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UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

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Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#241

Post by tankenmate »

throwaway22032 wrote: post #239
tankenmate wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative was mass unemployment, it would have taken two decades to re-prime the pump. So the alternative to such a large shock was either ~5 years of inflation / stagflation largely caused by supply side issues (can't get a driving test, can't get employees, can't get something shipped from China, etc), or a two decade (a la 30s / 40s) rebuilding the economy from scratch. And (as a side issue) you shouldn't be…

Nah, the alternative was to not close everything down :)

So then the only viable alternative to collapse (a la 1177BC), or the circling the drain that was 30s hyperinflation, is stagflation (which is somewhat similar to the 70s energy crisis).

So the question is can the UK handle it better than MT did in the early 80s. It took about 8 years last time, has monetary / fiscal understanding improved in any practical sense since then? Will the UK have another George Soros to inflict reality on the powers that be? Watch this space...

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#242

Post by ephbit »

alkonaut wrote: post #36
TrackerFF wrote: post #20

Hopefully the current energy crisis (in Europe) will further accelerate development in renewable energy. Seems much of Europe is still chained to LNG, and that demand is even wreaking havoc in countries which have been previously quite self-sustained, or really don't use LNG much themselves - with Norway being a good example.

If energy costs a lot, then anyone who can offer to sell energy production obviously has an attractive product. The problem as I see it is that what's needed is plannable capacity. While there is always need for more capacity, what we need most is capacity that works regardless of whether there is water in the rivers or wind in the turbines. And that's not easy. Biomass and Biogas for example.

> Biomass and Biogas for example.

Right.

And this has a very important implication. For home owners who're currently deciding which heating technology to replace an oil or gas furnace with.

Biomass and Biogas will be needed urgently in the near future to supply powerplants (of utility order of magnitude) that can then stabilize the electrical grid against the fluctuations that are going to be caused by more and more wind and solar power.

The way I see it - as enticing as it may be - to replace an oil/gas furnace with a wood pellet powered one in our current situation is the wrong choice in the long-term.

The prices for electricity will rise further, yes, but the crucial role of biomass and biogas as one means to stabilize the grid will IMO lead to even greater price increases for the latter.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#243

Post by n4r9 »

rob_c wrote: post #211
happymellon wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which basic human right did they take away? I've been able to go out, see anyone I've wanted to, write whatever I want. I can even be guaranteed to drink the tap water regardless of where I am in the country. If I accidentally wander off a path I won't get shot. If I have the wrong coloured skin it can still be dangerous to be in the wrong neighborhoods in the USA. American have a very strange perspective on "basic h…

For the record, I'm very much anti Tory, very much a promoter of vaccines which work and very much a promoter of being able to understand and question statistical analyses in a consistent way. People can place words in my mouth but they are not true. I'm an educated individual with a strong understanding of statistical analysis, scientific modelling and was asked to give advice of the validity of the tools used to co…

> The basic right of not getting arrested for traveling in the British countryside

Not sure this was a "basic human right" in England even before COVID. See e.g. https://www.mylawyer.co.uk/trespassing-a-A76076D34460/ and https://www.righttoroam.org.uk/ . All land is owned by someone, only around 8% of it is "open access", and the right to roam has only existed for 20 years.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#244

Post by danhor »

Schroedingersat wrote: post #232
danhor wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It doesn't map to any intuitive understanding, it does not communicate anything about how much heating could be done with that energy But that's exactly what it does. It's technically wrong, but communicates the understanding that you put 100% of electrical energy into it and get 250-450% of heating energy for your home out of it, as opposed to 100% with resistive heating. That some of the electrical energy comes o…

No it doesn't. "400%" gives you no indication that the upper bound is 800%. And failing to communicate that the heat comes from elsewhere is condescending and leads to misunderstandings. It also fails to communicate that it's harder to move the heat when it is colder. We have a perfectly valid term that does what yoh want without lying and without anti-education in the name of making it 'easier' which is coefficient…

> gives you no indication that the upper bound is 800%.

But it isn't? For e.g. outside sheds (heated to 7°C) the COP can theoretically go up to 27. For solar panels, the highest theoretical efficiency is well below 100% and the bound isn't communicated.

> It also fails to communicate that it's harder to move the heat when it is colder.

For heating that's less the case, but the efficiency of e.g. solar panels also varies depending on the temperature. That's not exclusive for heat pumps (although much more extreme there).

> You could even give it a different name to `void the scary word if you want, just don't call it efficiency because it's not.

Few people know what Coefficient of Performance means. If I give choose a new name, even less people will understand it. I try to either put efficiency in quotation marks or explain the concept, but efficiency maps (in the sense of energy I care about in and out) pretty well.

I think anti-education is too harsh, I'd describe it more as a white lie. It's the same as saying Mac & Linux systems don't get malware or saying in school maths that you can't take the square root of -1.

Wrong, but correct enough for understanding the point and allowing useful reasoning.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#245

Post by Latty »

robertlagrant wrote: post #238
Latty wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm talking about relatively minor levels of taxation. It's absurd to compare that to communism.

Taxing wealth is not relatively minor. It is the way to transfer ownership of companies to the government. Take most rich people; their wealth is generally in assets like land, or in investments. If you gradually move their company ownership and land ownership to the government, what do you get?

An incentive for the wealthy to split their companies up and sell them off, rather than creating giant megacorps with outsize impact on consumers and society?

Oh no, sounds terrible. /s

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#246

Post by rob_c »

n4r9 wrote: post #243
rob_c wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the record, I'm very much anti Tory, very much a promoter of vaccines which work and very much a promoter of being able to understand and question statistical analyses in a consistent way. People can place words in my mouth but they are not true. I'm an educated individual with a strong understanding of statistical analysis, scientific modelling and was asked to give advice of the validity of the tools used to co…

> The basic right of not getting arrested for traveling in the British countryside Not sure this was a "basic human right" in England even before COVID. See e.g. https://www.mylawyer.co.uk/trespassing-a-A76076D34460/ and https://www.righttoroam.org.uk/ . All land is owned by someone, only around 8% of it is "open access", and the right to roam has only existed for 20 years.

I won't argue with the global broad stroke of that definition at 1000ft not being correct.

But being legally threatened and forced to leave for visiting a publicly owned and publicly accessible UK national trust land in the middle of nowhere is stupid, yet this is what was regularly happening in 2020.

Basic right of way ability to go about ones life without state harassment was removed in countries that people pretend are full off freedom and virtue.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#247

Post by trashtester »

dogma1138 wrote: post #221
trashtester wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electricity, if the price is low enough, can fully replace almost every use case for natural gas. This will require some level of investment, of course, such as replacing gas ovens with electric ovens (or better, heat pumps) as well as replacing gas machinery with electric alternatives for most industries. There MAY be a few cases where alternatives are harder to find (where you need the chemistry of the gas rather t…

I suggest you look at how much natural gas is used by the chemical industry, in Germany ~25% of the natural gas consumed is consumed by non-energy related uses as in not heating, electricity production, smelting cooking etc, with ammonia and fertilizer production accounting for about 15% of total consumption alone. That isn’t a small percentage and those industries have an enormous knock on effect globally there is a…

In other words, Germany could cut at least 75% of their NG consumption, which is pretty significant.

This link describes how even the ammonia can be produced from hydrogen, which in turn can be produced from electricity (solar, nuclear, wind, take your pick):

https://www.freethink.com/environment/sustainable-fertilizer

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#248

Post by pydry »

sofixa wrote: post #234
armitron wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nobody forced Russia to invade a sovereign country (or to consider itself the rightful owner of those lands for that matter), that's entirely their fault. Alas, the world doesn't operate based on the moral principles you imply, but cold hard realpolitik. Actions have consequences in the great power game between nation states. > And it was mind bogglingly stupid, as we can see a few months in, with the massive losse…

> Alas, the world doesn't operate based on the moral principles you imply, but cold hard realpolitik. Actions have consequences in the great power game between nation states. If there's anything the Russian invasion of Ukraine isn't, it's realpolitik. Invading a country because "they aren't a real country and they should be ours" is as far as the cold practicality of realpolitik as possible. (Unless you choose to bel…

>Unless you choose to believe Russia's propaganda that it was all due to NATO's expansion, which even if true is even stupider - check Finland and Sweden which joined

A) Finland and Sweden havent yet joined and may not.

B) There are no ethnic Russians in Finland or Sweden in need of protection from paramilitaries sporting swastika tattoos.

C) No border disputes either.

D) No Russian military bases.

E) It's highly defensible terrain (see the winter war) unlike Ukraine.

F) Want to know where the Nazis launched an assault on Russia and where they almost won due to Russia's extreme strategic vulnerability? Hint : it wasnt the Finnish border.

Just because you dont understand the realpolitik doesnt mean it isnt realpolitik.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#249

Post by missedthecue »

trashtester wrote: post #247
dogma1138 wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suggest you look at how much natural gas is used by the chemical industry, in Germany ~25% of the natural gas consumed is consumed by non-energy related uses as in not heating, electricity production, smelting cooking etc, with ammonia and fertilizer production accounting for about 15% of total consumption alone. That isn’t a small percentage and those industries have an enormous knock on effect globally there is a…

In other words, Germany could cut at least 75% of their NG consumption, which is pretty significant. This link describes how even the ammonia can be produced from hydrogen, which in turn can be produced from electricity (solar, nuclear, wind, take your pick): https://www.freethink.com/environment/sustainable-fertilizer

Germany can do that maybe by 2040. Retrofitting every home in Germany to do away with gas heating and implement efficient electrical heating is easier said than done, to put it lightly. We're talking trillions in euros worth of investment and spending.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#250

Post by n4r9 »

rob_c wrote: post #246
n4r9 wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The basic right of not getting arrested for traveling in the British countryside Not sure this was a "basic human right" in England even before COVID. See e.g. https://www.mylawyer.co.uk/trespassing-a-A76076D34460/ and https://www.righttoroam.org.uk/ . All land is owned by someone, only around 8% of it is "open access", and the right to roam has only existed for 20 years.

I won't argue with the global broad stroke of that definition at 1000ft not being correct. But being legally threatened and forced to leave for visiting a publicly owned and publicly accessible UK national trust land in the middle of nowhere is stupid, yet this is what was regularly happening in 2020. Basic right of way ability to go about ones life without state harassment was removed in countries that people preten…

The policy does seem absurd hindsight. As does the whole "wash your hands for 20 seconds" and "we see no reason to record mask-wearing". I agree it's important to be cautious when deciding whether an emergency overrides the right to liberty. We have to bear in mind that in mid-2020 we had very little knowledge of the fatality, infectiousness, or transmission mechanism of the virus. It was huge, unknown risk to public health, there wasn't time to research the virus profile or to carefully construct fine-grained policies.
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