Live data from Hacker News

Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

thebullshitmachines.com

241–250 of 652 posts

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#241
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Being persuasive (i.e., churn out convincing prose) is how LLMs were designed to be. No. They were designed to churn out accurate prose that accurately reflects their model of reality. They're just imperfect. You're being cynical and emotional to use the term bullshit. And again, it anthropomorphizes the LLM, it implies agency.

Where in the loss function of LLM training is the relationship between their model of reality and their predicted tokens? Any internal model an LLM has is an emergent property of their underlying training. (And, given the way instruct/chat models are finetuned, I would say convincing/persuasive is very much the direction they are biased)

> Where in the loss function of LLM training is the relationship between their model of reality and their predicted tokens?

In the part where their loss function is to predict text that humans would consider a sensible completion, in a fully general sense of that goal.

"Makes sense to a human" is strongly correlated to reality as observed and understood by humans.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#242
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know a lot of people who went through the "Oh, wow - wait a minute..." cycle. Including me. They're approximately useful in some contexts. But those contexts are limited. And if there are facts or code involved, both require manual confirmation. They're ideal for bullshit jobs - low-stakes corporate makework, such as mediocre ad copy and generic reports that no one is ever going to read.

> And if there are facts or code involved, both require manual confirmation. The hidden assumption here seems to be that the model needs to be perfect before it has utility.

Also hidden assumption, or perhaps lack of clear perception of reality, that most jobs on the market are strongly dependent on factual correctness.

Also assumption that this is any different than human relationship with empirical truth is.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#243
post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the only one that's available, though. When a kid at school is being taught, say, Newton's laws of motion, or what happened in 476 CE, they're not experiencing the empirical truth about either. They're only learning the consensus truth, i.e. the correct answer to give to the teacher, so they get good grade instead of bad grade, and so their parents praise them instead of punishing them, etc. This covers pretty…

I've heard about at least 4 theories of truth: Correspondence, Coherence, Consensus and Pragmatic (as described, for example, here https://commoncog.com/four-theories-of-truth/ ). If we look at Newtonian mechanics, then various independently verifiable experiments are examples of Correspondence truth, and the minimal mathematical framework that describes them is an example of Coherence truth.

Fine, but it's not how any of us learned of it either - whether the Newtonian mechanics or the "4 theories of truth".

I mean, coherence is sure a an important aspect of truth, and just by paying attention whether it all "adds up" you can easily filter 90% of the bullshit you hear people (or LLMs for that matter) saying - but even there, I'm not a physicist, I don't do much experiments in a lab, so when I evaluate if some information is coherent with Newton's laws of motion, I'm actually evaluating some description of a situation against a description of Newton's laws. It's all done in "consensus space" and, if an answer is expected, the answer is also a "consensus space" one.

We're all so used to evaluating inputs and outputs through the lens of "is this something I expect others believe, and others expect me to believe", that we're almost always just mentally folding the indirection through "consensus reality" and feel like we're just checking "is this true". It works out okay, and it can't really be any other way - but we need to remember this is what we're doing.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#244
post #66

I wish the title wasn't so aggressively anti-tech though. The problem is that I would like to push this course at work, but doing so would be suicidal in career terms because I would be seen as negative and disruptive. So the good message here is likely to miss the mark where it may be most needed.

[dead]

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Statistical truths based on observation of reality is the basis for science. Statistical truth based on the text on the internet is the basis for something else, and I would personally not like to call whatever that is science, or any truths established this way "ground truths".

What year did the Normans invade England? What's Newton's second law? Who was the last czar of Russia? How many moons does Jupiter have? I bet you "know" a lot of those facts not because you have observed them empirically, but because you read about them in books. And in fact, almost all scientists rely on reading for nearly everything they know about science, including nearly everything they know about their own spe…

There's obviously nothing wrong with learning by reading, but the way you tell whether what you read is true is by seeing whether or not it fits in with observation of reality. That's the reason we're no longer reading the books about phlogiston.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#246
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is getting awfully tedious. Are you trolling or do you genuinely think responding to a question about actual compute cost trends with a venture fund's puff piece about sticker price trends is helpful?

You are correct to note 'real' costs of the leading labs are not public. It is surely true that the labs are operating at below cost (we are definitely not paying for the full R&D), but it seems unlikely that this fully explains the reduction in inference costs over the last years. We also know from open models like deepseek that the cost per inference token at a fixed performance level is going down very quickly mat…

I apologize for my tone. It's just very frustrating to ask a question about applying this technology in the real world, to actual commercial products, only to get reply after reply of hopes and dreams. 20 years ago Ray Kurzweil promised me I'd have artificial hemoglobin that allows me to hold my breath underwater for an hour. Where is it? These are the arguments of grifters and conmen: "just wait look at the exponential growth!" No. I refuse. If this technique doesn't work right now then it simply doesn't work and we're all (except researchers and companies developing the core technology) wasting immense amounts of time and money thinking about it.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not too worried about Big Corporation trying to push a rope. In the end it really is only going to succeed if "we" want it — find value in it.

> only going to succeed if "we" want it — find value in it. I'll be pleasantly surprised if that's how it turns out. At least so far market dynamics haven't really been much of a driver for LLMs. Those with the money think its the next big thing and are pouring cash both into the LLMs themselves and any product that slaps a "powered by AI" sticker on the box. That's not to say people aren't also actively choosing to…

I see it too — but I'll remind both of us that these are still very, very early days.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ground truth is possibly used in the sense that humans’ brains tie what they create to the properties of observed reality. Whatever new information comes in is compared to, or checked by, that. What do you compare your knowledge of history to, other than what you expect other people will say ? Most knowledge we learn in life is tied only to our expectations of other people's reactions. Which works out fine, most of…

To start with, we know what a person is, rudimentary things about how they behave, our senses, how they commonly work, and can do mental comparisons (reality checks). We know LLM’s don’t start with that because we initialize them with zero’d or random weights. Then, their training data can be far more made up, even works of fiction, that the reality most humans observe with is almost always real. We could raise a hum…

> To start with, we know what a person is, rudimentary things about how they behave, our senses, how they commonly work, and can do mental comparisons (reality checks).

How much is this a matter of fidelity? LLMs started with text, now text + vision + sound; it's still not the full package relative to what humans sport, but it captures a good chunk of information.

Now, I'm not claiming equivalence in the training process here, but let's remember that we all spend the first year or two of our lives just figuring out the intuitive basics of "what a person is, rudimentary things about how they behave, our senses, how they commonly work", and from there, we spend the next couple years learning more explicit and complex aspects of the same. We don't start with any of it hardcoded (and what little we have, it's been bestowed to us by millennia of a much slower gradient-descent process - evolution).

> LLM’s have one architecture that does one job which we try to get to do other things, like reasoning or ground truth.

FWIW, LLMs have one architecture in a similar sense brain has one architecture - brains specialize as they grow. We know that parts of a brain are happy to pick up the slack for differently specialized parts that became damaged or unavailable.

LLMs aren't uniform blobs, either. Now, their architecture is still limited - for one, unlike our brains, they don't learn on-line - they get pre-trained and remain fixed for inference. How much a model capable of on-line learning will differ structurally from current LLMs, or even the naive approach to bestow learning ability on LLMs (i.e. do a little evaluation and training after every conversation)? We don't know yet.

I'm definitely not arguing LLMs of today are structurally or functionally equivalent to humans. But I am arguing that learning from sum total of the Internet isn't meaningfully different from how humans learn, at least for anything that we'd consider part of living in a technological society. I.e. LLMs don't get to experience throwing rocks first-hand like we do, but neither of us get to experience special relativity.

> Even they aren’t all trained in a coherent way using real-world, observations in the senses.

Neither them nor us. I think if there's one insight people should've gotten from the past couple years is that "mostly coherent" data is fine (particularly if any given subset is internally coherent, even if there's little coherence between different subsets) - both humans and LLMs can find larger coherence if you give them enough such data.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What trust in the web was there still? For me it went a decade ago or so when ads and SEO sites in Google search became ubiquitous.

You could never believe everything you read online, but with enough time and effort, you could chase any claim back to its original source. For example, you could read something on Statista.com, you could see the credits of that dataset, and visit the source to verify. Or you randomly encounter some quote and then visit your favourite Snopes-like website to verify that the person actually said that. That's what's und…

If you can't trace something back to its source, it's suspect. It was that way then too. I suppose you're just concerned there's a firehose of disinformation now.

So perhaps we have to just slough off the internet completely, the way we always have for things like weekly rags about "Bat Boy" or whatever.

I hate to see the internet go, but we'll always have Paris.

Re: Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines? How to thrive in a ChatGPT world

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What year did the Normans invade England? What's Newton's second law? Who was the last czar of Russia? How many moons does Jupiter have? I bet you "know" a lot of those facts not because you have observed them empirically, but because you read about them in books. And in fact, almost all scientists rely on reading for nearly everything they know about science, including nearly everything they know about their own spe…

There's obviously nothing wrong with learning by reading, but the way you tell whether what you read is true is by seeing whether or not it fits in with observation of reality. That's the reason we're no longer reading the books about phlogiston.

> the way you tell whether what you read is true is by seeing whether or not it fits in with observation of reality

The only way any of us ever gets to see "whether or not it fits in with observation of reality" is to see if they get an A or F on the test asking it.

Seriously.

The "moons of Jupiter" question is the only one of the above one gets to connect to an observation independent of humans, and then if they did, they'd be wrong, because you can't just count all the moons of Jupiter from your backyard with a DIY telescope. We know the correct answer only because some other people both built building-sized telescopes and had a bunch of car-sized telescopes thrown at Jupiter - and unless you had a chance to operate either, then for you the "correct answer" is what you read somewhere and that you expect other people to consider correct - this is the only criterion you have available.

Post reply on HN