Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Can solar costs keep shrinking?

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

241–250 of 632 posts

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#241

Post by sitkack »

eigenspace wrote: post #229
sitkack wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't, this is a snapshot of the costs now, you know what they were 5 years ago you can extrapolate a curve. The costs are still falling and will continue to fall. I should be able to supply a data point of the cost of panels today without getting admonished as being off-topic, rtfm.

Yes it does miss the point. Panels are no longer the expensive part of solar. The expensive part is now things like labour, installation, and land acquisition, and bringing those costs down is going to be hard.

My links showed that panels are demonstrably not the primary cost.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#242

Post by DavidPeiffer »

bee_rider wrote: post #196
pfdietz wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The attack on net metering isn't unfortunate; what's unfortunate is that people thought net metering ever made any sense. It's free riding on services provided by the grid, forcing others (who don't have PV) to pay for cost of providing those services. As PV rolled out, the craziness of net metering became impossible to ignore. Of course, those feeding at this trough objected loudly, and some naively fell for those o…

It would be nice if this cost was actually all broken out; the grid operator should charge for connectivity, the various energy providers should charge for the energy itself. Net metering could still make sense; your residential solar installation might make enough to cover the gap.

I'm sure it varies by locality, but if I look at my electric bill, I see charges for energy, transmission, and maintaining a connection to the grid. Transmission and generation are variable, connection is fixed.

I doubt the $8.50/month is the "right" charge for maintaining a grid connection, but it's what MidAmerican Energy has gotten approved in Iowa. Presumably their charges for transmission and energy cover everything adequately.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#244

Post by bawolff »

kingkongjaffa wrote: post #209
caymanjim wrote: post #204

I spend four months of the year traveling in an RV. Two years ago, I budgeted over $6000 for my desired solar setup (at least 1200Ah of battery, at least 2400W of solar, plus various controllers and other components). It was expensive enough for me to hold off, and more importantly, I didn't have the space on my current RV for the solar panels. In just the two years since then, prices on batteries and panels have dro…

> I intend to buy undeveloped land far from civilization I'm always intrigued by this notion, I know plenty of Americans have this kind of plan, but it's never quite as remote as they think, because, y'know you're still in America somewhere. Unless you're thinking of somewhere in northern Canada. I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US.

I think most people understand "far from civilization" to just mean rural. You can easily find that in america (or canada). Nobody is talking about moving to a failed state.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#245

Post by BobaFloutist »

beembeem wrote: post #199
BobaFloutist wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How often/much do you realistically need to heat a house with high, quality, modern insulation? Does your house have triple-paned windows, a vestibule for each entryway, well insulated walls, attic, and roof, etc? Also if we're talking about heating, there's also the possibility of geothermal heat pumps, which seem to work everywhere, and while they have a high one-time capital cost but I'm pretty sure can more or le…

> a house with high, quality, modern insulation? How much is society willing to spend collectively to upgrade our housing stock for this? Not to mention triple-paned windows are not standard by any sufficiently large builder on new construction. Double-paned? Certainly. Geothermal is great. But in an already built city, it's not feasible to install quickly. There is also a lack of legal framework or precedent in plac…

It's not a reasonable request to a typical homeowner, but if we're looking at a path to a society-wide greener tomorrow, it's worth looking at.

I wonder how much upgraded insulation and geothermal heat pump(/district heating) could be paid for by the cost to build a new nuclear power plant - or even by the difference in cost to build that power plant versus to get sufficient solar and batteries to, in combination with the insulation, generate comparable temperature control.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#246

Post by JonChesterfield »

caymanjim wrote: post #204

I spend four months of the year traveling in an RV. Two years ago, I budgeted over $6000 for my desired solar setup (at least 1200Ah of battery, at least 2400W of solar, plus various controllers and other components). It was expensive enough for me to hold off, and more importantly, I didn't have the space on my current RV for the solar panels. In just the two years since then, prices on batteries and panels have dro…

Burning wood is a completely viable (if very annoying and environmentally dubious) answer to off grid hot water. Your plan sounds pretty good to me.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#247

Post by tfourb »

opo wrote: post #202
tfourb wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone with plenty of solar on my roof, it is anything but idiotic. With government incentives it pays for itself in ten years and has a realistic life span of 25. It might comparatively more efficient/cheaper per watt to build solar on the ground or on large commercial structures, but that doesn't change the economics for individual home owners, which in many parts of the world are already positive.

>... With government incentives… Money is fungible and not unlimited. A dollar given to you by your neighbors in their taxes to subsidize you would have gone much, much further if the money would have been spent to build solar by your power utility.

That might be the case but the fact is that these incentives exist and eligible home owners that don’t use them are in effect throwing money away.

Also, it can be politically and technically expedient to provide incentives, even if it is not the theoretically most efficient use of that money. For example if it increases acceptance for renewables in the broader population or jump starts an industry (as it has in Germany).

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#248

Post by pyrale »

derriz wrote: post #211
sharpshadow wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You got it right there Germany can’t satisfy demand with renewables and decided to cut itself of from coal and nuclear, brilliant right!? Cherry on top some powerful player blew up Nordstream forcing Germany to buy exorbitantly expensive LNG. Your argument to stop using LNG doesn’t work if you have many parts of industry build with gas infrastructure which can’t be replaced just like that.

Germany has been the biggest exporter of electricity in the world for 8 of the last 10 years[0]. It consistently generates more than it consumes. It's been this way since around 2004. German wholesale electricity prices are relatively low by European standards - so far this year about 8th cheapest - about 13% cheaper than of France, for example[1]. This reflects the blended cost of production. Household prices are hi…

The link you're using is from 2022, which is an outlier in terms of energy production.

The issue is that Germany exports "waste" electricity. It almost always exports cheap power, and imports at high rates. In negative price events, you will almost always see Germany in the exporter list.

For instance, today, France imported from Germany between 10:30 and 15:45, when market prices reached bottom, and exported to Germany when prices soared, including between 18h and 21h [1].

Another issue is that Germany's inability to control its power production is big enough that it can't be compensated by cross-border trades. That's what can be seen today between 18h and 21h [2], where the price spread between France and Germany became very large.

This kind of pattern has been happening all week.

[1]: https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/cross-border-electrici... [2]: https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/market-data

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#249

Post by caymanjim »

tails4e wrote: post #188
sitkack wrote: post #115

Yes The pallet price of solar panels in the US is below 30 cents a watt. https://a1solarstore.com/wholesale-solar-panels.html And from alibaba, it is below 15 cents a watt. https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Longi-solar-Hi-MO-X6-... With full systems below $1/watt. https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Moregosolar-hybrid-so...

The price to get solar installed in the US is insanely high compared to the cost of the materials. I've seen my extended family get quotes north of 40k for modest installs. I got a modest system with batter for around 9k in the EU, and id say I'd install the same for under 5k at today's prices.

Your $40k price is the high end and only in some markets, and has a whole lot more to do with regional labor costs than anything else. The same system would probably be $15k installed in another market. And that's before the enormous subsidies that are on offer in many states.

Or if you're at all handy and willing to educate yourself, you can DIY it for a fraction of the cost. That's obviously not for everyone, but you don't need any professional skills. You could hire an electrician if you want to be grid-tied.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#250

Post by grecy »

kingkongjaffa wrote: post #209
caymanjim wrote: post #204

I spend four months of the year traveling in an RV. Two years ago, I budgeted over $6000 for my desired solar setup (at least 1200Ah of battery, at least 2400W of solar, plus various controllers and other components). It was expensive enough for me to hold off, and more importantly, I didn't have the space on my current RV for the solar panels. In just the two years since then, prices on batteries and panels have dro…

> I intend to buy undeveloped land far from civilization I'm always intrigued by this notion, I know plenty of Americans have this kind of plan, but it's never quite as remote as they think, because, y'know you're still in America somewhere. Unless you're thinking of somewhere in northern Canada. I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US.

Exactly right. It's mathematically impossible to get more than 116 miles from a McDonalds in the lower 48 - and that's if you take a helicopter!

https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/mcfarthest-spot-skb

Post reply on HN