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Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne

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Re: Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which governments specifically? Also, you say that they failed to avoid panic but where have you seen some? From what I’ve seen some governments said a few incorrect or misleading things at a time where we had a lot of uncertainty and contradictory information. And then corrected once information became better. Overall western governments (I’m mostly familiar with Western Europe and the US) have been quite good at co…

Fauci, who can probably be seen as the US government, lies: https://slate.com/technology/2021/07/noble-lies-covid-fauci-... > have been quite good at communicating in the middle of a global pandemics Have they? It's a horrible back and forth, not based on any evidence. New rules are announced and rescinded a week later (e.g. Germany not ending quarantine of infected after all this week). During lockdowns, people were…

If you’re in Austria, don’t forget about the mandatory vaccination for the general population which was passed during Omicron and then the enforcement was suspended as the politicians finally accepted what everyone else already knew.

Re: Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne

#242

It is rather interesting to consider that many countries in Asia (China / Japan / Taiwan / Vietnam / Malaysia that I am aware of) happily ignored the WHO on masks and, with regards to Japan, actively promoted the airborne nature of COVID-19 early on. I remember seeing specials on NHK visualising the spread from a sneezing person in a room in March 2020. There were also a lot of helpful PSAs like the 3C model [0] and…

> Japan, actively promoted the airborne nature of COVID-19 early on Yes, but Japan is a leader in airborne disease prevention. I mean, if you visit Japan during a "normal" winter season you will observe two things: 1) Widespread mask-wearing in public spaces 2) Japanese not turning up to work to cough and splutter all over their colleagues Both the above never happened in the West. It was hard enough to get your aver…

Completely agree that Japan has done better. Putting some numbers on it:

  UK     21,461,556 cases, 313,247 cases/1M,  2,468 deaths/1M, 68,513,217 Pop
  Japan 6,832,377 cases,  54,313 cases/1M, 226 deaths/1M,  125,795,510 Pop
So its the deaths per million that is 1/10th (2,000+ vs 200+), while the cases per million are more like 1/6.

(data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

Re: Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne

#243
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fauci, who can probably be seen as the US government, lies: https://slate.com/technology/2021/07/noble-lies-covid-fauci-... > have been quite good at communicating in the middle of a global pandemics Have they? It's a horrible back and forth, not based on any evidence. New rules are announced and rescinded a week later (e.g. Germany not ending quarantine of infected after all this week). During lockdowns, people were…

If you’re in Austria, don’t forget about the mandatory vaccination for the general population which was passed during Omicron and then the enforcement was suspended as the politicians finally accepted what everyone else already knew.

The mandatory vaccination is the single biggest crime committed by the Austrian government against us in my lifetime.

Re: Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facts are carefully constructed human artifacts, not ideal platonic forms. Since they are usually formed by a consensus, or at least the appearance of a consensus, they are inherently political. The scientific method will tend to produce facts which are "eventually consistent" with reality, but since humans are involved, it's not a guarantee, especially in the short term.

Absolute skepticism works well in philosophy lectures, but it's not a good heuristic in real life. Most facts we find by scientific short term consensus are quite close to reality.

I’m not a skeptic but recognize Hume has a point, and if one doesn’t take epistemology seriously then one is merely a dogmatist. Dogmatism has become an acute problem in our institutions as the OP indicates, and surely you’ve heard of the replication crisis as well.

Re: Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne

#245
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am Chinese and I was physically in China early 2020, I disagree strongly with with the narrative that China "was not forthcoming". What I saw there on the ground was totally different from Western reporting and narratives. News about an "unknown decease" was right there on TV even as early as December 31[1]. On the same day, the news was already reported world-wide[2]. Later on, Western reporting said that China "l…

Interesting perspective from you, particularly as I'm at uni and my close friends circle is probably 75% Chinese. Two of those friends were back in China visiting in December 2019 and January 2020. One of them was in Shanghai and was there for only 2 days before he put the pieces together, realised something very bad was going on, and got the fuck out back to the country we're in. Let me be clear: I don't think that…

I agree with you that mistakes have been made, both on the local level and on the national level. I also agree that there were failures to protect the interests of citizen — a thing which happens time to time.

But I strongly disagree with the notions that:

1. They "covered it up".

2. COVID is "wholly China's fault".

3. China is a jingoistic, self-obsessed, morally bankrupt country.

4. China lies and will continue to lie and cannot be trusted on anything.

5. The entire system is wholly corrupt, beyond saving, and deserves to be condemn in full.

6. China is militaristically aggressive and that "the rest of the world" sees China that way.

These notions are not based on facts. In fact, I assert that they are based on misrepresentations (i.e. anti-China propaganda), prejudice (one already believed that China is bad, so one is inclined to believe stories/rumors that confirm this regardless of their truth), ignorance (the "rest of the world" is bigger than the west), and sinophobia (fear of the Other; applying a different and unrealistic standard on China).

By and large, the Chinese population does not think that way about China at all. A 14-year long study by Harvard has found that 93% of Chinese are satisfied with the central government.[1] A later study, this time by York University, has found that satisfaction has gone up to a staggering 98%.[2] Neither of them used Chinese government data. All my family, both in the Netherlands as well as in China, are pretty satisfied with China even if everybody acknowledges there are problems (and which place don't have problems?). How can this be possible in a "shithole" that suppresses and abuses its citizen? The answer: China isn't a "shithole", nor are its citizens "supressed and abused". My Chinese wife is puzzled: "why do foreigners think China is hell?" China is just a country that does things differently and that has its own strengths and problems. Tendencies to project that beyond what it is, and into a world-threatening hellhole, is based on prejudice and sinophobia.

To those wondering what I say what I say: I recognize that China has problems and shortcomings. It would be foolish to deny that (and indeed, those who deny that are ultranationalists, that I do not approve). But when you condemn China's system wholesale, that's where you lose my support, and that's where you push me to the other side.

[1] https://ash.harvard.edu/files/ash/files/final_policy_brief_7...

[2] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350140842_Chinese_C...

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Regarding sinophobia, let's just say that I find these excerpts from your posts... highly curious, if not dishonest.

> It's also curious that global pandemics going back to the Black Death all seem to emanate from China.

Wait a minute, so this is not just about CCP?

Also: China has always had a huge population, so even based on simple probability there's a lot of things that come out of China.

> Maybe the Chinese should just stop eating bats, anteaters, and other truly wild animals saturated with known pathogens?

Oh so this is again not just about the CCP?

And let me tell you that by and large Chinese don't eat "bats, anteaters, and other truly wild animals saturated with known pathogens". But with so many people there's always a village somewhere with such practice.

Also don't forget that hygiene is something that develops over time as a country becomes more developed. China was comparable to Africa just a few decades ago. This low level of development was caused by imperalism so I find it highly disingenuous to accuse China of low hygiene.

You wonder why I'm not anti-CCP? 30 years ago when I left China, my hometown was a big mud pool with dirty streets and run-down buildings. We just came out of a period with insufficient food. Nobody owned a car, few people owned a TV or phone. Everybody had to work their ass off. In 30 years, all of that has changed. This is literally the best 30 years in the past 3000 years, and it's thanks to the cooperation between the citizens and government — neither could have achieved this in vacuum. The dirty markets of my childhood are mostly gone and overall hygiene has become much better.

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Regarding the 6 points I listed above, I'll address that separately in a separate comment.

Re: Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne

#246
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am Chinese and I was physically in China early 2020, I disagree strongly with with the narrative that China "was not forthcoming". What I saw there on the ground was totally different from Western reporting and narratives. News about an "unknown decease" was right there on TV even as early as December 31[1]. On the same day, the news was already reported world-wide[2]. Later on, Western reporting said that China "l…

Interesting perspective from you, particularly as I'm at uni and my close friends circle is probably 75% Chinese. Two of those friends were back in China visiting in December 2019 and January 2020. One of them was in Shanghai and was there for only 2 days before he put the pieces together, realised something very bad was going on, and got the fuck out back to the country we're in. Let me be clear: I don't think that…

This is a follow-up comment that addresses the 6 points I mentioned in my other comment.

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Re point 1: you keep saying they "covered it up" but based on what evidence? The first doctor who discovered it, Zhang Jixian, diagnosed an unknown pneunomia on Dec 27. By Dec 31 the case had been escalated to WHO. Where is the room for "covering up"?

Yes Wuhan officials probably were incentivized to not raise a big fuss until more about the virus is known. They probably erred too much on the optimistic side. But being too optimistic in the face of an unknown virus is still a far cry from "covering up" which would mean intend to lie in the face of clear evidence. Where is your evidence that that's what happened?

Where is the "misleading WHO"? The only thing I could think of was that tweet from the WHO saying that they "found no clear evidence of transmission", but that's not at all the same as "it's not transmissible". Now one would be correct in saying that that's too vaguely worded. So literally the next day they clarified that "transmission is still possible"[1].

Thus, I conclude that continued assertions that "they covered it up" is based on prejudice and the tendency to blame China, not based on actual facts.

[1] https://www.euronews.com/2020/01/15/china-says-it-s-possible...

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Re point 2: why is COVID "wholly China's fault" when western countries failed to take precautions even 1 month after the Wuhan lockdown? 1 month after Wuhan I remembered that Alglophone media still called it "a flu", and that the Dutch prime minister didn't take the issue seriously at all. Yeah just wash your hands and sneeze in your elbow, no need for further precautions. A week later he had to eat his own words. How is this China's fault? Is locking down a megacity not enough of a warning?

This also brings us back to point 1. We can now say that Wuhan officials were wrong to have been too optimistic. But by the time Wuhan locked down, it should have been safe to say that one must err on the side of caution instead. But western countries didn't do that: they were still too optimistic. Why is Wuhan officials — who had little knowledge of the virus — being optimistic, a sign of a wholly corrupt regime that's 100% to blame for COVID, while western countries who were too optimistic despite massive warning not wholly corrupt and blameable?

I assert that this double standard is based on prejudice and sinophobia.

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Re point 4 and 5: where are the lies? What exactly did they lie about? You keep saying that they lie but where is the evidence? Why are you so convinced that they must lie even in the absence of such evidence? The Chinese public certainly doesn't think that the whole system and whole regime systematically lies (corruption here and there exist, as with anywhere else in the world).

In the absence of evidence about lying, I assert that the iron-clad belief that they must lie is based on prejudice and sinophobia.

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Re point 6: "military aggression" is propaganda, not based on facts.

China hasn't shot a bullet over its borders in 40 years. China still has border disputes, but those disputes are neither recent, nor did they arise out of military aggressiveness, nor are they purely a China problem.

All desputes are a legacy of the colonial period when the British drew lines all over Asia that neighboring countries later didn't agree on. All disputes that the People's Republic has and had, were inherited in 1949 from its predecessor state — none of the disputes are recent.

All land border issues, with the exception of India, have been resolved. The Indian dispute hasn't been resolved not because China is aggressive: in late 80s, China offered a very common-sense diplomatic solution, namely turning the status quo (territories that are de-facto controlled by each party) into official territory. India said no because they promised their public that all territory belonged to them.[2]

W.r.t. China's response to Russia: this is not a case of "the world unites against Russia and only China fails to condemn Russia, therefore China is complicit", as the media wants to paint. Pretty much only the west and its traditional allies like Japan, have voted in the UN to condemn Russia. Many other countries besides China have abstained, including India, most of the ASEAN countries, and many African states.[3][4] To single out China as being a sole "Russia enabler" is pretty disingenuous. But I will also add that I don't know all that much about Russia or China-Russia relationships so this is all I will say about this matter.

The South China Sea dispute is not a case of "China is aggressive against all other countries in the region and all others are asking for help against China". It's a case of "everybody in that region has disputes with everybody else". Vietnam and Taiwan have disputes with each other[5]. Vietnam and and Malaysia have disputes with each other[7].

China started building islands as a response to US military aggression (Pivot to Asia). China didn't want to do this and offered to deescalated together with the US, US said no, so China said "have it your way". Vietnam has been bulding islands in the SCS since the late 70s[6], so China is pretty late to that game.

It's definitely not a case of "countries unite against Chinese aggression". When AUKUS was formed, Malaysia expressed grave concern about AUKUS, going as far as planning consultations with China[8]. Singapore started holding navy drills with China[9]. ASEAN countries upgraded strategic ties with China.[10]

The 2022 ASEAN-US summit was postponed indefinitely.[11] There is indeed military aggression in that area, but it's not China. The US tried painting China as an aggressor, not only in SCS but also re Russia. But ASEAN countries don't see it that way, and re Russia they perceive China as neutral.

One thing I've learned in the past 2 years following geopolitics is that when people say "the world" or "the international community", they mean "the west and its allies like Japan". If you actually look at the world map and see what countries outside that clique think, you get a very different picture.

[2] Asian Peace Talks with Kishore Mahbubani E6: India's Relations with China and Pakistan: interview with Professor Kanti Bajpai, the foremost expert on India-China-Pakistan relations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoR0nQjvnkU&t=21m30s (21:30)

[3] Signatories to UN letter criticizing Russia's invasion of Ukraine: https://www.axios.com/un-security-council-vote-condemn-russi...

[4] Why African Countries Had Different Views on the UNGA Ukraine Resolution, and Why This Matters: https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-african-countries-had-diff...

[5] https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-asks-taiwan-to-sto...

[6] https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3156306/south-c...

[7] https://www.voanews.com/a/east-asia-pacific_how-vietnam-mala...

[8] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3149713/mal...

[9] https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234992.shtml

[10] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20211028-asean-summit-sout...

[11] https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/25/bidens-summit-with-...

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In conclusion, I still assert that the notion that China is a militaristic hellhole that abuses its own citizens, is not based on fact, but on misrepresentations (i.e. anti-China propaganda), prejudice (one already believed that China is bad, so one is inclined to believe stories/rumors that confirm this regardless of their truth), ignorance (the "rest of the world" is bigger than the west), and sinophobia (fear of the Other; applying a different and unrealistic standard on China).

Re: Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne

#247
post #183

Governments who "didn't want to create a panic" just flat-out lied. They broke the public trust and did incalculable, permanent damage to societies' ability to react to crises in the future. It was self-serving, short-sighted, and frankly, the worst possible outcome. They clearly did not avoid a panic, did not avoid massive consequences, but, in the long run, deliberately injected distrust, hatred, and fear, deepenin…

Which governments specifically? Also, you say that they failed to avoid panic but where have you seen some? From what I’ve seen some governments said a few incorrect or misleading things at a time where we had a lot of uncertainty and contradictory information. And then corrected once information became better. Overall western governments (I’m mostly familiar with Western Europe and the US) have been quite good at co…

Besides what a sibling comment said, in Germany the local (~county) governments gathered sloppy statistics (put people with unknown vaccination status in the unvaccinated column) and then justified that to restrict the freedom of movement of the unvaccinated, criticize them and make them into social pariahs. They’ve said they’re sorry though.

Corona has given Western governments a taste of power and they’ve used that to silence critics and restrict civil liberties - often based on faulty data.

Re: Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which governments specifically? Also, you say that they failed to avoid panic but where have you seen some? From what I’ve seen some governments said a few incorrect or misleading things at a time where we had a lot of uncertainty and contradictory information. And then corrected once information became better. Overall western governments (I’m mostly familiar with Western Europe and the US) have been quite good at co…

> Which governments specifically? Erm, the US and UK ? Their handling has been dire. We all remember Boris Johnson going on TV and when asked about the images coming out of Italy said "Well, its nothing to worry about, you'll have to just take it on the chin". Every man and his dog could see the slow car-crash coming. First China, then Asia, then Western Europe... the statistics and TV coverage was all there for ever…

> Erm, the US and UK ? Their handling has been dire.

Strange how the idea the UK mishandled the crisis persists, but at least one report [1] suggests otherwise, maybe the UK could have done better but certainly didn't do much worse than it's peers:

United Kingdom excess mortality per 100000 people due to Covid: 128 (ratio of actual excess deaths compared to reported: 0.97) France excess mortality per 100000 people due to Covid: 124 (ratio of actual excess deaths compared to reported: 1.28)

Spain excess mortality per 100000 people due to Covid: 186 (ratio of actual excess deaths compared to reported: 1.64)

Italy excess mortality per 100000 people due to Covid: 227 (ratio of actual excess deaths compared to reported: 1.89)

Poland excess mortality per 100000 people due to Covid: 297 (ratio of actual excess deaths compared to reported: 2.20)

1. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821... (PDF)

Re: Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facts are carefully constructed human artifacts, not ideal platonic forms. Since they are usually formed by a consensus, or at least the appearance of a consensus, they are inherently political. The scientific method will tend to produce facts which are "eventually consistent" with reality, but since humans are involved, it's not a guarantee, especially in the short term.

No, facts are true statements. We don't know which statements about this collectively observed reality are facts. Coming up with new statements about reality and figuring out how likely it is that they are facts is the point of science.

Sure, I’ll concede that definition. But I’m referring to truth claims presented as facts.

Re: Why the WHO took two years to say Covid is airborne

#250
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if this has been tested, but I'd venture a guess that this has something to do with how one flip flops. Exhibit A: "This fact X is correct and we as institution C Org have institutional knowledge that makes us right and anything otherwise wrong". Changing this later to "This fact Y (that people were asking about, shh) is true. We won't mention that it contradicts X that much. We won't say we were wrong.…

> Exhibit A: "This fact X is correct and we as institution C Org have institutional knowledge that makes us right and anything otherwise wrong". I've noticed a pattern where people will take this as their default assumption, and even selectively read evidence to the contrary in order to maintain that assumption. For example, a while ago on HN[1], someone posted this link[2] about a CDC announcement titled " CDC direc…

That is a valid and excellent point. Nuance is often discarded in favour of stirring trouble and it is very frustrating.
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