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This time, it feels different

nadh.in

241–249 of 249 posts

Re: This time, it feels different

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Making Organizational intelligence and knowledge management convoluted and compartmented is one of if not the core way that managers keep power over employees. So that’s not a problem that a company wants solved. Of course they want it solved. They just don't want to pay for it (and neither do customers). Larger business customers are not exposed to this madness that consumers and small businesses are having to deal…

Oh yes I’m sorry I forgot the goal was zero employment

Of course that is the goal. Employment is a necessary evil. Ideally, all human activity should be voluntary.

Re: This time, it feels different

#242
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will give you all the power of my phone and you give me a billion dollars. Easy trade right.

You missed the point. In the 70s you didn’t have the ability to give someone the power of your phone. If you did, the ultra wealthy would have paid a billion for it (inflation adjusted). The technology you take for granted is huge. Warren Buffet said he would rather give up flying on a private jet, than give up his smartphone.

No, you missed the point. Something that is a baseline today is being used to justify absolutely colossal disparity in how people live on the unimaginative base of "gee, you are not a caveman".

Your phone does not mean that you don't have to work three jobs to have a roof over your head and can't have a family. Having a phone does not make you rich.

Re: This time, it feels different

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pure LLMs alone can probably not go vastly beyond human intelligence because they rely on imitating humans (human text). I think there is still one or two breakthroughs missing to get robotics solved.

PaLM aalready includes some LLM-generated training (consensus of different approaches), and these kinds of synthetic self-driven training metrics will only get more sophisticated and effective at improving the capabilities. It’s conceivable that we will start seeing AlphaZero-like improvement curves in reasoning.

I'm not sure how consensus would get you significantly above human baseline. Doesn't that just get you some sort of average?

The basic problem with synthetic self-training is that we need some reward function which tells us whether a given synthetic example is good. In case of AlphaGo Zero, this was a synthetic strategy which won the game, or scored a lot. Which can be automatically detected. But how do we automatically recognize that synthetic text has "high quality"?

One case where it might work is proofs in a formal proof language which can be checked automatically via software. So if a language model is tasked to generate synthetic conjecture/proof pairs, it is possible to automatically recognize the correct ones, and use that for self-training data (unsupervised, supervised, reinforcement, I'm not sure), enabling it to recursively create more complex synthetic proofs.

A very similar approach (with some sort of unit tests instead of proofs) is described here in more detail: https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.14502 It was a while that I read it, so my description above is kinda fuzzy. It might involve some adversarial step that I missed.

One problem is to get this process off the ground (bootstrapping), which is difficult, since we need some baseline capability first to create any successful synthetic examples, and there aren't a lot of human created formal proofs which can be used as bootstrapping training data.

Another problem is that, even if it worked, this system would just be good at generating proofs. Maybe there is some amount of transfer to natural language intelligence, but I'm not sure about that.

If you have a different idea for creating a reward signal, I would be interested how it could be done.

Re: This time, it feels different

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yes I’m sorry I forgot the goal was zero employment

Of course that is the goal. Employment is a necessary evil. Ideally, all human activity should be voluntary.

Agreed, however UNTIL we figure out how to do that, we're stuck with pvp nightmare capitalism

To get where you want, you have to actively change the structure and trajectory of society

Re: This time, it feels different

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course that is the goal. Employment is a necessary evil. Ideally, all human activity should be voluntary.

Agreed, however UNTIL we figure out how to do that, we're stuck with pvp nightmare capitalism To get where you want, you have to actively change the structure and trajectory of society

I agree that a lot of structural change will be necessary. But automating stuff and solving the associated societal problems will have to go hand in hand.

Fetishising (forced) human labour is deeply ingrained across all political divides and even in psychology and religion.

The political will to make the necessary changes will only exist once it becomes obvious that we have no other choice.

Re: This time, it feels different

#246
post #202
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess "it depends"... My internet-connected smart phone allows me to pay securely for things, unlock the public city bikes for local transit, find quickly directions for a place, provide me answers to questions, read books at the cafe, etc... All this without a single wallet or bag of "stuff" dangling over my shoulders. Now... I don't have a facebook account ... YMMV ... :)

Until your battery dies, or the app fails. A co-worker had to skip lunch last month because he relied on his phone for payments and the app wouldn't let him pay - no explanation given. I keep critical stuff like payment methods separate and have no plans to stop carrying a wallet because of stuff like this.

It's amazing to me that people who work closely with software are happy to introduce a software powered single point of failure in their ability to function.

Re: This time, it feels different

#247
post #202
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess "it depends"... My internet-connected smart phone allows me to pay securely for things, unlock the public city bikes for local transit, find quickly directions for a place, provide me answers to questions, read books at the cafe, etc... All this without a single wallet or bag of "stuff" dangling over my shoulders. Now... I don't have a facebook account ... YMMV ... :)

Until your battery dies, or the app fails. A co-worker had to skip lunch last month because he relied on his phone for payments and the app wouldn't let him pay - no explanation given. I keep critical stuff like payment methods separate and have no plans to stop carrying a wallet because of stuff like this.

> Until your battery dies, or the app fails.

Or the phone falls on the sidewalk and the screen cracks rendering the entire phone useless.

Re: This time, it feels different

#248

Geez people. Please learn to identify hypes, but most importantly the causes of hypes. LLM is fundamentally information processing technology. Not the path to AGI, not an emerging sentience. The reason "this time" feels so amazing is that the unwashed masses suddenly got access to new information processing technology in a context where their tools been stagnant for decades . Not because it was not possible, but beca…

Even if the core difference is accessibility, that is huge. I see AI in 2023 as a pivotal moment similar to 1977 with personal computers, 1994 for the internet and 2007 for mobile computing. All of these technologies had a history before their pivotal moments but when the time was right things changed fast. Having easy access to the technology is starting to change the way I think about what is possible for computing…

2023 is the year where I personally benefit from LLMs, and might spend money on them as casually as others spend on video streaming, but the pivotal moment could still be a year or few away.

Re: This time, it feels different

#249
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You missed the point. In the 70s you didn’t have the ability to give someone the power of your phone. If you did, the ultra wealthy would have paid a billion for it (inflation adjusted). The technology you take for granted is huge. Warren Buffet said he would rather give up flying on a private jet, than give up his smartphone.

No, you missed the point. Something that is a baseline today is being used to justify absolutely colossal disparity in how people live on the unimaginative base of "gee, you are not a caveman". Your phone does not mean that you don't have to work three jobs to have a roof over your head and can't have a family. Having a phone does not make you rich.

You need to reread the thread. There are some things that are significantly better for common people today. So much better that the richest people would have given up significant chunks of their fortunes for them in the 70s.

This does not mean it’s still difficult to get housing. It’s just a point that one aspect of our lives is unfathomably better than before and now we take it for granted.

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