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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#241

Post by Tade0 »

ed_balls wrote: post #196
Tade0 wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Pole, you're giving our elected representatives and secret services/special forces too much credit. Especially the latter were gutted by this government in its current and previous(2005-2007) incarnation under the guise of "decommunization" and replaced with people without the, to put it lightly, necessary qualifications. I mean, quite a few government motorcades got into accidents because the poor fool behind t…

Poland has an ideal device for this sabotage https://www.gospodarkamorska.pl/zdjecia/artykul/25081/135779...

If it was actually used this way I'll:

1. Eat my hat.

2. Go out and protest.

It would have been quite the new low, even for the current establishment.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#242

Post by pphysch »

tgv wrote: post #213
jcranmer wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

None of these make much sense. It's pretty idle to speculate, and the list is most likely incomplete and inaccurate. It only feeds the trolls. Then again, this whole thread is full of fingerpointing without evidence. If HN can't contain itself, what won't the twitter and facebook, and –may God forget– Truth Social do?

No evidence? What do you think Biden meant when he replied "I promise you, we will be able to do it" [1] when asked about stopping NS2 just before the war this year?

Also note the recent pro-NS2 protests in Germany, whose energy costs have skyrocketed before winter.

[1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/biden-says-nord-stream-2-won...

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#243

Post by jcranmer »

ShivShankaran wrote: post #222
NeverFade wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

Quoted post unavailable.

> The Siberian pipeline was also sabotaged by the US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberian_pipeline_sabotage

I'm skeptical of that claim. It is sourced entirely from an autobiography, and there's no corroborating evidence of the explosion from any other source.

> Russia has been pressuring Germany to re-open NordStrom 2 for weeks now.

Maybe, but Germany hasn't been close to yielding to that pressure.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#244

Post by ancorevard »

The most plain explanation is that this was simply a warning message from Russia.

These two pipelines have no longer any value to them, nor to EU. However, what does have value are the numerous pipelines from Norway and other countries to EU. And this is where the real treat is. Russia has now shown it is willing to blow up infrastructure outside Ukraine.

Russia is known to have carefully mapped out the gas pipelines from Norway to UK. Remember how Russian oligark luxury ships carefully navigated close to gas pipelines, while the cover was that the oligark was attending Molde jazzfestival? Similar activity observed by Russian fishing ships.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#246

Post by [deleted] »

macintux wrote: post #146
pelorat wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure you have heard about these technical problems Russia is having with the terminal on their side, the technical problems they claim are behind the reason the gas is turned off? Well it's not really technical problems, it's "technical problems" because otherwise the shut off would have been contact violations. This is no different, now they can keep the gas off without violating international trade law.

I think Russia is well past the point of caring about international law.

[deleted]

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#247

Post by red_trumpet »

Roark66 wrote: post #145

I don't see a mention that today is the day Poland officially opens up its pipeline to Denmark and Norway. The pipeline Russia (and to a much lesser extent Germany) put a lot of resources trying to jeopardize. Some of the things those two countries did include: Financing of various "grassroots ecology groups" that managed to find an extremely important field mouse (no joke!) habitat on the planned route which caused…

Do you have any sources to back up your claims?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#248

Post by rurp »

My theory is that Putin ordered it. He recently made two major escalations, mobilization and annexation, that greatly decrease the odds of a peaceful settlement and increase the odds of him being overthrown internally. This move undercuts the leverage a new leader would have after a coup, since it will be harder to get gas flowing again following a truce.

Putin seems to be staking his entire regime on this war and likely feels that upping the stakes is to his benefit. His odds of winning a conventional military victory are looking more and more slim, but ratcheting up the risk might get the West to back down, at least in his mind.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#249

Post by nkingsy »

_kbh_ wrote: post #204
nkingsy wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nice find! Was talking to a trumper who was blaming the invasion on the US having a weak president. Seems like the opposite if anything. Biden quarterbacked the maidan coup. Seeing him become president probably wasn’t a happy moment for Putin. Edit: these things are censored in google, Wikipedia etc by US state actors. We largely have to go on the words of people like Max Blumenthal and others who have been largely c…

> Edit: these things are censored in google, Wikipedia etc by US state actors. We largely have to go on the words of people like Max Blumenthal and others who have been largely censored and scrubbed from easy access by these same state apparatuses or wait until foia requests reveal what they always reveal about our benevolent state. Max Blumenthal is a Russian propagandist who is a regular guest on Russian state back…

I’m sure he takes the appearances he can get after having all his sources of funding cut.

I hope you’re being paid well to call people propagandists who have devoted their lives and sacrificed everything to speak truth to power.

I don’t take it at face value and it does seem he has an understandable bias at this point.

The gray zone is super strange to read, but these are investigative journalists on the ground. Please point me to a source that has hard proof of ANY of this information being incorrect.

Labeling people propagandists and conspiracy theorists is a new form of censorship and it is terrifying.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#250

Post by sidibe »

gpderetta wrote: post #175
macintux wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin seems to be taking the approach of sowing as much chaos as possible. A hot war with the west is useful to him to rally the country behind him. Escalation is just another tool.

Putin seem to be barely able to wage a war against Ukraine, wanting to drag NATO openly in it seems crazy. And no, I don't buy that Putin is crazy.

I don't have any idea about who blew up the pipeline but it's clear that Putin sees his only way out of the mess he has put himself in is escalating to the point where western countries are worried enough about the consequences to let him have some kind of concessions in Ukraine. That's not crazy if you see it as your only option.
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