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Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis

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Re: Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis

#241
About 7 years ago I wrote out a quick list of issues (or steps) in problem resolution. Ryan Peterson's Tweet thread here seems like a near-perfect fit for my formulation.

Phrased positively,[1] the steps are:

- Awareness. Registering that there is, in fact, a problem. "The first step is admitting you've got a problem". Here, "The ports of LA/Long Beach are at a standstill."

- Diagnosis. Recognizing a problem, and correctly identifing the type or symptoms. Failures often occur through superstition / mythology, poor understanding, or other modeling / framing errors, frequently of the "what you know that just ain't so" variety. Here, trucks that can't unload empties cannot load new, loaded containers for delivery.

- Etiology. Correctly identify the root cause. Here: "If you can’t get the empty off the chassis, you don’t have a chassis to go pick up the next container."

- Objective. Determining a preferable (or attainable, or stable) resolved state. Here, "overwhelm the bottleneck and create yard space at the ports so we can operate".

- Redress (or method). Having figured out where you are and where you want to be, how to get there. Here, "allow truck yards to store empty containers up to six high instead of the current limit of 2". (Among other measures.)

- Communication. Convincing others. Peterson's Twitter thread and CTA, of which the HN discussion is a part.

- Execution. Having secured agreement and/or support, acting and executing effectively. The Getting Shit Done problem. Apparently in process, as the box-stack-height limit has been lifted: https://nitter.kavin.rocks/RobertGarcia/status/1451679404757...

- Assessment. Did you actually solve / address the situation effectively? Learning from it and passing this on for future knowledge? Not so critical in terms of the present problem, but useful for future iterations. We're not there yet, but that's the final step in the loop.

My earlier list (phrased as the negative of the above) here: https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2fsr0g/hierarc...

________________________________

Notes:

1. I'd originally written the list as a "hierarchy of failure", itself a tool to properly identify stuck processes.

Re: Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That “source” does not support the claim that customs is the bottleneck, it supports the claim that port operations in their totality are the bottleneck.

While that is a fair criticism, I would like to ask you this: why are there so few ports in the USA? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ports_in_the_United_... The answer to this question is that merely possessing coastal land is not a sufficient enough condition to open a port-- rather various levels of government are involved in creating and regulating an official "port of entry" to the United States. Otherwis…

Big Sur and the Mendocino coastline make for poor port sites.

Every major harbour site (and several minor ones) that can be utilised is: Seattle/Vancouver (Puget Sound), Portland (Columbia River), San Francisco, Los Angeles/Long Beach, and San Diego.

Even the minor sites of Coos Bay (Oregon), Monterey, and Morro Bay have some cargo capacity (lumber at Coos, largely fishing out of Monterey and Morro). None of those are remotely near large population centres or other transportation infrastructure, and would make zarrow sense for a major port.

Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego are major destinations on their own, and are well-connected to major land-based transportation links (rail and highway).

Re: Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis

#243

The last year and a half of pandemic aid has been a large scale experiment in universal basic income. The results seem to be somewhat expected: a labor shortage and high inflation.

France has UBI since 1981 and it’s called RMI. We still have it. Let’s stop with this “large scale experiment”, we already have the results.

High unemployment, stagnant economy and frequent strikes?

Re: Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis

#244

The last year and a half of pandemic aid has been a large scale experiment in universal basic income. The results seem to be somewhat expected: a labor shortage and high inflation.

France has UBI since 1981 and it’s called RMI. We still have it. Let’s stop with this “large scale experiment”, we already have the results.

RMI has been replaced with RSA, which is a form of negative income tax -- something championed by Milton Friedman and others of the Chicago school. It's not UBI.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_income_tax https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revenu_de_solidarité_active

Re: Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Move fast and break things doesn't work so well with things like the supply chain. We don't have a good qa env.

> Move fast and break things doesn't work so well with things like the supply chain. What about when it’s already almost completely broken and getting worse? That’s precisely when you need creative out of the container thinking.

When dealing with a system like the global supply chain, where the potential blast radius for issues is massive, it doesn’t matter how much incentive there is to fix the problem when the incentive to not make the problem worse by accident is so, so much bigger.

Re: Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis

#246
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Does “Very New” match with “10 years old”? 10 years is the average or target lifespan of a tractor-trailer If 10 years is the average then you are eliminating 50% of trucks on the road. Do you think that could have an impact?

10 years is the average or target lifespan of a truck, not necessarily the average age. I’m not sure what the average age or distribution for trucks serving California ports are Similarly, human life expectancy is 80 years in the US, but the average age is 38. The same fact check says that 96% of vehicles are compliant, and order vehicles can be made compliant by replacing the engine. Either way, a lack of trucks is…

> made compliant by replacing the engine

This costs $20-40k [0] not including the down time and lost revenue from the overhaul. So that’s not a simple cost for owner operators.

[0] https://cagtruckcapital.com/truck-engine-overhaul-tips/

Re: Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis

#247
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's weird to me that thousands of people work at the docks or with the trucks, and likely understand these problems quite well, but only after a silicon valley guy rented a boat to take a look and tweeted about it did it come to attention of the larger world. Is it just that these other people don't want to "rock the boat" at their place of employment?

My guess is they assume, mostly correctly, that their viewpoint will be ignored. Even if their boss takes them seriously, somewhere between them and whoever can make useful decisions will decide that some dock workers opinion can't be worth more than all the reports and data they themselves are working with... or something like that. So making a stink about it is a lot of effort and emotional labor for almost no upsi…

Because if enough people do it, that might make a difference.

Re: Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis

#248

I'm not sure I agree with the conclusions in this thread. >It seems that everyone now agrees that the bottleneck is yard space at the container terminals. The terminals are simply overflowing with containers, which means they no longer have space to take in new containers either from ships or land. It’s a true traffic jam This seems like definitely not the real bottleneck. You have to ask yourself, "why is there no s…

> Why don't you have enough trucks?

Trucks are plentiful. Trailer empty chassis are not. Your assumption that truck labor is in short supply is a derivative of your misunderstanding of the difference between the trucks and the chassis.

The truck is the thing with the Diesel engine, the cab, and the truck driver. It can detach the trailer and pick up a new trailer.

The thread clearly identifies the “empty chassis” (the trailer with wheels that is capable of mounting a standard container on top) as one of the scarce items.

Re: Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently the containers are not fungible; maybe they should be.

its surprising. I thought that was a key point of them. Granted the standardized sizes and construction standards is probably the most important thing. But once you have that the next logical benefit is to treat them as fungible commodities, like digits in an account. Perhaps in normal times they are, but when the flow equilibrium is disrupted suddenly the discretized reality pokes its head through.

The containers are sufficiently fungible for the purposes of mounting on trailers, stacking in lots, and stocking the ships.

The containers are not sufficiently fungible in the fact that they are owned by different entities which may not all want the containers to be shipped to just any place.

Re: Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis

#250

Why isn't the solution to put empty containers back on unloaded ships to be sent away? BTW for fun reading on operations logistics and identifying and attacking bottlenecks see "The Goal" by Eli Goldratt. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Goal_%28novel%29

was just going to say the same...

if i understand the situation correctly, it seems caused by "over optimization" of the whole chain, so when a surge in demand occurred a "pipeline bubble" resulted that started the whole pileup??

in my understanding, this is why he stressed that being too optimized and efficient (demming says something similar) is actually dangerous... right?

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