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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#241

Post by qsdf38100 »

drcode wrote: post #167
qsdf38100 wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still paying attention? With a "chauffeur" you don’t have to, that’s the point. Isn’t that a obvious?? Also you’re not personally responsible if your chauffeur has an accident. The Elon miracle, he scams you, but you still defend him and pretend like you’re happy with the scam. "In less than a year you’ll be able to get from New York to San Francisco during your sleep". That was in 2016. 8 years later, he says "robot…

nobody is forcing you to spend your money on things you don't like if you don't pay attention when you're driving with a taxi/Uber/chauffeur, that doesn't seem very smart

Again, not paying attention to your chauffeur and the road situation is the point of having a chauffeur.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#242

Post by svara »

pas wrote: post #217
TheAlchemist wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give it some time ! When the dust settles, it will certainly be taught in business schools. And Musk will be in prison (not for FSD specifically). I watched the shareholders meeting yesterday - it was amazing. Elon repeated all the same things, he kept telling for the past 5 years at least, none of which is close to become a reality. And none was described in any tangible detail - all very vague promises. As for FSD,…

as GME, that trump social thing, et al. already showed it a couple of times fundamentals don't matter. Tesla is held by folks who either don't care (ETFs, institutions, hedge funds, blablabla) or Elondong lovers.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing, but, given enough capital, a lot of wild sounding things can become real. Hype is a great tool to attract capital.

Clearly Musk understands this very well and plays that game expertly.

It's really not necessary for all his promises to come true, as long as he can point to a track record of having made some of those wild things come true. So far, that's working.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#243

Post by bdangubic »

lagadu wrote: post #181
hankman86 wrote: post #64

They should teach Tesla’s “autopilot” (and its FSD upgrade) in business schools. Turns out you can sustainably push up company valuation on vapourware. You have to wonder if Tesla’s autonomous driving technology was actually ever meant to turn into a product. Or whether it is mostly a tool to justify the lofty Tesla stock price. I very much doubt that it is technologically ahead of its competitors.

While I agree that Tesla is nowhere close to having an actually autonomous driving system, I think that Tesla did invest more into research and probably collected more data than anyone else on the market. This amount of research has to have some results, even if they don't have a product yet.

safest bet you can make - no one old enough to have HN account today will live to see anything even closely resembling FSD

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#244

Post by csours »

Disclosure: I work for a Tesla competitor, not on self-driving. This is solely my own opinion.

More and more, I feel that we need at least a couple more paradigm changes - specifically:

    - More understandable models - being able to get good answers to "why did you do that"
    - Better retraining - Don't do that thing! (without training a whole model)
    - Better internal learning - don't wait for the next download
Non ML changes: Public understanding and acceptance of self-driving, favorable insurance and legal framework.

Public understanding includes improvements to two way communication between humans and self driving vehicles.

Legal framework includes limited liability for manufacturers. NOTE: I don't love this idea or even like it, but without it we will only get driver enhancement features, not SDC. (If you're angry at this suggestion, know that I am too)

---

My basic approach to all of this is that you need to have a solution to any problems that automation will encounter. The World is a problem generating machine. Most solutions to automation problems involve constraining the problem space. But as that guy said "Life, uh, finds a way"

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#245

Post by schmuelio »

drcode wrote: post #186
throwup238 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think your "automatic driving" argument is wishful thinking See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_hypnosis and https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automaticity It’s a well known phenomenon.

I don't dispute that people get used to driving, but I think arguing that "driving" requires the same amount of effort as "not driving" is a more specious claim

> I think arguing that "driving" requires the same amount of effort as "not driving" is a more specious claim

It's really not, the human brain is _really_ good at abstracting.

In pretty much exactly the same way you don't have to pay attention to balancing to walk, your brain learns to do the same thing for cycling and driving. It abstracts the mechanics of the car (e.g. turning the wheel to turn left/right) and sort of extends its view of your "body" to the car.

This isn't an instantaneous process of course, it takes time to build up that abstraction, but it absolutely exists. If your brain wasn't good at doing those types of abstractions then walking/running/typing/speaking/breathing/etc. would take a phenomenal amount of attention and practice.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#247

Post by mrkeen »

TheDong wrote: post #99

The thing I've been most amazed at about FSD is that there hasn't been any sort of lawsuit around FSD refunds. There are people who paid thousands to tens-of-thousands of dollars for a promise that their car would eventually have "full self driving". A not-insignificant portion of those people have lost any chance at actually getting FSD, whether by their car being totaled in an accident, or having sold it, or such,…

> There have also been multiple public promises that FSD would be delivered in a matter of years

This is a fun read, even if it only goes up to 2021:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/fsd-timeline-promise...

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#248

Post by rayiner »

pas wrote: post #217
TheAlchemist wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give it some time ! When the dust settles, it will certainly be taught in business schools. And Musk will be in prison (not for FSD specifically). I watched the shareholders meeting yesterday - it was amazing. Elon repeated all the same things, he kept telling for the past 5 years at least, none of which is close to become a reality. And none was described in any tangible detail - all very vague promises. As for FSD,…

as GME, that trump social thing, et al. already showed it a couple of times fundamentals don't matter. Tesla is held by folks who either don't care (ETFs, institutions, hedge funds, blablabla) or Elondong lovers.

You can’t half a half trillion market cap with a fanboy stock.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#249

Post by cma »

vasco wrote: post #127
hbarka wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ford’s Blue Cruise is hands-off in mapped highways. Waymo is driverless. Musk is really getting away with all the hype for what Tesla cruise control delivers.

One interesting bit is that recently Nvidia's CEO said Tesla is ahead of the other companies in the space. My opinion is also that Tesla isn't but then we have a connundrum. Is Nvidia's CEO just saying this because Waymo doesn't buy GPUs from them? > “Tesla is far ahead in self-driving cars,” Huang said in an exclusive interview with Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-ceo-says-tesla-far-ahe...

Nvidia's CEO said that a day after Elon raised a capital multi billion dollar capital round all spent on a 100,000 gpu Nvidia cluster for another of his companies, so it could easily just be flattery.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#250

Post by kalleboo »

nelsonic wrote: post #13

The author of this article doesn't understand how continuous improvement in software works ... Saying that it will "never" work is myopic. Never bet against Moores Law or Elon! As a Tesla M3 owner (in Europe where we don't have FSD yet) I cannot wait to have it for long road trips on highways where I want to relax and have a "copilot" do some of the "thinking" & driving for me. Yes, there are still some instances of…

I remember using Text OCR and Voice recognition in the 90's. It was like 90% there, it seemed like we were just a few years away from it working perfectly.

Almost 30 years later, OCR and voice recognition, now backed by machine learning, is far more impressive than it was back then, but it still keeps making mistakes that I have to fix. And those are far, far easier problems than driving.

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