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Batteries: How cheap can they get?

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Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#241

Post by dangus »

ck2 wrote: post #35

Except we are not going to have cheap batteries and solar in the USA and never ever cheap EVs Remember how tariffs were called "asinine" when the last administration did them? Next year tariffs will double the price of batteries and solar imports, except there's no domestic production to even compete at that high price. Oh semiconductors are going to double in price too in 2025, buy soon. https://www.theverge.com/202…

Just a little math issue here, tariffs jumping from 25 percent to 100% isn’t doubling the price, and the tariff cost used for the percentage isn’t the final retail cost.

Let’s say I have a widget. I sell it for $10, and it cost me $1 for me to produce. There’s a 25 percent tariff, which is 25 cents. Now I sell the item for $10.25 to pay for the tariff.

If the tariff goes up to 100%, that now means that I need to raise the price of the product to $11 to pay for it.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#242

Post by dangus »

torginus wrote: post #59

Ladies and gents this is what standard-issue Silicon Valley style grift looks like (following in the footsteps of the great Kurzweil). Ignore basic physics, massage data so you can more credibly fit an exponential curve on it, and extrapolate a fantastic future for it. All this to underpin the grand illusion of capitalism that exponential YoY growth is sustainable to justify insane VC valuations. Which is even more p…

When you’re responding to an article with a large amount of data and sources provided, the burden is on you to show which data is incorrect or which assumptions are too rosy and how you quantitatively arrived at those conclusions.

I’d be with you if the author was just hand waving their way to this conclusion but they seem to have done their research and used real numbers.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#243

Post by h0l0cube »

lazide wrote: post #235
defrost wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're still making the same irresponsible and frankly silly generalisation about "average" people. Most people, full stop, don't build houses, metal work shops, treat their own sewerage, build their own power systems, etc. So "average" people just don't start fires or set off bombs because they're not doing anything that dangerous. Of the people that do , say, build their own glass furnaces, annealing ovens, laying…

Near as I can tell, you literally never even read my comment. So seriously, WTF? You’re doing on this weird rant, when I literally just said average people shouldn’t be assembling their own multi-kWh lithium battery packs unless they want to burn their houses down. Which is, indeed, good advice. And pertinent to the discussion. Where this bizarre tangent you keep going off on is not.

> average people shouldn’t be assembling their own multi-kWh lithium battery packs unless they want to burn their houses down

Average goofs shouldn't be assembling their own solar system and battery setups. Even an average person will apprise themselves of the know-how to proceed safely, and are legally obliged to do so. If average person is not interested in doing that, they'll call on a professional, and in some places, that is the only legal option. But perhaps there are contradictory stats out there to show that there's a real widespread phenomenon of well-meaning Average Joes and Janes that are burning down houses with DIY batteries.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#244

Post by throwawayffffas »

SergeAx wrote: post #223

> stormy electricity grid For me (living in Europe), stable 220V 50Gz from any wall socket is one of the traits of civilization, like potable water tap and flush toilets. "Stormy grid" is something from a rural village lifestyle, with a water well and a cold basement to keep winter food supply. Is it really that huge problem in parts of US?

There were a couple of large scale very long outages in Texas due to very bad weather in the last few years that made the news even on this side of the Atlantic.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#245

Post by gambiting »

roygbiv2 wrote: post #224
unwind wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why, though? Is there some kind of requirement that only fully trained carpenters can build fences?

Just about everything in Australia needs a license to do. Even down to network cabling.

The rule is - if it's going inside the wall, only a licenced electrician can do it. Yes it also extends to things like speaker or HDMI cables. It's mad.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#246

Post by iSnow »

XorNot wrote: post #169
tux3 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does seem to be written by someone who's very far above the ground — even managing to throw the blockchain in there at the end. But the point they're making is reasonable. Just because the author isn't deeply technical doesn't mean they can't fit an exponential and extrapolate correctly. Exponential growth always has to stop somewhere, but that's not in and of itself a reason to think this year is the year that it…

> they can't fit an exponential and extrapolate correctly. Anyone fitting an exponential isn't extrapolating correctly pretty much by definition. As you note: > Exponential growth always has to stop somewhere, but that's not in and of itself a reason to think this year is the year that it will. This is a god of the gaps argument. There's no reason it should stop this year, there's also no reason it shouldn't. Fitting…

>Fitting the curve is only useful if you're actually presenting an argument as to why for the relevant interval it should continue.

Which he actually does by looking at sodium batteries.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#247

Post by defrost »

lazide wrote: post #235
defrost wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're still making the same irresponsible and frankly silly generalisation about "average" people. Most people, full stop, don't build houses, metal work shops, treat their own sewerage, build their own power systems, etc. So "average" people just don't start fires or set off bombs because they're not doing anything that dangerous. Of the people that do , say, build their own glass furnaces, annealing ovens, laying…

Near as I can tell, you literally never even read my comment. So seriously, WTF? You’re doing on this weird rant, when I literally just said average people shouldn’t be assembling their own multi-kWh lithium battery packs unless they want to burn their houses down. Which is, indeed, good advice. And pertinent to the discussion. Where this bizarre tangent you keep going off on is not.

Near as I can tell, you literally never even read my comment.

Consider that I explicitly stated:

* They build their own ... planes

* They build their own ... off grid power system(s)

* They ... water proof EV's to drive across harbour floors

and you responded that "No, you’re talking about building structures. I’m talking about assembling a bomb."

Let me remind you that aircraft are bombs, off grid power systems are bombs, water proof EV's with battery packs large enough to drive 7 km's underwater have the same issues you're talking about.

You apparently didn't pause to read the content of my comment before launching into a "Yes, but ..."

I've already linked to locally built ground effect plane (with builders plastic for wings), here's a locally built EV: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-30/nt-world-record-darwi...

Average people are quite capable of doing extraordinary things and not burning down their houses - you just have a low opinion of "average".

Idiots that can't read manuals and installation guides should avoid house grade battery packs, sure.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#249

Post by ftrobro »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #225
kolinko wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In central/northern Europe in january solar goves 10% of the output of summer, and you need 3-4x power to heat compared to cooling down in summer.

Where in central Europe is it 10%? And you get extra in summer, the actual overprovisioning is when you compare to the equinoxes.

In southernmost Sweden, just above Germany, solar production is only 5% in December compared to June. In northernmost Sweden the sun doesn't even rise above the horizon for most of December.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#250

Post by suoduandao3 »

jonathanlydall wrote: post #30
jvanderbot wrote: post #17

I would love a 5-20kwh battery backup in my home, I even have a place for it. But when I called my local solar/battery installer they said that it was illegal to install grid-charged battery backups in home. I live in Minnesota. They even told me the power from a hypothetical solar rig is sold to the grid utility, not stored, and they give a discount on future winter rates as payment. This seems like a lousy deal.

Aside from it benefiting energy companies, is there any justification for such a law? In South Africa we’ve had load shedding on and off since 2008. It’s becoming pretty standard for middle class homes to have inverters with batteries and optionally solar. It does create an issue though that when a load shedding window ends, a whole lot of batteries start charging all at once (especially during non-daylight hours). A…

I'm sure benefitting energy companies is the real reason... but if everyone had a battery backup and they all started charging at the same time, I suppose it could make it harder to reboot the system after an outage.
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