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Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

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Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#241
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not at all. Transport is great for families. Get your groceries delivered. Cargo bikes exist as well.

Delivered groceries are more expensive, not everyone can afford the prices plus the expected tip. A beater auto is affordable for most families. People with dough won’t mind the extra expense, that’s usually a given.

not in the UK. its an extra couple of quid for the delivery.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#242
post #166

I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange. I…

It is very strange to see a grayed out comment on top of a thread that has about 160 non-grayed out comments. I thought that highest rated comments go to the top and grayed out comments are rated below zero. Regarding your points. First the thing about used evs not selling has more to do with the rapid pace of innovation of evs rather than lack of demand. In the 90s it was very difficult to sell a used PC because PCs…

> Your second point is silly. Basically you are saying that EVs are doomed because EVs are already selling too much. Thats like the old joke that nobody goes to this restaurant anymore because it is too crowded.

I found it thought provoking rather than silly. Anecdotally, I've noticed EVs have gone from a type of car frequently seen on road trips to more of a city vehicle. This confines their location and purchasers.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#243
post #166

I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange. I…

It is very strange to see a grayed out comment on top of a thread that has about 160 non-grayed out comments. I thought that highest rated comments go to the top and grayed out comments are rated below zero. Regarding your points. First the thing about used evs not selling has more to do with the rapid pace of innovation of evs rather than lack of demand. In the 90s it was very difficult to sell a used PC because PCs…

Agree except maybe...

> The fact that one can make electricity out of oil.

If you do that, there's little benefit from car electrification. Also electricity is cheap usually when the car is not charging and vice versa. People arrive home, start cooking, washing clothes and plug in their car. The sun is already set and the local grid's unprepared cable sections cause voltage drops. The energy dilivered by the pv panels at noon is worth less than 10 percent of the nominal price. That is what holding EV usage back right now.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As horrible as the 41’000 that die year from cars in the US? Even after billions and billions are spent on their infrastructure? How safe would cities with micro mobility be if we spent the same on them?

> As horrible as the 41’000 that die year from cars in the US? and almost zero percent of that happens in cities.

Where did you get that idea?

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#245
post #217

In my city you cannot charge your car inside the underground garage. No one will build the required facility to ease electric car fire extinguishing. Therefore the buildings will default to deny.

Huh? I've installed my own charger in our apartment complex underground garage. Many people do that, permitting takes a while and could certainly be made easier, but it's not impossible, and recent laws make it impossible to refuse the installation of a charger. (EU, PL)

I'm PL based. The law made it impossible to refuse, but the fire law renders chargers unusable unless there is a facility. https://moto.infor.pl/prawo-na-drodze/ciekawostki/6604742,el...

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#246
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cities shouldn't have to mandate carparks, let alone charging in them. Having no car at all should be viable and we should build toward that. Pre-empting, obviously many places still require cars, but we shouldn't codify cars into the building code. It makes everything that bit more expensive, and it's a waste of valuable city real estate. At the moment the cost per square meter in Melbourne and my city means a singl…

"Having no car at all should be viable and we should build toward that." Yeah its sounds great until you need mass transport system to support this idea which means only mega cities can benefit the most when tier 2 and tier 3 cities is having a hard time investment see: japan

This is a chicken-egg problem. Those cities became tier 1 cities over time because of their proactive public transit strategies.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#247
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the long run, society goes to 100% electric transportation due to global warming. Any analysis that treats this as a simple matter of consumer choice is going to miss the biggest driver of adoption. Maybe some alternate carbon-neutral fuel for combustion is possible, but all the ones we’ve tried so far have lost out to electric.

Not just global warming but eventually oil depletion. Fracking has given the oil industry a stay of execution but it will work until it doesn’t and the cheapest stuff is exhausted, just like conventional drilling. We know how to build good EVs now, which means the result of this will be a lot less catastrophic than twenty or thirty years ago. We are lucky the peak oilers back then underestimated.

Yes, I don't think many people realize this but we have like ~46 years of oil left in total. That's not very much. It will just keep getting more expensive. Even if we keep burning coal for electricity, we still have 140 years of that left, so it's just a matter of relatively short time until the optimum flips in favor of electric.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#248

The "electric" share here includes plug-in hybrids which, if we're nitpicking, have an internal combustion engine. Doesn't affect the overall conclusion as even if they were all hybrids the number of cars with internal combustion would still be lower. I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's…

> I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's swamped by other data inluences.

One thing people don't realize is that EVs are going to be SO MASSIVELY CHEAPER than ICE cars that we will see massive changes in behaviour and socioeconomic dynamics in society. I think we will see a day where a new car won't be much more expensive than a new fridge.

What happens when everyone who can afford a fridge can afford a car? And drive it for next to nothing? With car repair basically being a non issue (just throw away and get a new one)?

Some societies are not equipped for that. Roads will need to be repaired much more often (due to EV weight as well). Tire microplastic particles are going to be much bigger problem (but less gas emissions at least). Gas taxes used to pay for road infrastructure in some countries, that doesn't work anymore. Electricity taxes? But then you are taxing people who don't use the roads as much. IoT meters on cars beeping your location to the government (UK actually proposed this)? Battery fire management? Recycling (especially for the batteries)?

Car manufacturing won't be a big industry that matters that much for the overall economy anymore.

Lots of countries where a lot of the population use motorized-scooters/motorcycles will move to use bigger cars. Traffic is going to get much worse everywhere, public transport will become less attractive. Parking demand will skyrocket.

People who already own cars will resist any form of government control to reduce traffic/parking. US car-centric lifestyle will be exported to all of the developing world. If anything the US and Canada are only of the few countries prepared for this new world (the only places where everyone, even poor people, own cars and drive everywhere).

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#249
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably not.

We bought a used EV, and I ran the numbers vs. a 20mpg car. The EV will pay for itself in saved gasoline after about 53K miles. That’s not breakeven time; that’s “the car is free” time. Breakeven was less than half that long because the old ICE car would have had non-zero depreciation. Apples-to-apples break even would have been 10-20K miles (ignoring free charging at work), but it ended up being closer to 300 miles.…

I don't even much care. I couldn't see myself driving back to ICE purely on account of the driving experience. They feel like janky fragile technology from the past with too many moving parts.

My car got totalled in September and I had to replace it. Since I didn't drive much at the time I entertained just getting a super cheap old ICE to replace it. Then I started remembering all the annoying maintenance.

Still, back to DC fast charging... I use it rarely. But it's not cheap. And it's a shit non-standardized, fragmented experience.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Hyundai Ioniq 6 has a range of over 500 km, and typical 20-80% charging times are around 20 minutes. Where in Europe can you drive 350 km and not pass a single charger?

Where did I say there are no chargers? Charging on long trips increases the time of the journey by a lot. And many EU drivers don't have money for a new Ioniq 6.

So my last really long drive was Prague to Amsterdam, last year. We did three stops, first to fuel the car and grab some breakfast, then for a bathroom break and to grab some lunch, and the last one was to get a McFlurry and another bathroom break. The total time spent on the stops was easily over an hour.

If I punch the same trip into one of the EV trip planners online and set the car even to something meh like an MG4 with the 51kWh battery, which is cheap EV that doesn't charge very fast, it's telling me I'd have to stop 4 times (instead of 3 times) and for 1.5 h total (instead of a bit less than that).

I don't know what you do for a living or how much you hate traveling, but for me this is a non-issue. I make maybe 1-2 trips like this a year (and <10 trips around 500 km) and spending like 15 % more time on the road is something I wouldn't even notice, much less care about.

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