If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund • Hacker News Board

Re: If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund

#241

Post by gfodor » Wed, Jun 09, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

Workaccount2 wrote: post #234

gfodor wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I follow this account and others like it because it allows one to be exposed to things like the idea that COVID leaked from a lab a year ago. Skepticism is warranted in all cases, of course, but I think it's extremely healthy to keep in tune with a variety of subcommunities who are in and of themselves skeptics of many mainstream narratives.

That's a broken calendar is right once a year situation.

This is a false mental model because there is no singular calendar. If you are actually exposed to a variety of ideas there is no obvious, universal set of narratives you can point to as having a clean bisection between one or two 'calendars.' Tribalism does cause things to increasingly cut that way, but the mental model is still a false one.

Re: If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund

#242

Post by paulpauper » Wed, Jun 09, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

TheCowboy wrote: post #129

yabones wrote: post #102

Things went off the rails at the end... > Well, the banks are controlled by and in bed with the same cabal buying everything up. You think this will be corrected by market forces when it is a financial and political pincher movement pushed by the same cabal that stole the 2020 election & hid COVID Truth? You are fucked. https://twitter.com/APhilosophae/status/1402449561864577024 IMO, weakens the entire 'thread' and m…

People using "The Great Reset" as a pejorative tend to have their views deeply rooted in right-leaning garbage conspiracy theories. Surely there's a better source for what Black Rock is doing than this person's Twitter thread. > Only the worlds largest asset manager and the leading proponent of The Great Reset. https://twitter.com/APhilosophae/status/1402437638423035906

I think an objective case can be made that Covid has irrevocably changed the economy in way that has created new winners and losers, without it being part of a grand conspiracy.

Re: If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund

#243

Post by ItsMonkk » Wed, Jun 09, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

xapata wrote: post #51

adflux wrote: post #16

This is what happens when you keep printing money and keep mortgage rates incredibly low. All that money's gotta go somewhere. Hey, at least the CPI isn't going up right? Its only the most expensive thing in most people's lives that has doubled in cost in about 10 years. Same thing for stock prices, and slowly other commodity prices are catching up as well. Non-homeowners are being shafted by this fed/ecb policy. Eve…

> Its only the most expensive thing in most people's lives that has doubled in cost in about 10 years. Most people pay for housing by monthly payments, making the nominal value of the house irrelevant if the monthly payment stays the same. Further, you should consider the home owner's "basket of goods" to include the hypothetical rent they'd be paying for an equivalent house. Their mortgage payments and home ownershi…

Here's why this matters to you. When the Fed funds rate is at 10%, the mortgage rate is 13% or so. That says that the risk that you have is 3% above the risk free rate.

When the Fed funds rate is 0%, your mortgage rate is 3%, that same difference in the Fed Funds rate.

But wait, think of that like we think of absorption. If I have a capacity to absorb of 1L and can absorb 50% of a liquid, then I will break when 2L is poured. If I bring my absorption rate to 98%, then I now break at 50L. If the government can absorb at 99.99% rates and you absorb at 97% rates, they can absorb 10000L while you can only absorb 33L.

If you want the government to control every decision regarding money in the future, you want the interest rate to be as low as possible. If you want people to use free markets to decide where money flows, you want high interest rates. Why is politics so contentious? Interest rates are dropping.

Re: If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund

#244

Post by cosmojg » Wed, Jun 09, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

chki wrote: post #183

world_peace42 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I clicked it. Looks like he's a Republican and a Christian (and has pretty standard opinions for that intersection) who likes to write long political essays. Are you sure he's a nut job, or could you possibly just be a bigot?

These are literally two out of the first four paragraphs I read when clicking on that link: >Dearest Friends & Fellow Americans, The eminent trial of our Age is upon us. Those whose courage fails them now, who shrink from the fight, and sit idly while the very foundations of our nation collapse should sit in shame; but those that stand boldly by the Constitution deserve the eternal thanks of all mankind. Malignant ty…

And? Honestly, these are pretty damn tame. I don't understand the point you're trying to make.

While I personally disagree with at least one of the statements you quoted and some other ideas held by the author, many of the ideas presented in the posted Twitter thread still stand. Ad hominem attacks are worthless in a discussion of ideas.

Re: If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund

#245

Post by rfw300 » Wed, Jun 09, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

world_peace42 wrote: post #168

cortesoft wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think that was disturbing, check out the substack linked to the twitter account. Full on nut job.

I clicked it. Looks like he's a Republican and a Christian (and has pretty standard opinions for that intersection) who likes to write long political essays. Are you sure he's a nut job, or could you possibly just be a bigot?

If that guy’s views are typical of the class, that says more about the class than anyone judging the guy.

Re: If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund

#246

Post by gowld » Wed, Jun 09, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #156

alert0 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now interest rates are low, they cannot use them as a tool in a crisis, for this reason they are printing money to lower the overall debt obligation of the US. Inflating away our debt. This will eventually lead to inflation at which point the interest rates will rise again (prediction, at the end of the decade). This is the correct play for where we are in the long term debt cycle. In my opinion, this is happen…

> Right now interest rates are low, they cannot use them as a tool in a No, interest rate are low because they are using them as a tool in a crisis .

They were already used as a tool, and so can't be used further (due to irrational fears of nominally negative interest rates). Printing money is effectively equivalent to lowering rates.

Re: If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund

#247

Post by zamfi » Wed, Jun 09, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

davidw wrote: post #189

scotuswroteus wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You lost me at the end. You lack political acumen if you think this is how politics works: " If there's a credible threat to build plenty of housing, they'll move on." The Yimbies supported Mayor Breed. She hasn't changed the political problems in SF that you're (for the most part, accurately) diagnosing here. The problem with most anti-activist government screeds like this is that they lack the same nuance and sophi…

I don't live in San Francisco, and our local YIMBY group is getting things done, thank you very much. We helped nudge our local representatives towards passing HB2001 in Oregon, which will add to the supply of more affordable homes. We've helped get apartments built locally. We speak regularly with our city councilors. It takes a lot more than being 'highly online' and YIMBY groups are doing that work.

Now that duplexes are allowed, how long does it take to get one approved?

Re: If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund

#248

Post by secondcoming » Wed, Jun 09, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

TheCowboy wrote: post #129

yabones wrote: post #102

Things went off the rails at the end... > Well, the banks are controlled by and in bed with the same cabal buying everything up. You think this will be corrected by market forces when it is a financial and political pincher movement pushed by the same cabal that stole the 2020 election & hid COVID Truth? You are fucked. https://twitter.com/APhilosophae/status/1402449561864577024 IMO, weakens the entire 'thread' and m…

People using "The Great Reset" as a pejorative tend to have their views deeply rooted in right-leaning garbage conspiracy theories. Surely there's a better source for what Black Rock is doing than this person's Twitter thread. > Only the worlds largest asset manager and the leading proponent of The Great Reset. https://twitter.com/APhilosophae/status/1402437638423035906

While I don't know what the tweeter understands by 'The Great Reset', it actually is a thing [0]. What's your understanding of it?

[0] https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/

Re: If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund

#249

Post by matwood » Wed, Jun 09, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

xapata wrote: post #113

adflux wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some people say "Well, you're paying more but you can also sell it for more afterwards". But non-homeowners are still paying more for less. That's the argument I am trying to make (poorly)

My rent doesn't change with interest rates.

Daily no. But higher interest rates and high inflation absolutely leads to higher rents each year when your lease renews (unless of course your in some rent controlled environment).

Re: If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund

#250

Post by valeness » Wed, Jun 09, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

pentagone wrote: post #143

valeness wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the disruption will come from the civil planning side of the equation. When we can figure out how to build a city on the edge of Arizona that people actually want to live in then we can begin to leverage more efficient and automated building techniques like 3d printing houses and stuff. It takes more than houses; also entertainment, food, infrastructure, jobs, etc. Otherwise, you're 100% right, location is ki…

Like this? https://archive.curbed.com/2019/5/31/18639098/california-cit...

Yes, although in hindsight it's easy to say that was poorly executed. It looks far too big and tried to be more than it should have been in my opinion. I'm thinking more along the lines of small neighborhoods on the edge of a city that can provide stronger logistical support.

Closer to Sun City Arizona.

> ... This caught the eye of the FTC, which said the advertising was deceptive and ordered the city’s developers to stop ...

This is also an interesting point in the article. Was it actually a scam or just overly ambitious and poorly executed?