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Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

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Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#241
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we are the Romans. We can make swords and bread! We'll do great in WWIII!

That's ridiculous. We're churning out new ideas in biotech, medicine, media, finance, automobiles, airplanes, batteries, some solar stuff, and on and on. We have a huge, dynamic economy that does a lot of things really well. We've uncovered some major issues in the last two years but we've done better I think than one might have expected under the circumstances. I think in particular the rapid development and product…

We are actually getting quite behind on some of that stuff that you mentioned. Boeing is a shell of it's former self, having been hollowed out by the financial types, and can't launch a new aircraft without killing hundreds or a new spacecraft without an order of magnitude more time and money vs SpaceX. China absolutely leads the world in solar cell production, and of course most critical microchip production is offshore.

WWII was won largely on American manufacturing prowess. As the war started in Europe, we had a grand total of 39 tanks. But American manufacturing might was focused on the war effort. Liberty ships launched at a rate of two every three days. 25-35K tanks rolled off the US assembly lines every year, while the Germans could produce only 3K, 5K, 11K, and 18K in 1941-44, respectively. Etc., etc, etc.

However, right now, the US produces barely any microchips, which are pretty much critical to every technology.

Worse yet, having a shortage of conventional technology, such as smart weapons shortens the time to the point where the choice becomes to escalate to nukes or lose.

But thank you for providing a fine example of the "it'll be fine" sort of myopia that brought us to this mess -- it always feels nice to look at our advantages and think everything else is a tail risk. But when the tail risk happens, it's over.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#242
post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That some things in history took the span of multiple generations to finish was quite the revelation to me. The Cologne Cathedral took over 600 years to finish. As another example, this amusing video [1] tells the story of how King Louis XIV wanted a map of the entirety of his kingdom from Cassini, and how it was apparently Cassini's great grandson (4 generations over 120 years) who finally concluded the project. For…

Oh yes! Our cities and mega-structures, including things like roads and fields. Or more broadly, our terraforming of the planet. When you look at time lapse videos of human developments it looks pretty similar to watching swarm insects construct big structures over long periods. We started it a long time ago and it sped up a lot over the last few centuries, and it's still going on. No need to look at individual piece…

Yeah, but those things are always in flux, made of many individual parts that may often been seen in isolation (I don't think many people except for city planers know which particular "project" a given set of roads belongs to), and have no definitive "completion".

For the space station for example, I'd consider it "completed" the moment it was taken into operation, the rest is building upon it and maintaining. Cathedrals are single objects, though of course I don't know how they were built, and for how many hundred years they may have seemed "complete enough" to the untrained eye.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#243
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we are the Romans. We can make swords and bread! We'll do great in WWIII!

Because we hit max depth, I'll respond to your bizarre fever dream about the Millennium Challenge and some hypothetical war with China. The only things that matters in a war between nuclear states is that both sides view it as too terrible to entertain. Nuclear subs mean that the US always has the option to deal a killing blow even if everything else fails. And if it comes to that, nothing else matters anyway, so why…

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Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#244
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we are the Romans. We can make swords and bread! We'll do great in WWIII!

Because we hit max depth, I'll respond to your bizarre fever dream about the Millennium Challenge and some hypothetical war with China. The only things that matters in a war between nuclear states is that both sides view it as too terrible to entertain. Nuclear subs mean that the US always has the option to deal a killing blow even if everything else fails. And if it comes to that, nothing else matters anyway, so why…

>>...at the end of the day there's relatively little reason for us to have a major conflict.

...at the end of today. today, there is not, but autocratic regimes create their own reasons to have major conflicts. They are expansionist, and will keep at it until stopped. Moreover, the longer they are allowed to engage in bad behavior, the larger the conflict that will be required to fix the problem. CCP already has a long history with expansionist actions in Tibet, HK, Taiwan, the 9-dash line, is running concentration camps for Uyghurs, and working it's Belt and Road plan to capture poorer nations in debt traps. Yet their rhetoric is all about how the US is being the aggressor when it practices Freedom Of Navigation exercises in international waters, or is "interfering in internal affairs" by working w/Taiwan.

They will not let these topics go until they win, and they will always find new excuses to expand. Their excuses for current expansion are 100% bullsh*t, why would you expect them to not make new ones when convenient? It's their standard mode of operating.

If you think this will somehow end by itself, you make many wrong assumptions about how autocracies work, or you know something that no one else does about how to stop this, and should share it in the interest of world peace.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Romans had bloomery-made wrought iron only, which was a hand-made process of uneven quality, and made only in small batches. The role of carbon (and how to introduce it) was only vaguely known, so quality would vary. It would be quite difficult to make a boiler with bloomery iron. The blast furnace only showed up around 1100. The Romans could certainly have made a Newcomen-style low-pressure steam engine; the first b…

Couldn't there be ceramic boilers? Roman steam-punk legions of amfora-powered siege weapons ... > Perhaps they would have found employment in the Roman world in the same place they did historically: de-watering mines. It could be that the coincidence of coal mining and coal being good steam power source was what was required to kickstart it.

Ceramic (and masonry) aren't great in tension, which is the main mode for boilers. And its brittle, so it'll go from okay to exploding pretty fast. So not a great engineering choice. But, I suppose, you can use a lot of it, so you could probably make it work. Won't be terribly portable, though. And don't ask me to stand next to it.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#246
post #141
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower "No plan survives the first shot of the battle". So, sure, the plans will likely not survive in any detail even a decade from now. But the fact that they are making plans, attempting to understand the considerations of those future generations, understand what strategic goals need to be worked o…

> And notice that the US is not now trying to return manufacturing home because of long-term plans, but because the people noticed that the bargain of cheap goods from China doesn't mean much when you exported the job Most of those jobs outside of a few narrow categories were lost to automation. We make more steel, aircrafts, and cars than ever but with far fewer people. China's history of planning has led to tons of…

>>Most of those jobs outside of a few narrow categories were lost to automation.

Of course automation plays a part, but it is nothing like the whole story. China now has far greater capabilities to make critical components from chips to solar panels than is located here. Look what happens to our supply chain when supply is just reduced a bit. What do you think would happen to our economy in a conflict?

>>China's history of planning has led to tons of misallocation of resources, and I'm not sure I'd want to emulate that.

Of course we wouldn't want to emulate that; that's a strawman argument.

But to use that argument to avoid planning altogether is foolish. And yes, resources will APPEAR to be wasted. Keeping more than minimal capabilities immediately at hand is "inefficient".

This is the same as exercising and eating right to stay in good physical condition - no one needs to be able to lift weight and run fast for 99.99% of modern jobs. Yet it is a good idea for many reasons. By your argument, why bother to save for emergencies or tough times? That's inefficient - you should enjoy your full income right now - heck, go into debt too!. Also by your argument, we shouldn't plan to avoid technical debt - that's inefficient waste of programmer time - just write the first thing that comes to mind to deploy the feature.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#247
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is absolutely a special–purpose computer. Of course it’s not a general–purpose programmable computer such as the ones we use today, but it is still a computer.

What is your dictionary definition of computer then? Is a sundial a computer because it tells the time? Is an abacus, or a Genaille–Lucas ruler, a computer?

A special–purpose computer is any device which computes an answer to a specific question given some input or initial conditions. An abacus or slide rule is not a computer because they are not designed for a specific question or problem (but they can of course be an aid to computation).

With the Antikythera mechanism, the operator sets the machine to the current date, and then turns the crank to advance the date. The dials on the face would continuously show the positions of several planets, the phase of the moon, the eclipses, and possibly one or two other things.

Charles Babbage’s Difference Engine computed the values of polynomials. The operator would set the coefficients of the polynomial, then turn the crank to compute successive values of that polynomial for successive values of X. He never finished it though.

The firing computer on a WWII destroyer computed the correct elevation of the guns, based on inputs that encoded the position and velocity of the ship, the position and velocity of the target, and several other variables. https://youtu.be/gwf5mAlI7Ug?t=45

General–purpose computers take as input a _program_, and the program specifies the problem to be solved. You could load a program for computing eclipses one minute, and the next minute load a program for computing polynomials or firing solutions, or load one to check your email. The hardware hasn’t changed, only the program and inputs have changed.

Contrast that with the Difference Engine: to make the difference engine compute eclipses or firing solutions, you would have to swap out all of the gears and shafts, and build a different frame to hold them all. It would be turned into a completely different machine.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#248
post #231
post #67

I think we tend to underestimate what ancient technology could produce because we forget that in ancient times they often operated on longer timescales than we do. With our technology for example we could make all the parts for the Antikythera mechanism in a short time. The ancient Greeks definitely had no technology that would have allowed them to do that, so we see the existence of the Antikythera mechanism as a gr…

That some things in history took the span of multiple generations to finish was quite the revelation to me. The Cologne Cathedral took over 600 years to finish. As another example, this amusing video [1] tells the story of how King Louis XIV wanted a map of the entirety of his kingdom from Cassini, and how it was apparently Cassini's great grandson (4 generations over 120 years) who finally concluded the project. For…

> Do we still have anything like this?

https://www.npr.org/2021/10/26/1048358753/if-nasa-green-ligh...

> "We do need to learn how to conduct missions over these very long timescales if we are ever going to come close to achieving any of the aspirations of interstellar exploration that are so often posed in the popular media," she says.

> To help understand how to deal with the intergenerational nature of this proposed mission, the research team reached out to Janet Vertesi, a sociologist with Princeton University who has studied the organizational aspects of other projects in space.

> ...

> She's led discussions with the researchers to help them sort through this. Astronomer Carey Lisse, who is working on the interstellar probe study, said these sessions were "very blunt and made us think a lot."

> He's done the math. "I will be 75 in 2036 when we launch. That means that I know I'm not going to be on this mission probably for more than 10 years after launch," says Lisse, adding that the need for handovers is just a fact. "This isn't just theory or just talk. It's going to happen multiple times, probably two or three times at least."

> ...

> Ocker, who doesn't even have a Ph.D. yet, points out that she'll be late in her career by the time this probe reaches interstellar space, if NASA decides to support it and if it launches in the 2030s. "I'm very hopeful that this mission will happen. I really hope it does, in which case I'll be very excited to use the data when it does eventually come down," she says.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#249
post #11

Jonathan Blow's talk 'Preventing the Collapse of Civilization' goes into detail about how technology can regress, with the Mechanism being one example. This kind of thing is far more common than we think, most would be surprised to learn that Ancient Greece had writing for about 600 years before forgetting it. There was no writing in Greece for over 400 years, until they adopted the Phoenician alphabet around 730 BC.…

Also, I, pencil comes to mind. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I,_Pencil

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#250
post #67

I think we tend to underestimate what ancient technology could produce because we forget that in ancient times they often operated on longer timescales than we do. With our technology for example we could make all the parts for the Antikythera mechanism in a short time. The ancient Greeks definitely had no technology that would have allowed them to do that, so we see the existence of the Antikythera mechanism as a gr…

I agree. To me, the ancient Greeks were an extremely advanced civilization and we don't often comprehend quite how rich their intellectual culture was.

It turns out that Archimedes had actually discovered some of the foundational principles of integral calculus centuries before Newton or Leibniz even considered it [1]. In fact, Eudoxus — another Greek mathematician — had created a "method of exhaustion" which was essentially an informal, geometric method for computing limits (though he tried to make it as rigorous as possible) [2]. And if they don't impress you, then Euclid on his own is an extraordinary mathematician. The Elements is a modern mathematical marvel, with all of its theorems on foundational geometry and algebra stemming from 5 axioms.

Astronomy was a critical part of many ancient cultures, from the Aztecs to the Indians (and of course, the Greeks). After some pondering, it makes sense why they would invest so much time, energy, and innovative zeal into creating a device as intricate as the Antikythera. I wonder how many other inventions and revolutionary ideas created by ancient cultures have been lost to time.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Method_of_Mechanical_Theor...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Method_of_exhaustion

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