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Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

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Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#241

Post by Gwypaas »

kennend3 wrote: post #192
panick21_ wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The saddest vote (outside of immigration) in Swiss history is our complete destruction of nuclear energy in terms of both research and production. Instead of building new reactors we have committed to ... something. I only hope we can overturn this complete idiocy and start to build new reactors. Having been a fan of this for so long this is just sad and pathetic that we now have to consider things like rolling black…

As someone who is also "pro-nuclear" it is upsetting to see this take place. The "anti-nuclear" camp has won, but based on what sort of logical argument? Fear? what about Chernobyl? It is one thing to be "anti-nuclear" but they failed to provide alternatives. "WIND" or "Solar" is not going to replace 3,500 MW of nuclear power without damaging a LOT of land. Now millions face rolling blackouts and energy shortages whe…

Simply cost. If the plants started in the early 2000s would have been delivered on time and budget they would be a huge part of the transition today.

Now nuclear costs 3-5x more compared to renewables and is simply not relevant.

> "WIND" or "Solar" is not going to replace 3,500 MW of nuclear power without damaging a LOT of land.

If land use is what you measure impact based on a much better target is the beef industry.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/land-use-per-kg-poore

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#242

Post by emkoemko »

The_Colonel wrote: post #194
koheripbal wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you honestly suggesting this is a fabricated crisis?

Isn't it obvious? Gas is not sanctioned, yet the supply of Russian gas to Europe was significantly reduced. After many b***t excuses, Russia admitted that the gas supplies won't be resumed until the sanctions are lifted. So yes, the crisis is manufactured by Russia to produce a political leverage. And part of that strategy is of course spreading FUD through various media.

why does Russia need sanctions lifted Putin said it won't effect Russia at all

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#243

Post by toast0 »

baobabKoodaa wrote: post #195
astra90 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2003, the Belgian government decided to stop producing nuclear energy, mostly driven by the Green party. They introduced a law that contained a schedule to shut down a number of nuclear power plants in the country. In 2015 the government already extended the lifespan of 2 nuclear power plants. However, the power plant that was just shut down (Doel 3) did not get an extension of lifespan and so it has been shut dow…

Let me get this straight... Politicians wrote a schedule in 2003. According to the schedule, this particular plant should be shut down now. And we have people in this thread (not you) claiming that there are "technical reasons" why the plant has to be shut down right now, not after this winter. So, by pure coincidence, politicians in 2003 just happened to predict the exact date 19 years in the future when it would no…

When you have a planned shutdown date, you stop doing maintenance work that is needed to continue operating after that date. Maybe there's some leeway, maybe there isn't. Depends on how much maintenance was skipped, and how much maintenance is required de jure and how much maintenance is required de facto.

Ideally, on the day after planned shutdown, your reactor would be in need of refueling, and all the other large maintenance items; and you wouldn't have the parts on hand to do it. 19 years is plenty of time to align the schedules.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#244

Post by mrtksn »

tluyben2 wrote: post #37

I am happy I got solar earlier this year. I thought it would be very expensive but we are very frugal with energy and it only was 7k euro to go off grid. During the day we can run anything (tons of sun so washing, dish washing, etc etc), during the night less so but we go to bed early (21:00) and get up at 5.

I'm happy for you as big fan of the nuclear reactor in the skies. I wonder though, what is the feasibility of energy storage? Is it too expensive to have enough storage till midnight?

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#245

Post by thrown_22 »

There are far too many people who don't understand the difference between power and energy.

If you give me a lump of coal you give me power. If I burn that coal I get power.

Renewable energy is cheap. Renewable power isn't.

Nuclear energy is expensive. Nuclear power isn't.

You can't run a modern economy on renewables because you can't turn off society when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow.

Europe is now learning this painful lesson.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#246

Post by kennend3 »

mistrial9 wrote: post #172
micwag wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We also have to remember that Europe seized Russian euros and broke contracts in other ways First point is true, but the second ist not. Germany went out its way to ensure all contracts are fulfilled to avoid this claim. > it's not really obvious if Russia would even want to go back to selling to Europe. Russia very much wants to go back to selling gas and oil to europe, they have after all no other relevant indust…

> Even chinese and indian experts see russia as the loser of this conflict how is the ruble doing on international currency exchange?

> how is the ruble doing on international currency exchange?

I always find it strange when people post comments like this. It is a clear indicator you don't understand financial markets.

If you were to look at the data yourself, you would see in Oct 2017 it was 58.11 and in Oct 2022 it is 57.88 (vs USD)

In your opinion, what does this indicate? FX is always "Currency vs currency", so has the Ruble weakened? Perhaps the US dollar strengthened? What caused the change? Is the change even meaningful?

Is the change "market driven" or has the state intervened?

It looks like the state has been actively defending it, so what is your actual point?

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#247

Post by mtsr »

Sharlin wrote: post #166
sschueller wrote: post #8

Here is what Switzerland is doing at the moment to prevent the worst case which would be rolling black outs. They are planning for the worst case so they don't get caught with their pants down. This includes: - Currently trying to fill as many reservoirs as possible - Securing gas in foreign reservoirs. - Plan for emergency gas plants that can be operational by January/February, the time Switzerland has the least ele…

> Peoples' homes not getting electricity will be the last resort and unlikely as large industries will be asked first to stop producing and take the government money. Interesting. Here in Finland the plan is to target domestic use first if the push comes to shove, to keep the industry up and running.

One reason for the difference could be that heating in consumers homes is very much dependent on electricity (whether or not the actual heating is gas-powered notwithstanding), whereas in other countries there may be more woodfired heating, for example.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#248

Post by teraflop »

kennend3 wrote: post #214
koheripbal wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something similar was done in Canada about 40 years ago with the high-usage lights installed in every home (usually next to the washer/dryer). If the light was on, people paid significantly more. It was very very effective at reducing peak consumption.

This doesnt make sense, at least not for Ontario. Prior to "Time of use" billing (and having to upgrade all our meters in like 2016) i dont see how this was possible. The old meters simply measured how much power was used, they had no idea of WHEN it was used. The electric company would go house to house and "read the meter" once a month and report this back to billing. Based on your usage a bill would be produced an…

It's called a multiple-tariff meter. Of course it's easier to implement with modern electronics, but there's no reason you can't design an electromechanical meter device that has two different mechanisms to tally up "peak" and "off-peak" usage. I just did a quick Google search and found patents dating back to the 1970s.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#249

Post by jopsen »

koheripbal wrote: post #124
qalmakka wrote: post #78

The situation in Italy is bleak - due to widespread NIMBY-ism it's basically impossible to build anything. Even hooking up a LNG FSRU temporarily in an emergency situation like the current one is a monumental feat of burocracy and fighting against everyone and everything. There's a non zero chance that, together with the inevitable far right government that will come out of today's elections, the country will collaps…

Russia is going to capitalize on this and the current EU/NATO consensus on the Ukraine conflict will collapse. This winter is going to be a very volatile time.

Democracies can endure a lot of hardship. Deciding to give in to Russia is not going to be popular.

It's possible EU/NATO will collapse, it's not a while since we were tested like this. Well, maybe if we could endure covid lockdowns, then maybe a few rolling blackouts won't be the end of the EU.

If nothing else rolling blackouts would motivate massive investment.

Moreover, I doubt politicians will be able to see submission before Russia as a solution to rolling blackouts. The opposition will point out the obvious, Russia can just do it again.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#250

Post by rasz »

Havoc wrote: post #59

Scary, especially in light of the coming winter. This does seem to be ignoring some positives though - German putting some nuclear shutdowns on hold and France is looking like they might get their fleet back on track by beginning 2023 after they sorted out their corrosion issues. UK just fasttracked fracking (sigh) and sizewell C nuclear plant seems to have gotten the go ahead. Quite unfortunate that the writeup is o…

>German putting some nuclear shutdowns on hold

They put _two_ reactor shutdowns on hold in case OIL powered floating generators wont suffice. Third one is being shut down permanently just like russian friends requested. https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/berlin-eyes-oil...

>But despite warnings of multi-hour blackouts, Economy and Climate Action Minister Robert Habeck confirmed the country’s planned nuclear power phase-out by the end of 2022.

>Germany’s nuclear exit will only be forestalled by a temporary cold reserve of two power plants, which could be reactivated if needed to ensure grid stability in the country’s South

>On Monday, Berlin decided to mothball two of its nuclear reactors for months despite a host of experts insisting they continue running, while the third will be shut down completely, to be replaced by swimming oil-fired power plants.

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