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Are cryptocurrencies to blame for high GPU prices?

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Re: Are cryptocurrencies to blame for high GPU prices?

#241
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If nvidia straight up just stopped selling any cards, declined all their client/customer base, and just put 100% of their global output to mining cryptocurrencies, I think it's a good chance nvidia can do a 50%+1 attack on both bitcoin and ethereum at the same time. Once they successfully do the attack, they can take over the blockchains and allocate all cryptocurrencies to themselves, cash out, and it'd probably reg…

The part where you say "cash out" is hilarious. There is no cash in it. You only get to keep the bits. Any cash comes from buyers and if there is any attack all the buyers are scared away.

This is the terrifying thing about a bug in one of these systems or some other kind of attack. The whole network can suddenly drop to zero in the blink of an eye.

Re: Are cryptocurrencies to blame for high GPU prices?

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You haven't been able to GPU mine bitcoin in like a decade, every miner uses dedicated ASICs specifically for mining btc. It's been impossible to compete without ASICs for a very long time.

Nvidia can design and manufacture asics too you know. Likely they have enough expertise to revolutionize the asic market as you know it, using the 3nm process at tsmc. Since Bitmain asics are currently being made at around 16nm nodes, using 3nm process that Nvidia has access to - think about that for a bit.

Please bear in mind that 3nm is an "alpha" - a multiplier characterizing the process. If you took your time and find out difference between processes with different "alphas" you will find that transistor density is nowhere near what difference in "alphas" would suggest.

If I remember correctly, the difference in transistor density improves as 1/alpha whereas area of transistors, if everything gets shrunk with alpha decrease, should decrease as square of 1/alpha. I.e., if alpha differs two times, there should be 4 times more shrunk transistors whereas practice shows only 2 (and often less) more shrunk transistors.

This is because you cannot make transistors too small in every dimension, they will leak.

So the difference between 3nm and 16nm will be less than five times. Not 25 times as difference between these parameters would suggest.

The difference in getting masks and first prototype should be quite substantial in terms of upfront payments and time-to-production.

I remember that 25 square millimeters proof of concept in 180nm process needed $50K of money and half an year of delay. The 35nm (5 times less) prototype of the same area would cost about $500K and more than half an year delay. The difference between 16nm and 3nm is about the same, I can expect several millions of dollars of upfront cost of small chip and year long delay before prototype arrives for 3nm process.

These Bitmain guys should be assumed to be not stupid and they most probably have access to latest processes after second prototype. Yet they choose 16nm - we must ask ourselves "why?" and Nvidia should too.

As a matter of fact, Nvidia had its share of problems with tiny processes in past.

Re: Are cryptocurrencies to blame for high GPU prices?

#243
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The part where you say "cash out" is hilarious. There is no cash in it. You only get to keep the bits. Any cash comes from buyers and if there is any attack all the buyers are scared away.

This is the terrifying thing about a bug in one of these systems or some other kind of attack. The whole network can suddenly drop to zero in the blink of an eye.

OMG it should be illegal.

Re: Are cryptocurrencies to blame for high GPU prices?

#245
post #88

And what's to blame for Bitcoin's high price? A broken fiat monetary system. I can't believe some people still think that Bitcoin is more speculative than major tech stocks. Facebook, Twitter, Google, Uber, Snapchat... All propped up by money printing. I think if we ran a simulation using hard (non-fiat) money, the net losses of these big tech companies would be even more significant than Bitcoin's losses on electric…

And what's to blame for the tulips high price? A broken fiat monetary system. The reason why tulips are so successful and anti-fragile is that they can be grown everywhere. By the way, if an activity like mining is only profitable because of money printing (depressing interest rates), given the world has been in zero to negative interest rates, this means the activity is not productive.

Some people have argued that tulip mania was driven by monetary policy. When discussing supply and demand, it's not only about supply and demand of the goods or services, it's also about supply and demand of the currency which those goods and services trade against. Changes in the supply of a currency can affect prices in unpredictable ways; inflation is not evenly distributed.

Re: Are cryptocurrencies to blame for high GPU prices?

#246
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The part where you say "cash out" is hilarious. There is no cash in it. You only get to keep the bits. Any cash comes from buyers and if there is any attack all the buyers are scared away.

This is the terrifying thing about a bug in one of these systems or some other kind of attack. The whole network can suddenly drop to zero in the blink of an eye.

Hence the value of a stabler currency such as USD or GBP versus more volatile currencies. It is an implicit judgment on how much trust there is in the system that uses them.

Re: Are cryptocurrencies to blame for high GPU prices?

#247
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If nvidia straight up just stopped selling any cards, declined all their client/customer base, and just put 100% of their global output to mining cryptocurrencies, I think it's a good chance nvidia can do a 50%+1 attack on both bitcoin and ethereum at the same time. Once they successfully do the attack, they can take over the blockchains and allocate all cryptocurrencies to themselves, cash out, and it'd probably reg…

The part where you say "cash out" is hilarious. There is no cash in it. You only get to keep the bits. Any cash comes from buyers and if there is any attack all the buyers are scared away.

> Any cash comes from buyers and if there is any attack all the buyers are scared away.

I used to assume that, but there are coins which have been attacked successfully before and people still use them anyway. I don't attempt to explain the logic there :P

Re: Are cryptocurrencies to blame for high GPU prices?

#248

One word: yes. https://www.hardwaretimes.com/gpu-mining-farm-w-over-4000-ge... https://hothardware.com/news/a-look-inside-a-massive-rtx-307... https://www.tomshardware.com/news/gpu-shortages-worsen-crypt... And energy prices, of course. More demand = higher prices. Also keep in mind that cryptocurrencies become harder to mine with time, therefore the pursuit of more powerful hardware and more energy isn't going to st…

At least on the ethereum side they are moving to a Proof of Stake system which doesn't require the insane hardware and energy that Proof of Work consensus requires. So there will be some relief on the horizon.

Also, I expect over time that fewer cryptos will use Proof of Work. Unless you're Bitcoin/Ethereum, proof of work chains get attacked all the time. Look at Ethereum Classic.

Re: Are cryptocurrencies to blame for high GPU prices?

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NVIDIA would reduce demand, but for the FAANG companies it's a neutral proposition, aside from the cost of doing the work to crash the currency. And there's plenty of reasons to want to do so: Proof-of-work currencies are what make ransomware payments possible, and there's a large daily CO2 cost for proof of work currencies. The question is simply when is the cost of the externalities greater than the cost of acting?

Am I missing something? Why would NVIDIA want to reduce demand for their graphic cards?

They have done things like come up with a mining only SKU, apparently partially because they are annoyed that people aren't using their cards for their intended purpose. Probably, while a sale is a sale, they see the crypto market as flakier and would rather keep their gaming reputation intact.

Re: Are cryptocurrencies to blame for high GPU prices?

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your answer does not conform to the common model. Let's make it harder to read instead of having a frank discussion.

My problem with it is not the content, it's the totalizing, evangelical approach. In tone it's about a half-step from the goggle-eyed people who want to talk about "international bankers" and how they control everything. I have never had a good conversation with anybody who starts out like that, because they are in the grip of a strongly self-reinforcing worldview.

People often say "follow the money, look at the incentives..." Yet those same people keep neglecting the system which produces the mother of all incentives. It's easy to see how heavily money-oriented the average person is nowadays. IMO, the way the economy works is that we're just like ants following a trail of breadcrumbs and the reserve banks decide which direction to toss all the new breadcrumbs...
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