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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#241
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idk, does the job for me. Bought it to make my commute easier and it reduces the mental load required to drive in LA traffic.

autopilot != FSD I agree that autopilot by itself, currently is still pretty valuable. What I worry about (and seems to be confirmed) is that Musk misunderstands what’s possible with the current technology and will make outrageous demands from the team, they will fuck up trying to deliver, then the whole thing will become radioactive.

I could totally see that happening. We've definitely had updates that cause more problems than help.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because self-driving has a bunch of tricky edge cases and most of them will kill people. Problems with hundreds of important edge cases cannot be solved by simply throwing more training data at the problem; that's how you solve AI problems in a "dumb" manner, and it works for lots of problems (like recognizing dogs in images) -- but not for self-driving. To solve the self-driving problem we need "smart" A.I., which m…

I disagree with you. On the contrary, I think it can only be solved by throwing more data, but much more data that we have available now, to get first a smart AI that has common sense about the world (a world model). Then we can start trying to drive in it.

The counterexample to your point is that brand new 16-year-old human drivers seem to do a pretty good job of driving with very little training data. Yes, they do kill people and they're much worse drivers than 40-year-olds who have much more training data, but the fact that 16YOs kill as few people as they do with so little training data means some other mechanism than raw data quantity is important.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#243
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The incumbents will defend that market segment to their death indeed. Tesla is pulling a 30% gross margin on their EV's, while legacy auto looses money on their EV's. I don't see legacy auto being capable of refactoring their cars, manufacturing processes and business models fast enough to survive. The fall can cascade quickly, as the incumbents are stuffed with debt. When sales of ICE fall due to the growing EV segm…

> I don't see legacy auto being capable of refactoring their cars, manufacturing processes and business models fast enough to survive. My take is the opposite. Incumbents already have like 90% of what Tesla had or chose to build from scratch. EV's are not complicated at all compared to ICE, and incumbents have been refining their manufacturing process for decades in a brutally competitive industry. Unless Tesla can s…

I agree that the EV tech stack is easy. EV retro fits illustrate how simple EV's are. But that's not the part that matters. What matters is if you can make an outsized profit building and selling EV's. Legacy auto can't, Tesla can. Tesla is very vertically integrated so they can eek out extra margin that others can't. They also aren't inhibited by the existing dealer / service / financing model. So what I'm saying is if legacy auto wants to compete with Tesla, they have to refactor their entire business. And i don't see that happening. It will be interesting to see who is right in 5-10 years.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#244

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

> doesn’t seem capable of solving it, How so? If humans can master driving with 2 eyes looking forward, why would a car with plenty of cameras in all directions not have sufficient sensory input to master it? The problem is the software, not the sensors.

You use far more input when you drive than just your eyes. Suggesting otherwise is just obtuse.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…

Because self-driving has a bunch of tricky edge cases and most of them will kill people. Problems with hundreds of important edge cases cannot be solved by simply throwing more training data at the problem; that's how you solve AI problems in a "dumb" manner, and it works for lots of problems (like recognizing dogs in images) -- but not for self-driving. To solve the self-driving problem we need "smart" A.I., which m…

Introspectable neural nets is quite literally an oxymoron.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#246

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

If Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.

IMHO, the best cars in the world are still Toyotas - not the bleeding edge, mind you, just more reliability, overall "gets out of the way and does the job" in the most effective manner possible.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#247

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…

> Any reason why everyone seems to be stuck on this problem?

Because they're all trying visual- or line-of-sight methods only, I call this the "robo-human" fallacy in ML: trying to automate the processes that humans undergo so that you eventually have a drop-in replacement for a human. But that is a myopic and unimaginative approach because you could be re-assessing the system itself and eliminating inefficiencies that lead to poor performance.

In the autonomous vehicles space, there is massive potential for self-organizing swarm algorithms to control pelotons of cars, rather than individual cars with no intrinsic sense of the general flow of traffic. You wouldn't need a top-down "commander" style architecture, it could be designed so that cars only talk to their immediate neighbors and emergent patterns keep traffic flowing smooth and fast.

I have always been skeptical of the attempts to reduce the amount of information about the road that a car receives. (Moving from stereoscopic to monocular vision to save the cost of one camera seems just stupid.) But people who dream of "smart cities" really seem to see little more than The Jetsons in their mind, and it limits the scope of research to our detriment.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if we just, you know, walk a bit more instead? Or even cycle? I hear great things.

Clearly you live in a large city and find everything you want there.

That's literally the point of cities. Living outside of a city has its tradeoffs.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#249
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is funny because everything sort of comes back to trains. The very marginal benefits of laying road vs track more or less disappear when automation in play. Is is really worth maintaining the ability to go off road/track when you’re not even driving anymore?

Yes. You bring up a great point: With some infrastructure improvements we could have "virtual" trains. Vehicles would talk to each other on the highway and organize into closely-spaced convoys. Only the lead vehicle would need an active human driver; the rest could follow at extremely close distances--drafting off each other--and would not need a human driver (or their human drivers could go off-duty). The point of u…

> With some infrastructure improvements we could have "virtual" trains. Vehicles would talk to each other on the highway

I think the idea is to get rid of the roads and have the robo vehicles travel instead on tracks. That increases fuel efficiency and bypasses a lot of AI challenges.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we can tell for certain that time travel will never be invented because if it were to happen, then logically we’d already be experiencing people visiting us from the future.

Hello! It’s me, your visitor from 22 minutes into the future!

Hi! In a few other threads today people claimed that they / one can time the stock market.

Wanna start a trading venture with me? :-)

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