For those experiencing this type of "black swan, but good" event for the first time, it is helpful to recognize that the human tendency to believe that all future "big events" will be dystopian downers, is statistically unsound. For a while I've kept a list of the things that could be "good" swan events, but to be fair I didn't have "room temperature superconductor on that list" :-) Other things that could happen: 1)…
It would have been more convincing if you had given real past examples rather than speculative future ones :) Although I'm pretty sure there are plenty that many people can think of, so it doesn't really detract much from your point.
Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
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Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#242Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd go as to far as saying GPT-4 is capable of fairly complex reasoning, at least in my experience tossing complicated questions and situations at ChatGPT Plus.
GPT4 is simultaneously smarter than and stupider than anyone you've ever met.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#243For those experiencing this type of "black swan, but good" event for the first time, it is helpful to recognize that the human tendency to believe that all future "big events" will be dystopian downers, is statistically unsound. For a while I've kept a list of the things that could be "good" swan events, but to be fair I didn't have "room temperature superconductor on that list" :-) Other things that could happen: 1)…
1) Subset breakthrough here potentially related to cancer, we'll see how the peer review and evolution to becoming an available standard of care goes. City of Hope scientists develop targeted chemotherapy able to kill all solid tumors in preclinical research https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/997141
Apparently. I'm not an expect, but it's what I have encountered elsewhere.
Still great news! But not quite as revolutionary as the headline implies.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#244On a completely different front, let's say the paper completely checks out and they have discovered this miracle. How strong are the patent protections on materials science? For example, if someone could replicate the effect with lead + gold, would that be considered a novel material which would not be subject to licensing? Is it the material itself or the method of production?
> let's say the paper completely checks out and they have discovered this miracle. How strong are the patent protections on materials science? If it's literally a room-temperature superconductor, the present state of the law is irrelevant. China won't play by the rules. If Korea tries to corner it in the West, the rules will be replaced. (This would have been true had the inventor been French or American, too.)
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#245For those experiencing this type of "black swan, but good" event for the first time, it is helpful to recognize that the human tendency to believe that all future "big events" will be dystopian downers, is statistically unsound. For a while I've kept a list of the things that could be "good" swan events, but to be fair I didn't have "room temperature superconductor on that list" :-) Other things that could happen: 1)…
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#246I get the idea of superconductivity at room temperature in theory. But I don't have enough knowledge to understand in real terms, how will the world change if this is true?
It means we won't lose MRIs when the earth finally runs out of helium as they require liquid helium to run the superconductors that generate the magnetic field. We're running out of helium with no way to replenish it. Helium is the only element on the periodic table which is a non-renewable resource on Earth. So MRIs will get much cheaper, and they could end up being as cheap as taking an x-ray today.
I do think it's too early to say one way or the other what all of this ends up looking like, so we might find that purer/larger samples have better properties than what was measured so far, or the discovery puts us on the trail of other RTAPS in the same class that might be better for these purposes.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#247For those experiencing this type of "black swan, but good" event for the first time, it is helpful to recognize that the human tendency to believe that all future "big events" will be dystopian downers, is statistically unsound. For a while I've kept a list of the things that could be "good" swan events, but to be fair I didn't have "room temperature superconductor on that list" :-) Other things that could happen: 1)…
It would have been more convincing if you had given real past examples rather than speculative future ones :) Although I'm pretty sure there are plenty that many people can think of, so it doesn't really detract much from your point.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#248I'm looking forward to experiments with LK-99 and twistronics. What a time to be alive. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twistronics . https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2101/2101.04501.pdf
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#249Earlier quoted context omitted.
1) doesn't make a whole lot of sense. A perfect understanding of something doesn't mean you can fix anything wrong with it. 3) has already happened. The AI chat bots aren't very smart, but they're clearly capable of some degree of basic reasoning.
Not sure that AI chat bots are actually reasoning in any basic way, so much as they are filtering out noise and presenting an output that might satisfy the input, but it's often quite wrong. It's still more of a parlor trick than it is intelligence or reason.
Not sure if there is a difference, for sufficiently abstract interpretations of “satisfy the input”
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#250China is taking the lead, they harvest the fruit of their massive investment in education 20 years ago, congrats!
This is a South Korean breakthrough
However, take a look at this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LK-99#Replication_attempts
0 from both the EU and the US
Getting downvoted over this speaks volume ;)