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Will real estate ever be normal again?

nytimes.com

241–250 of 620 posts

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#241

The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…

It isn't actually clear if housing is driving inflation or responding to it. Lower mortgage rates can goose prices and demand a bit but can't come close to accounting for current pricing levels. Even at 0% down payments are not trivial... and fed backed mortgage support tops out around the 600-800k mark depending on market.

You can try to fight the market, complain about the market, or position yourself to take advantage of it (using the best info available at the time). When everyone was doom-saying the Fed in 2009 and complaining that everything was fake valuation, a new crash was coming soon, etc. I got fed up and ignored them. Piled my retirement account into stocks. That has paid off quite well.

Also if you find an opportunity you believe in make a bet. I bet $7k on Tesla's IPO. Last week I sold less than half my holdings for $100,000 and plan to keep the remainder. Lots of people had negative things to say but I took a closer look and put my nickel down. Years ago after Apple hit me 700 it fell by around half. I bought the dips at 450, 400, 350, etc. That also did extremely well for me.

Find opportunities and make moves. Fighting the fed and the market means you'll miss huge upside - often so much upside that even when your negative prediction eventually comes true you'd have been better off holding through the downturn when all is said and done.

> All I can do at this point is raise my fist to the sky and say fuck the fed, fuck the financial system, fuck the greedy rich, fuck BlackRock, and fuck you.

Polish your resume, practice stupid useless whiteboard problems, move to the Bay Area, and work for a FAANG company. Keep the same lifestyle you have now. If you work moderately harder than average you can easily have $2m cash in the bank within 10 years or less - even after paying Bay Area cost of living.

Then start writing $20k checks to your house rep's re-election campaign. Guess what? They'll take your calls. Write $50-100k checks and your senator will too. It is surprisingly cheap (in the grand scheme of things) to buy access to political power. That's how the current system got where it is: those hedge fund managers have been writing campaign checks since they were junior associates at a big bank. As a result Congress hears from them and cares about their concerns more than the average rabble.

Anyone in Congress who doesn't do that and isn't independently wealthy either fails to get re-elected (no money to spend on events, travel, ads, ground game) or has no actual power because the party won't give them committee assignments since they aren't bringing any money in for the party's own election efforts (this is how parties enforce discipline).

Unlike most working Americans it is within the grasp of many HN readers to do this sort of thing and make an actual difference. Do you care enough to move? To change jobs?

Full disclosure: I'm just now in a position to start writing checks so I'll let you know how it works out in 10 years.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the real problem was always zoning, wouldn't dense cities like NYC and Shanghai be cheaper than average, not way over average? It's not about supply by itself, it's supply vs demand. Big cities have big populations and economies, which means a lot of demand. But as far as zoning goes, note that like other metros, NYC has actually effectively downzoned areas over time; in fact, a huge proportion of buildings ther…

NYC housing has pushed outwards into Queens and the Bronx, manhattan is less populated these days because it lacks full time residents (the apartments are still sold, but their owners list upstate/Connecticut/long island properties as their permanent addresses, and they have many less occupants in them even when full, not like the turn of the century when more than a few people were crammed into small apartments). >…

> My only point was that making cities more dense seems to make them more desirable, causing more people to want to live there.

Increasing housing in this manner would probably boost land prices, but over a greater number of units, so result in overall decrease in housing cost.

NYC is a bit of a weird spot in real estate, in that having a Manhattan address (and probably a Williamsburg or Bushwick address to a lesser degree these days) is a status symbol for foreigners, in the same way that London or Paris might be. Most American cities do not have this kind of cachet and so at some point prices will fall if you build enough.

The problem is really that housing production would have to increase by an incredible amount to get to affordable. To use the example of Tokyo as affordable, let's look at comparative housing production statistics.

* The 23 special wards of Tokyo, 8.9M people, built 110,000 new homes that year.

* The entire country of England, population 53M, built 115,000 homes a year.

* The metropolitan area of NY, population 20.3M, approved 27,000 units in 2012, but approvals != actual construction.

https://nextcity.org/urbanist-news/entry/tokyo-housing-high-...

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#243
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think this is good advice financially, though there is more to life than money. First, if by “tech salary” you mean a software engineers salary or a product managers, then you should be able to afford a house in a place like Seattle. It might be tight if you are early in your career, but it is very doable. The main reason this is likely to be bad financially is that your house won’t appreciate like a house in…

I live in Seattle. I have an engineer’s salary. I cannot presently afford a condo, let alone a house. By the time I have enough for the down payment, I will again not be able to afford a home.

You need an engineer's salary combined with another engineer's salary or very productive equity compensation. You're basically competing with folks who have both an engineer's salary(or two) combined with equity from their previous house.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#244
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s wild that manhattans population was ~2.5 million in 1910 and is now only ~1.6 million.

Doesn't it make sense though? In 1910, manhattan was expensive but a lot of people still lived/worked there. The apartments would be crazily subdivided so you could fit 10 people into a 3 or even 2 bedroom. Now they are all owned by wallstreet bankers with small families, and they spend much of their time somewhere else (they might not even list their manhattan apartment as their "main domicile" during the census).

yeah, the two big changes are

* multigenerational to nuclear households

* decline in number of kids

This pattern of living is still common to a lesser degree in outer-borough immigrant neighborhoods, which is why they were so hard hit during NYC's massive COVID wave.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anyone who relies on revolving business debt, credit card debt, or other non-fixed-rate debt goes bankrupt. This is hyperbole. Rising interest rates aren't fun, but they aren't cataclysmic. Rates have gone up and down for decades. Further, if you signal that you're taking the option to raise rates off the table, risk tolerance and asset prices will explode (some would say this has already happened due to Fed signal…

I really don't know if this is correct or not, but one thing I've heard is that low rates disincentivize lending by banks because loans are less profitable. Higher rates will actually encourage lending. Much of the money in circulation comes from the banks because of fractional lending and not from the fed's printing presses. I'm curious if anyone has a take on that. Also, I think rates need to be looked at in compar…

Spreads compress when rates are low, so yes, loans are less profitable per dollar when rates are low. But many more people and companies want to borrow so banks make out fine. And there are plenty of other financing sources available for companies, including issuing equity, VCs, junk bonds, which grow in popularity when investors need to chase yields.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#246
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no other asset I can own that alleviates the financial burden of burning nearly half of my take-home pay in perpetuity to fund some rich landlord's beach vacations.

If you’re spending that large of a percentage on housing you’re already running against most prudent financial advice and probably shouldn’t be thinking of housing as an investment asset

I live in the real world, not the fantasy one they haves think exist.

I understand where you're coming from though. You wouldn't want social mobility to become the norm.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#247
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think this is good advice financially, though there is more to life than money. First, if by “tech salary” you mean a software engineers salary or a product managers, then you should be able to afford a house in a place like Seattle. It might be tight if you are early in your career, but it is very doable. The main reason this is likely to be bad financially is that your house won’t appreciate like a house in…

I live in Seattle. I have an engineer’s salary. I cannot presently afford a condo, let alone a house. By the time I have enough for the down payment, I will again not be able to afford a home.

Nice excuse.

Only works if you want to make 20% down instead of 3%[0]

[0] https://www.knowyouroptions.com/buy-overview/affordable-mort...

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#248
post #215
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation can be good for young people. If you really think there will be significant inflation, go buy a house, borrow more than you are comfortable with it necessary. Inflation will make the debt easier to deal with in time.

This is wildly irresponsible and terrible advice

It's the exact mechanism that keeps the market in equilibrium.

Re: Will real estate ever be normal again?

#249

The Fed at this point controls the whole economy and they have two options: 1. Raise interest rates and stop printing. Crazy inflation stops, but asset prices crash and we enter a major recession or depression. The end result will likely be unrest and blood in the streets. 2. Do nothing, keep printing. Inflation picks up massively. The economy keeps humming along but young people, including myself, are permanently pr…

We have tons of inflation-proof tools: stocks, gold (to an extent), cryptocurrencies. Just don't store your savings in cash ever. Ideally, get paid in one of the tools I listed.

Dollars are for spending, not for storing. This is how the economy is built and that is fine.
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