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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#241

Post by dannyw »

kebman wrote: post #176
Aloha wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Notice how that building collapse in Florida is a vanishingly rare event? That's part of why. Also some rent seeking in there. We used to have weak building codes, more buildings fell down.

I get the need to safeguard condominiums and high-rises, but what is that to single or duplex home owners?

There's a general expectation that if you own a house, even a single or duplex house, it's not going to fall apart and put lives at risk with a moderate storm or kitchen fire.

I'd agree with you that there is a lot of unnecessary and unproductive bureaucracy in the process, but I do not mind the status quo.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#242

Post by TMWNN »

10GBps wrote: post #6

I don't think prices are "cratering" so much as just returning to normal rather than price gouging. Now if I could just buy a GPU for a normal price...

(The already high) GPU prices skyrocketed from December to about May, then plateaued and even slipped a little because 1. crypto prices fell 2. supply improved (obviously connected to 1) and 3. new Nvidia cards implemented LHR to discourage mining. Recently crypto prices have risen again, and card prices have followed. What I'm saying is: You missed your chance, relatively speaking.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#243

Post by dannyw »

chromatin wrote: post #18
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

We backed out of working with a builder because price went up about $100k over the course of 3 months earlier in 2021. There is no way that was justified , lumber and supply chains notwithstanding. I respect his right to maximize profits in this market, but I won’t be part of it.

Unfortunately I suspect it'll never be cheaper to build.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#244

Post by rinze »

kebman wrote: post #167
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Why does the USA, The Land of the Free and The Land of Opportunity, have so much bureaucracy? Look, I know fire codes are important, and you don't want a building to crumble in around you, but... Seems the building codes in the US are unnecessarily strict. Is it power hungry bureaucrats or exploitation from contractors that has lead to it? And how can the people be given more liberty to build the way they want?

> Why does the USA, The Land of the Free and The Land of Opportunity, have so much bureaucracy? Look, I know fire codes are important, and you don't want a building to crumble in around you, but...

Yep, we should leave that to the market. You happen to live in a building that collapses, well, then you can have The Choice(TM) to never inhabit a building made by the same company again (if you're lucky). Eventually they'll be driven out of the market, unless people choose to risk it after assessing all available information, in which case there's nothing we can really do about it.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#245

Post by blitzar »

pjc50 wrote: post #221
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> I just pictured a typical computer developer in a wet lot, with an unhappy wife. Have you heard of the TV programme Grand Designs ? It's just this over and over again. Sometimes the wife is pregnant, sometimes they're living in a caravan on site. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/grand-designs They're not trying to build anything as simple as a house, either, the "grand" part implies some mad architectural vision…

> Sometimes the wife is pregnant

The mid project reveal is always "surprise we are pregnant". It brings me great added joy when they are building a 'dream' 3 bedroom house and it is the 3rd kid that they are pregnant with.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#246

Post by gjvc »

lbriner wrote: post #225
RNCTX wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> check on it every day you got it. > Is there a better way? no.

It is hard since even experienced and capable builders might still take you for a ride. In the UK, plumbers are notorious for not turning up to jobs and not even calling etc. Those that know what they are doing are also prone to inflate a quote to someone they think can afford it. The other problem in the UK is there is no formal registry for a "builder" as opposed to plumbers, electricians and even window fitters th…

> The other problem in the UK is there is no formal registry for a "builder" as opposed to plumbers, electricians and even window fitters that have to be registered.

In the UK, electricians do not have to be registered.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#247

Post by blitzar »

tayo42 wrote: post #147
Dylan16807 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You still end up owning the house, so it's more of a conversion in savings. And you'd probably be paying it off over time, with the help of ongoing income, if the mortgage rate isn't super high. Land depends on where you go, no comment there, but keeping up payment on your current place during construction just means you end up paying for 21 years of housing on a 20 year mortgage, or 31 years of housing on a 30 year…

hmm thats an interesting way to think of it.

Nothing wrong with having $1mil in a bank account, $1mil house, $1mil mortgage (yes naive / general example - but I am sure you can get the idea).

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#248

Post by wombat23 »

arthurcolle wrote: post #105
tayo42 wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

its still expensive to borrow $700,000, on top of your current expenses. that's an extra payment of $3300, whos got that laying around to wait for a house to be built

If the Fed is committed to propping up equity markets which they asserted in no uncertain terms when markets died in the beginnings of the realization that COVID was going to be much more substantive than SARS or H1N1, it was clear that equity markets would take the "good news" of lockdowns + continued lower interest rates as signs that equity markets were going to continue to rally. I mean basically where is there y…

> Even just running correlation analysis on these various assets over the last 20 years showed that crypto was super underpriced

care to elaborate?

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#249

Post by sgt »

hnick wrote: post #215
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes! This has been my nagging question for years too. I make 5x the median wage in my county and my county has the second highest wage in the US. I see all these $M houses being sold left and right and I'd never feel comfortable buying a $M plus house. What gives?

If you already own a home that appreciated to $800k+ then trading in to buy at $1M doesn't seem as bad. Prices seem silly to me here too (Australia) but a lot of it seems to be a combination of the perception that house prices just always go up, so you have to "get on the ladder" as they say and trade your way along. Each step doesn't seem to be a huge investment in itself. If you don't hop on, then you get left behi…

But that means moving all the time. Yes you will trade yourself to the best house in the end and perhaps to a much better neighborhood, but moving can be a bit traumatizing...

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#250

Post by sgt »

ButterWashed wrote: post #233
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes! This has been my nagging question for years too. I make 5x the median wage in my county and my county has the second highest wage in the US. I see all these $M houses being sold left and right and I'd never feel comfortable buying a $M plus house. What gives?

I know people living in London where prices are insane who secure a mortgage without ever intending to pay the full term. They buy a property, live very conservatively in the hope the prices go up and use that extra boost to move out of the city. If prices on an investment rise more than inflation 90% of the time why wouldn't you buy it?

I feel bad for the people renting in London. Most people I know there simply can't afford buying as it is prohibitively expensive (>300k pounds I think?)
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