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IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

theguardian.com

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Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#241

Post by Retric »

politician wrote: post #234
mrpopo wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, 1.5C will not kill 800+ million people. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/ 1.5C is the (likely to be overshooted) goal. The IPCC report assesses that 2011-2020 is already 1.1C warmer than 1850-1900 (page 7), that the world has been warming by ~0.2C/decade (saw it somewhere), and that current policies (if implemented) will lead to a warming of +3.2C by 2100 (page 23). Page 16 shows various ways in which a…

Famine will. Rice fails to germinate at 35°C. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-06118-0_...

False, 35C is described as the highest optimal temperature not the maximum in your link. Yields do slowly decline with increased temperature. For specifics, “Germination occurs within the temperature range of 50° to 107°F with an optimum temperature of about 87°F.”

https://www.uaex.uada.edu/publications/pdf/mp192/chapter-2.p...

Further, it’s exactly the kind of reason to chose a new variety over an old one.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#242

Post by lern_too_spel »

guerrilla wrote: post #215
makerofspoons wrote: post #145

The comparisons between the AR5 and AR6 are alarming. Now, under no emission scenarios other than low and very low which we are not tracking close to, we reach +2C at or just before 2050. Many reading this thread will see 3 degrees by the time they plan to retire. This comes with drought, undernourishment, and mass migration: https://sciencenorway.no/climate-climate-change/deadly-heat-...

Do people in capitals not understand or believe this? What do rich people (some of whom control large parts of the media) plan to do exactly? Die? Bunker? I mean seriously.

Build walls to keep out refugees.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#243

Post by MonkeyMalarky »

guerrilla wrote: post #215
makerofspoons wrote: post #145

The comparisons between the AR5 and AR6 are alarming. Now, under no emission scenarios other than low and very low which we are not tracking close to, we reach +2C at or just before 2050. Many reading this thread will see 3 degrees by the time they plan to retire. This comes with drought, undernourishment, and mass migration: https://sciencenorway.no/climate-climate-change/deadly-heat-...

Do people in capitals not understand or believe this? What do rich people (some of whom control large parts of the media) plan to do exactly? Die? Bunker? I mean seriously.

Die? I think it's die. Look at Biden, Putin, Xi, and Rupert Murdoch they range from old to really fucking old.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#244

Post by rolenthedeep »

dr_dshiv wrote: post #223
coolspot wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2050 Luckily that aligns with the singularity timeline. AGI will have a very good carrot for us to agree on its terms.

It wants Ohio

Literally nobody would miss it.

We'd need another state to pick on, though. Probably West Virginia.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#245

Post by WorldMaker »

br4dN3w wrote: post #99
jfengel wrote: post #77

It's the "final warning" in the sense that the next report is going to be issued in 2030. By that time, 1.5C will be be inevitable. We may not have hit the temperature yet, but only because it takes a few years for the temperature to respond to the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. Which is to say, if we don't change right now, then when the next report comes out, we will already have enough CO2 in the atmo…

[dead]

I can't believe the problem has anything at all to do with specific individuals in science when the clear elephant in the room is that an entire American political party decided decades ago that facts and reality were biased against them and the only "solution" was to treat reality and facts as the enemy, choose anti-intellectualism as a core party platform/tenet, and to keep votes that they needed to keep at least half of America consistently playing a conspiracy-theory-laced alternate reality game of utter brinksmanship and terrifying levels of distrust and paranoia versus actual reality.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#246

Post by Retric »

tablespoon wrote: post #187
Retric wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Flooding. Drowning is when a living organism is submerged, flooding is when buildings are submerged.

> Drowning is when a living organism is submerged... ...and dies from it, which is a pretty important aspect to the word. If the organism doesn't die, it's swimming or just submerged.

Drowning is a process. You can escape or be rescued before death.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#247

Post by suby »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #185

Just in case it saves one person the effort to research this themselves ... for some reason I find the measurement of climate change in units of temperature a bit problematic (though entirely rational). It tends to suggest the old bugbear of "global warming", which of course gets translated by deniers (& skeptics) into "well it's colder here so that's wrong". I spent a while digging in to try to get some numbers on a…

The analogy I've seen which I like is to that of a boiling pot of water on a stove. As you increase the heat (energy) in the system, the water level fluctuates throughout. You have points where there's a higher water level, but you also have points where there's a lower water level.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#248

Post by ep103 »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #185

Just in case it saves one person the effort to research this themselves ... for some reason I find the measurement of climate change in units of temperature a bit problematic (though entirely rational). It tends to suggest the old bugbear of "global warming", which of course gets translated by deniers (& skeptics) into "well it's colder here so that's wrong". I spent a while digging in to try to get some numbers on a…

The thing that blew my mind was that they always report this in degrees Celsius.

I'm in America, even despite an engineering degree, I think in Fahrenheit.

1.5C sounds like a small number, until you remember that Fahrenheit is ~2x 1C.

So 1.5 degrees C is ~3 degrees F. Which, to me, just emotionally feels like a bigger number despite being the same empiraclly.

Similarly, it means when the IPCC is saying there might be a 7C change in 100 years, they mean a 15F change. 15F is emotionally terrifying to me. Its the difference between 85 degrees and 100. 7C is an abstract concept to me.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#249

Post by Symmetry »

PurpleRamen wrote: post #49
NhanH wrote: post #25

Let’s say if there is a magical wand that can will any policy the user wants to happen — so the magic can’t remove carbon, but it allows the bearer to pursue any mean within humanity technological abilities — what are the actual actions that could be taken to fight climate change? My impression is that even the big polluter like China (as an example) is already on full speed to build more nuclear plant or solar power…

But removing carbon is within humanities technological abilities. I mean, just plant enough trees, and it's mostly done. This is not even a matter of technology. Removing sources of pollution, like certain animals we use for food and other things is another simple solution, which demands not technology at all. This problem is not a matter of technology, it's yet another problem of society and people.

One square meter of forest land, if any fallen trees are sequestered in a way so they never rot, will be enough to offset 1 watt of fossil fuel energy use. It's not enough to offset our current civilization by a long shot.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#250

Post by Nevermark »

guerrilla wrote: post #215
makerofspoons wrote: post #145

The comparisons between the AR5 and AR6 are alarming. Now, under no emission scenarios other than low and very low which we are not tracking close to, we reach +2C at or just before 2050. Many reading this thread will see 3 degrees by the time they plan to retire. This comes with drought, undernourishment, and mass migration: https://sciencenorway.no/climate-climate-change/deadly-heat-...

Do people in capitals not understand or believe this? What do rich people (some of whom control large parts of the media) plan to do exactly? Die? Bunker? I mean seriously.

The problem is to gain political power you have to out compete others for money and votes.

Understanding a problem, and being able to hold on to power while making the hard decisions is a classic unsolved problem in politics.

But it's infinitely harder with very few (two!?!) high centralized litmus-tested groupthink political parties, incentivized to lock up power unilaterally, and marginalize the power of other parties, not skills conducive to governing.

And also infinitely harder with unlimited spending by corporations (who are not citizens, and don't share the interests of citizens), where tiny groups of executives get to leverage all their companies resources toward tilting the political field in their favor, in order to get massive bonuses for feeding insatiable shareholder demand. But without reflecting any of the decency that shareholders might actually have.

It's the moloch beast. The whole system is the problem, but it's near impossible to improve the system's design because it will fight that at every step.

It mindlessly cares about its own survival. Which is how it came to be.

Even if every single person in the system actually wants to do the hard things that will keep the planet in good shape.

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