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Bank failures come in waves

yarn.pranshum.com

241–250 of 259 posts

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#241

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This exists, many times over. It's called a cash sweep. See one example here: https://www.wellsfargo.com/investing/cash-sweep/

And just as a warning, it is still not clear how sweep accounts are handled in the case where the primary bank fails. SVB offered sweep accounts. But due to the intervention, the recovery process of those accounts was never tested in a real life scenario. If recovering your sweep accounts takes months, that could be really bad for a business trying to make payroll. And from what I read, there is some "operational ris…

Great points. Maybe protection can be written into the rules to remove that uncertainty?

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The buck stops at the government, as we are seeing with changing laws... Not to mention the majority party in the US House is threatening default.

The party in the House always threatens to not raise the debt ceiling if the POTUS is of a different party. It has been like this for decades.

No, it's specifically the Republican party that threatens to default on the debt ceiling if the president is a Democrat.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#243
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FYI, this part didn't happen: > printing 40% of the money supply in two years

Here's the data on M2 money supply in billions of dollars, for those curious, in billions of dollars: Feb 2020: 15,457.9 Feb 2022: 21,699.2 This is a 40.3% increase. To be charitable, this money isn't all on printed physical cash dollar bills, but nowadays there is no need for it to be. (I'm tempted not to be charitable though.) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

[deleted]

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#244
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FYI, this part didn't happen: > printing 40% of the money supply in two years

I see this repeated a lot. Are you trying to be technical and say the money wasn't physically printed? If you are doing that, you are being ridiculous. But if you are not trying to be technical could you please provide some proof? Another responder was nice enough to give you the M2 money supply numbers which 100% support what you are saying didn't happen.

Not a technicality, 40% of the money supply was not printed/created in any remotely recent two year period.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#245
post #170

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An economy run on Bitcoin is an absolute dystopia. You reluinquish monetary control to a deflationary coin, being in the whim of Bitcoin whales. People who advocate for it, either are whales or they are stupid. Ask south europe how well it worked for them having no power over their monetary policy.

Continuing this charade of "the government and banks are competent at monetary control" is more stupid. Inflation is theft.

This is myopic beyond reason. Inflation is now a thing so you care about it. The real problem lies in things that most western countries never had to deal with. What do you do when your country is not good at creating high-value products and services that you can sell to a premium to the rest of the world? What China did, you make cheap stuff. How do you make cheap stuff? You print more money and you devalue your currency. Inflation will make sure you make what you can in-house cheap enough. Now you can export it cheap as well.

This can't work with bitcoin. If your country can't export things in a premium you are F'ed. You can't print money to stimulate demand for local goods, your only option is to violently reduce the average quality of life enough that you will be wiling to work for less. Printing money creates inflation but it can also kick a positive spiral of demand/supply. While "austerity" has been shown to just make the problem worse by gutting demand in general

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In order for China to continue to export to America which they obviously want todo, they have to maintain exchange rates stable. The only way for them to do this is to accumulate dollars.

You got it backwards. People want to export to the US in exchange for dollars only if dollars are worth something. If the dollar won't hold its value well enough people will find other markets and hold other currencies.

No I don't think so. Dollars sitting in a bank have zero utility. At the end of the day what is worth more in real terms, an IPhone today or some 1000 dollar deposit for tomorrow ? So who winning in that trade off?

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where is the evidence that isn't temporary, non-universal, or other clear confounders like that? Are you virtue signaling that you have inherent work ethics or things like that or do you _actually_ think people would still work if they didn't have to. Comments like this on HN make me think nobody here ever speaks to a real human

If you want evidence that is permanent and universal, guess what you have to do? You have to actually implement Universal Basic Income on a large scale, and keep it going for decades. If you aren't willing to support doing that because "there isn't permanent, universal evidence", then you're creating a catch-22. There is evidence that is robust and scientifically rigorous. That should be enough, at the very least, to…

"I don't personally know a single person who, if given the chance, would choose to abandon work of all kinds forever. " this is what i mean. You're in some kind of insane bubble and need to wake up. Does everyone around you have a "career"? you're glorifying work way beyond regular person life experience

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#248
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no safe investment of any kind. Even bonds or cash have risks. This stuff is immensely complicated once you peer behind the curtains.

Putting money at the central bank (deposit facility) is safe

That's not an investment, though, there's no return on investment. It's just storage.

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#249
post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putting money at the central bank (deposit facility) is safe

That's not an investment, though, there's no return on investment. It's just storage.

No you get the overnight rate. Currently 4.65% for USD and 3% for EUR

Re: Bank failures come in waves

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want evidence that is permanent and universal, guess what you have to do? You have to actually implement Universal Basic Income on a large scale, and keep it going for decades. If you aren't willing to support doing that because "there isn't permanent, universal evidence", then you're creating a catch-22. There is evidence that is robust and scientifically rigorous. That should be enough, at the very least, to…

"I don't personally know a single person who, if given the chance, would choose to abandon work of all kinds forever. " this is what i mean. You're in some kind of insane bubble and need to wake up. Does everyone around you have a "career"? you're glorifying work way beyond regular person life experience

No, they definitely don't. Did you see where I said I knew disabled people who were unemployed because, in our current system, they are unemployable, but actually want to be doing stuff?

The point isn't "glorifying work". It's that people don't actually want to be couch potatoes. They want enrichment. They want activity. They want meaningful stimulation.

Look at us more like zoo animals and maybe it'll make more sense: we know that giving tigers a pumpkin full of meat is more beneficial for their mental health than just dropping the same meat in front of them to eat with no effort. Humans aren't that different.

Even beyond that, though, humans want purpose. We want our lives to have some meaning, and it's pretty hard for most people to find that in sitting around doing nothing all day every day unless they have no other choice.

Perhaps it would also help to note that "work" isn't synonymous with "go to an office and file insurance claims for 8 hours" or anything like that. Writing is work. Acting is work. Making video games is work. Helping old people get around is work.

But the other thing is...if you would, if given the chance, just sit back and relax all day every day...then I hope that you get that chance! I believe that every person should have the opportunity to do what feels most fulfilling to them, and not just be required to work at specific kinds of jobs for specific types of schedules simply to be allowed to continue existing on this planet.

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