241–250 of 318 posts
All the big blocks: EU, US, South Korea, Taiwan, and China assume that their subsidy policies will expand their market share. Obviously they cannot all be right. The only that I think is given that will expand its global market share is China. Paradoxically because of the US sanctions and the fact that it relies so much on imports presently.
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Obviously they cannot all be right. As a percentage of the market, that's true, but if the subsidies grow the whole market then every block's dollar value of market share can all go up. Every startup learns this lesson quite early on. It's a heck of a lot easier to grow a market by 5% than it is to take 5% of the market from a competitor, mostly because competitors do things to try to stop you.
Sure, but the semiconductor market is mature bordering on stagnant. There's a high-risk/high-reward competition for the leading edge that is currently dominated by TSMC, but there's just not much money to be made from the older nodes that the automotive, aviation and military segments care about. Building out capacity to secure your supply chains is potentially a very sensible strategic decision, but I'll eat my hat…
Is this true? And by what measure? I see nothing but incredible growth driven by cloud, mobile, and AI/ML.
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I would just emphasize something obvious about different cultures. Culturally, China is really long term while the West culture is anxious (not bad, just different) and looking for short term results. China does not have problems embracing challenging and strategic endeavours knowing that the result will come out eventually.
and don't forget defeating western world is a common dream of all Chinese people. they are fighting for this prospect until it comes true. this is helpful for encouraging people.
The EU is simply too scared to actually put it's foot down. If they really want to, they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have at least one of their fabs here in the EU. But they won't. In stead they will just handover €30 billion of public money to multinational corporations with market caps larger than the yearly GDP of some EU countries. Edit: For clarity, I'm not suggesting bannin…
ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. China will already have started their attempts. It isn't crazy to expect them to achieve success single handedly. If all of Asia starts mucking in the EU will get crushed. The EU does not have a track…
Why hasn't Japan done it yet? As I understand, ASML is the only maker of EUV etching machines at this point.
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ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. China will already have started their attempts. It isn't crazy to expect them to achieve success single handedly. If all of Asia starts mucking in the EU will get crushed. The EU does not have a track…
I dunno, the issue with government picking the winners is there’s plenty of people who like money out there and sound very convincing. Even selecting the best people you still might not build what ASML have. I’m not even sure they can produce the mirrors needed for EUV let alone the laser light source and all the tens of thousands of other technologies that are in these machines. It’s extremely hard and China is in a…
The Mainland Chinese economy grew more than 5% last year. It is no where near a recession.
This is an existential goal, so what if it doesn't appear realistic. Satisfying natural gas demand without The Pipe was also unrealistic.
The EU is simply too scared to actually put it's foot down. If they really want to, they can just limit the export of ASML machines only to companies that have at least one of their fabs here in the EU. But they won't. In stead they will just handover €30 billion of public money to multinational corporations with market caps larger than the yearly GDP of some EU countries. Edit: For clarity, I'm not suggesting bannin…
ASML isn't guarding profound insights revealed by the gods requiring some sort of eternal liver pecking sacrifice to obtain. If the EU plays hardball to too great an extent, other countries will replicate the research. China will already have started their attempts. It isn't crazy to expect them to achieve success single handedly. If all of Asia starts mucking in the EU will get crushed. The EU does not have a track…
How did that go for China and Russia during the last... 20 years of them throwing all their money and brain power at it?
No, ASML is guarding profound insights. I run a community for silicon valley veterans from areas like silicon design, manufacturing, hardware design, top-tier testing equipment, military and research lab prototyping, etc. The stuff ASML is doing is night on impossible, and even the brightest minds I know in that community find it hard to begin to imagine the minute details that really make ASML's tech stack a possibility as opposed to a flight of fancy.
There's a very good reason why the powers that be decided to move heaven and earth to get TSMC out of Taiwan and onto safer ground. This knowledge is at the very edge of what we know about physics and manufacturing. There's no replicating it, there's only losing it and starting again from scratch with no genius insight at all.
I hope ASML has something like an internal journal, like oldschool HP or Bell Systems, and one day they'll release it, because it will revolutionize what we know about a lot of practical engineering, even if by then it's 30 years behind the curve of what they're doing at that point.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would just emphasize something obvious about different cultures. Culturally, China is really long term while the West culture is anxious (not bad, just different) and looking for short term results. China does not have problems embracing challenging and strategic endeavours knowing that the result will come out eventually.
People say stuff like that all the time, then the most free market economy does well in the long term. Culture is important, but mainly as far as it permits people to freely help themselves prosper. The West is made up of countries that often have 40%+ of their economy made up by government spending, ie, spending that wouldn't happen under a free market. That is far more a problem as far as raw economic outcomes than…
How about Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Chile?
What what is the "correct" percent to spend? And, what non-microstate countries do you consider "free market"?
By the time you include: military, education, health, and infrastructure, it is very hard to be less than 25% for any highly developed nation.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I dunno, the issue with government picking the winners is there’s plenty of people who like money out there and sound very convincing. Even selecting the best people you still might not build what ASML have. I’m not even sure they can produce the mirrors needed for EUV let alone the laser light source and all the tens of thousands of other technologies that are in these machines. It’s extremely hard and China is in a…
> China is in a recession The Mainland Chinese economy grew more than 5% last year. It is no where near a recession.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, but the semiconductor market is mature bordering on stagnant. There's a high-risk/high-reward competition for the leading edge that is currently dominated by TSMC, but there's just not much money to be made from the older nodes that the automotive, aviation and military segments care about. Building out capacity to secure your supply chains is potentially a very sensible strategic decision, but I'll eat my hat…
> the semiconductor market is mature bordering on stagnant Is this true? And by what measure? I see nothing but incredible growth driven by cloud, mobile, and AI/ML.