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Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

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Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#241

Post by theironhammer »

DangerousPie wrote: post #170
tazjin wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is the only actor that makes any sense to me, especially after Blinken's statement yesterday (~ "it was in nobody's interest, but would you look at the benefits!"). Combine that with the US naval activity in the exact area around the time, and also the "anti"-mine "drills" they did there earlier this year. The US knows that none of their vassals will ever openly accuse them, and for the Western media it was Ru…

Sabotaging their allies' key infrastructure would be an absolutely crazy amount of risk for the US. Even if they think there is a 99% chance they'd not get caught, that is a 1% chance of completely destroying relations their with Germany, Scandinavia, the EU, and probably the entire world. And all of that risk for the very marginal benefit of disabling some pipelines that weren't going to be used anytime soon any way…

The EU is a Vasal of the USA. The EU is completely dependent on USA for Military protection.

Germany cut itself off from Russian gas before securing an alternate source is pure Vasalage.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#242

Post by semi-extrinsic »

maratc wrote: post #184
semi-extrinsic wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, but they definitely have the possibility after the event to replay recordings from their very nice naval radar systems to see if there was a surface vessel doing something in those locations. Also, I understand the depth of the pipeline is 80-100 meters so you need divers experienced with hypoxic trimix (or an ROV) and you need to be able to carry a 50-100 kg payload in addition to all the diving kit. Just to qua…

I'm one training short of hypoxic trimix (after a regular trimix course). I think you seriously over-estimate the complexity: open-water course is 3 days, advanced open-water is 2 days, nitrox is ... half a day?, basic tech diving (advanced nitrox + decompression procedures) is 7 days (50-100 dives minimum iirc), trimix is another 7 to 10 days. Loads of people I know did all that without any difficulty and without le…

Yeah, maybe I am over-estimating, I only have advanced open-water. But I thought you had to have logged like 50 dives at X depth between each step up the training ladder for trimix, so you need a minimum of like 200 dives total to reach hypoxic trimix? In my book that is multiple years of practice and not everyone will cut it.

So an organization either needs to make preparations for this many years in advance, or try to recruit someone who both has some form of extremist beliefs and a hobby that requires very specialized training. Neither of those things are very simple, but the first one is doable, yes.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#243

Post by SR2Z »

rendall wrote: post #88
gambiting wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> it generally makes absolutely no sense for Russia to be behind this Of course it does - Poland is entirely relying on the Norway to Poland gas pipeline, if that goes then a country of 50 million people has no gas this winter. Blowing up the Nordstream was(to me) a clear signal that EU needs to be careful or the Norwegian pipelines are going up next.

Do you really feel like "send a clear signal that EU needs to be careful or the Norwegian pipelines are going to be next" is a more plausible motivation above "permanently end European reliance on Russian energy"?

tbqf that ship has kind of sailed - it'd be hard for the EU to continue to depend on Russian gas after this war anyways.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#244

Post by Fatnino »

ktfelt wrote: post #140
piaste wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

I noticed that the Western press is quiet, too. Normally they'd scream "terrorist attack" on every front page. Now they only cite Ukraine claiming a Russian terror attack or say nothing. If a Canadian pipe was blown up, the headlines would be different.

If a Canadian pipe was destroyed it was obviously ecoterrorists

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#245

Post by petre »

belorn wrote: post #164
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

Diving down 60-80 meters in the baltic ocean is quite advanced technical diving if you are just going to go down there and up again. Doing any kind of work (which increase breathing) at those depths is a massive step in complexity. We are talking about cold water diving, at hypoxic gas depths, with usually low visibility. The dive would require several hours of decompression in the middle of a shipping lane. The dens…

One doesn't need to dive. Knowledge of the pipeline's path and depth is enough. If you have a sonar it's even easier. Make a depth charge out of a barrel, set a timer and detonate it near the pipeline. Can be accomplished with a 27 ft fishing boat.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#246

Post by maratc »

rich_sasha wrote: post #136
rendall wrote: post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I think you somewhat underestimate the difficulty of blowing this up. You have to find it first. Diving to 80 metres is _not_ child's play! Then locating the pipe with possibly poor visibility. Finally it's a big chunk of metal and concrete, you'd need the kind of explosives you can't just buy at your local corner store. I'd imagine Baltic traffic is well monitored, especially now, so if you don't want to be caught,…

> You have to find it first.

It would be very visible on an average sonar. (An average sonar is $500 or so.)

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#247

Post by maratc »

londons_explore wrote: post #126
Findecanor wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The three explosion sites are at depths of 70 - 80 meters. That would require a trained diver with professional equipment, or an underwater drone. Not that professional divers don't go deeper. But a recreational scuba diver, with readily available gear would dive to max half that depth.

Could the explosives have been lowered on a rope from a boat with no diver?

In theory, yes. In practice, the wind and the currents make it extremely hard to put the load in a vicinity of the pipe at 80 m depth.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#248

Post by maratc »

pjerem wrote: post #178
XorNot wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would you trigger them? 100m down radio doesn't work at all. ELF antennas are nation-state level assets and need receiving antennas that are hundreds of metres long. Acoustic messaging is possible, but again hard to do. Timed charges are plausible but that's a heck of a commitment (of course 3/4 breaches suggests a possible misfire - I imagine theres a hunt on for the last one).

A good old clock.

That just happens to work at a depth of 80 meters.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#249

Post by mhh__ »

maratc wrote: post #186
piaste wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

But if the Russians were screaming bloody murder, this would no doubt be used to accuse them. So: Russians screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it. Russians aren't screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it.

This ignores the reasoning you are responding to in that they have patterns.

Governments, in modern parlance even though it's not new practice, troll each other - Russia in particular specializes in a particularly spiteful kind, so where is it now?

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#250

Post by mhh__ »

ktfelt wrote: post #140
piaste wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

I noticed that the Western press is quiet, too. Normally they'd scream "terrorist attack" on every front page. Now they only cite Ukraine claiming a Russian terror attack or say nothing. If a Canadian pipe was blown up, the headlines would be different.

Which examples of extremely high-stakes geopolitical meddling are you using to form that idea of normality from?

Normally we only find out long after said meddling, and what is referred to directly as terrorism is usually done so because it was committed someone easily classified as a terrorist.

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