241–250 of 408 posts
Speaking of misleading headlines: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/business/evergrande-bond-... https://archive.md/cPsjv "China Evergrande meets a Wednesday payment deadline for two of its bonds." On multiple levels, too. "It was not immediately clear whether it had made payment on the third bond, which matures in 2024, or if all of the investors in the other two bonds had received payment." So basically they MIGHT…
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Apologies for responding to my own post, but if you do a Google news search for Evergrande the first link that pops up is: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/evergrande-met-todays-bond-... The title on Google News is "Evergrande Met Today's Bond Payment Deadline" but if you click to the article the headline changes to "Evergrande met at least part of today's bond payment deadline". What is going on here?
Depends if you're a half glass empty or half glass full person, whether 2 out of 3 payments is good or bad.
> This means that if a single one of these bonds defaults, all 23 outstanding bonds automatically have ‘default’ status
https://apnews.com/press-release/pr-newswire/business-china-...
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Is your theory that the US government will run out of dollars? How do you imagine that will happen - a paper shortage?
I take the post as the US dollar becoming more scarce but not running out. If OP is right I don’t see the federal reserve acting to bail out China. They might happen to do QE for another reason but not to help out other countries with their problems.
How much exposure does the Western world have to this? My guess would be "not much". It'll sting some emerging market investors, but I don't think you'll see a massive knock-on here.
Hasn't Ray Dalio been advocating investing in China for a couple of years now? His thesis is that the US is a world power on the decline and China will soon rise to take its place. I wonder how that worked out for him and his fund?
Something I've found interesting about these kinds of theses (although I'm sure there's more to his) is that just believing that a company/country/whatever is going to be successful doesn't make it a good investment. It's all about the pricing of the asset and ultimately, for assets priced by a market mechanism, about what other people think. So a thesis for investing more in China could be "US is in decline and China will take its place faster/more fully than the market thinks."
Of course even if you don't have any special knowledge about China's future, the default position should still be to invest a part of your portfolio according to it's market weight, which in the FTSE All-World Index [1] is 3.9% currently.
[1]: https://research.ftserussell.com/Analytics/Factsheets/Home/D...
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China builds housing in advance of demand. In the United States, we fail to build housing even in the face of demand. There's pros and cons to either system, but so far, the demand has largely arrived. The ghost cities of 2010 are now bustling metropolises. The ghost cities of 2020... Are on track to become bustling metropolises. China has added ~500 million people to its cities over the past 50 years. 'Build in anti…
As long as you can make sure they don't rot before people move in. There are pros and cons to both approaches and I have personally seen the downsides to not building enough housing. We also allow far too much speculation on residential real estate in the US for my liking. People's livelihoods shouldn't be traded commodities.
Speculators blocking new building is also a problem.
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FWIW, the quoted article is from Japan.
Oh yeah, I wasn't commenting on that article directly. Just adding that any discussion about matters on the ground in China will always get warped because every information broker has a strong incentive to push their agenda. CCP will always want to make things seem rosy and perfect. Western Media wants to make it seem bad because drama sells.
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the fed are clowns. inflation data should have been priced in as anybody worth their salt (or indeed anybody doing any kind of shopping, which is everyone) knew that inflation would print above expectations, especially fed's. today's reaction was... panic of uninformed volume?
The Fed never said they weren't expecting inflation: they said they expected any inflation to be transitory (e.g. to return to expected levels by the end of 2022/23). So, we'll see.
> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…
> The dollar spiked past a key technical level today. I don't know much about "technical" forex trading, but I can say that USD/CNY didn't really change today, neither did USD/CAD, or USD/GBP. Everything is around where it's been over the past few weeks. Are you saying the real exchange rates will significantly change soon?
> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…
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Wait a second... How is Evergrande's foreign debt default translate to "waging economic warfare via equity markets"? Of course China is responsible for its own domestic debt, because evergrande borrowed from state-backed banks. Are foreign debters also backed by Chinese government? Are you suggesting Chinese government should take responsibility for foreign investors? And "for a while"? Name another case remotely mat…
Since you asked, China basically had an inside man in the Californian pension system and purchased a large amount of Chinese tech stocks. Beijing then pulled the carpet out from under them, causing 400B in US pension losses: https://www.google.com/amp/s/californiaglobe.com/articles/us...
Facts:
* US pension fund lost 400B on China investment. That's total in US not directly related to the "inside man in the CA pension system". But wait for others facts below.
* This CA pension system inside man "Yu Ben Meng" is chief investment officer of CA public employees retirement system (CalPERS). He "has long and cozy relationship with China". Because he was recruited into the "thousand talents" program.
* CalPERS invested 3.1 billion into Chinese companies. The amount lost because of them us undisclosed in the article.
Back to your statement:
> China basically had an inside man in the Californian pension system
He is recruited as thousands talent program. The relationship is claimed to be academic.
When his investment decision into Chinese companies on behalf of Cal PERS is unknown. To substantiate your statement, at least, based on the known facts, there should be a casual connection between his recruitment to thousand talent program, and later decision to invest into Chinese firm.
Further, the investment gain from this investment needs to be negative or noticeablly below market norm to actually give any doubt that such investment was not driven by sane investment assessment.
> Beijing then pulled the carpet out from under them, causing 400B in US pension losses
It's strange to paint this as a economic warfare.
Why is regulatory action with the intention to curb private corporations' influence (as western media like to portrait), being transformed into economy warfare.
Of course, it's not a stretch to claim that in this action, CCP indeed achieved the purpose of economic warfare.
But that's just usual international business. US fed has already caused global financial crisis, because of their domestic policies. For multiple times over the 20 and 21 centuries.
Did US wage economic warfare against all other nations on earth? (Because of US dollars' supremacy)
If one admit US is wagging war, then sure, China is also waging a war.
Call this whatabohtism.
But at least make it clear that this is not some Chinese specific evil. This is a universal evil.
As a Chinese myself, I don't want to be the spagagoat once US China got into an actual war. CCP is as bad as USA, thats not any Chinese fault.
And who is not investing in China? Ray Dallio? He must be a more China inside man. As he is not only investing in China, he openly claim it's still good to invest in China!
Mr. Yu Ben Meng, aside from being a Chinese, is he doing more pro China than Mr. Dallio? I cannot find any such evidence from your article.
So the reason call him a China inside man, is just because he is a Chinese?
Tell me, except the word "racism" what should I use to describe this reasoning?!