everything else is "simple". Would it blow your mind if I told you 10yrs ago that we'd have AI that can do math/code better than 99% of humans but ordering a hotdog on doordash would be cutting edge and barely doable? I don't disagree that "common" tasks are more valuable. I only argue that the argument these are easily automatable is a viewpoint based on ignorance.…

> if I told you 10yrs ago that we'd have AI that can do math/code better than 99% of humans This not even remotely close to true. Like not even a little bit. I use Cursor and Gemini for work daily and I'd be hard pressed to think AI is a "better" programmer than any professional software engineer. Sure it makes writing code faster and more efficient, because you just click tab and three lines are written for you. It…

> We still don't have a single theorem proved and published by a LLM without human aid.

I'm pretty sure that by "do math" the parent was referring to applying math, as one would do in the course of other tasks, and not mathematical research, just as by "code" they likely referred to writing code to solve a problem and not to algorithmic research.

And from my experience teaching & tutoring both math and programming at various levels, I would absolutely agree with the claim that AIs like Claude 3.7 Sonnet surpass over 99% of humans at typical short tasks.

It'll probably take some more time until context, memory and tool-use are improved sufficiently to allow AIs to tackle longer-term tasks effectively, but I'm sure it'll get there. And just as an example of progress, there was recently a post about the first "fully AI-generated paper to pass peer review without human edits or interventions" [0].

[0] https://www.rdworldonline.com/sakana-ai-claims-first-fully-a...

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#247

Post by falcor84 »

coldtea wrote: post #181

Most AI automation would automate useless bureucratic (public and private) bullshit jobs, not real productivity.

If you're able to define a clear metric to objectively differentiate between "bullshit jobs" and "real productivity", you'll probably nab a Nobel in Economics.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#248

Post by JustExAWS »

asdf6969 wrote: post #240
scarface_74 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is “affording a house” the marker of a success? I would say just the opposite. Owning a home decreases mobility and the ability to move to where the jobs are. That being said, the home ownership rate in the US is 65% and almost anyone who wants to go to college can via loans and scholarships. Only around 40% of people in the US have a college education. But that doesn’t mean that the other 60% are homeless and st…

> mobility and the ability to move to where the jobs are. This is a sign of low class status and lack of success. Rich people change the world to fit their needs. Poor people change themselves to fit the world. Leaving your entire family and social network behind for work is extremely middle class behaviour

Yes, that’s why Musk still lives in South Africa..

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#249

Post by teucris »

mistrial9 wrote: post #175
teucris wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have four books that I got from my dad - one for construction and repairs, one for electrical, one for plumbing, and one for landscaping. They’re in simple English with excellent illustrations. Using those books, I’ve been able to fix/improve pretty much everything in my house for ten years.

you also got standardized parts and plug-in systems that use them; standardized tools that were available for a reasonable cost; and you have basic health and mobility

You’re absolutely correct. The point was that I don’t need AI.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#250

Post by kridsdale1 »

tkjef wrote: post #163
somenameforme wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a simple litmus test for these sort of nearish future dystopias - how long before you have an 'AI plumber' or an 'AI electrician'? I'm not just listing random skilled trades, but listing jobs that are extremely complex, 100% context sensitive in a way that just doesn't generalize well, requires a mixture of high dexterity and high strength, and a million other things. To say nothing of the numerous [oft extre…

agree with all your points with the anecdata that the Roomba is awesome for dog hair. awesome.

My Roomba painted the whole room With dog excrement. The roomba thus went straight in the trash.
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