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Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

reuters.com

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Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#241

Post by AnIdiotOnTheNet »

kjakm wrote: post #114
halfmatthalfcat wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me, it's because the hype isn't around the technology (which is the interesting part and for the most part, why we're on HN), it's around the speculation. From the outside, looks like a bunch of gamblers constantly getting each other off on whether their bets will make them millionares. It's just...sad...at a level.

A fair opinion to have. I feel every HN thread on crypto now though dissolves to negativity (without any substance) + toxicity really quickly.

It is hard not to be negative about something with such a huge environmental impact that doesn't seem to do anything but let gamblers gamble.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#242

Post by mahogany »

hexedpackets wrote: post #181
SavantIdiot wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SPY is up 50% since 2019 (pre covid crash). As someone partially invested in index ETFs, this worries me. Index funds aren't supposed to be nitro, they are supposed to be slow and plodding, and 10% annual is supposed to be huge. I think major indices should be nice, slow, inertial gains from ~6-7% annual, tops. Why? When at any point as an engineer or a scientist have you observed large exponential growth to be susta…

10% annual is not huge at all, it would actually be on the lower end of a year that had positive gains. 10% average is what you should expect for the SP500 - and that tends to be driven by lumps, years with returns >20%. 50% is high from a historical perspective but there are plausible explanations for why it's not absurd.

I remember 7% being the historic average that all the classic investing books said. I think it's after adjusting for inflation and dividends. How are you calculating 10%?

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#243

Post by Nursie »

pilingual wrote: post #233
jmacd wrote: post #11

As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…

Thank you for the disinterested take! It's refreshing to see this as a top comment when so often I see "Crypto makes me sick" which offers zero information and doesn't belong on HN. A few points to the repetitive comments I keep seeing: 1. Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme. Various cryptocurrencies operate in such a manner, but Bitcoin and Ethereum have value propositions: settlement and programmable money respectively.…

> I do not understand how every time cryptocurrency comes up armchair HN users come along and comment when they, very apparently, have almost no understanding of the topic

This in itself is a meme - "All criticism is ignorance!"

Bitcoin is not a ponzi or a pyramid scheme, that's true, but it has aspects of both, with its declining emission and stacked rewards for early adopters.

And Bitcoin is for settlement now is it?

That's interesting, and a massive deviation from its original intent (see the white paper) as well as all the other purposes it's been ascribed over the years.

The truth is that bitcoin is an instrument of speculation. Little else.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#244

Post by zepto »

stephc_int13 wrote: post #149
zepto wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It may be arrogant sounding, but it’s not stupid. It is in the financial interest of Bitcoin holders to talk up Bitcoin and defend it to the death. The senior management of regular banks in many countries are often required by law to deny that the bank is in jeopardy right up until the moment they close the doors, as a way to prevent bank runs. Because crypto is distributed, every holder is a bank manager, and must d…

What would happen if a significant fraction of the population was holding crypto?

Depends on the currency. Not all crypto is the same as Bitcoin. I’m pretty positive about cryptocurrency in the long term, once we have a design that incentivizes positive externalities.

Seems like if a large part of the population of the US held Bitcoin, and 51% of the hash power remains in China, there will be some nasty geopolitical consequences.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#245

Post by cesarb »

stephc_int13 wrote: post #8

I don't know why, it is probably highly irrational, but I always rejoice when the Bitcoin crashes.

The usefulness of Bitcoin does not depend on its price, but its power usage does depend on its price (it's bounded by how much power can be bought with the block rewards and transaction fees), so it's a good thing when the Bitcoin price goes down.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#247

Post by scsilver »

cromka wrote: post #106
tadzik_ wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If $SPY dropped 40% we'd all call it a crash. This isn't that different If $SPY was 40% up since last month, would that be normal? ETH is still currently higher than its value from April 19th. Cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile. This isn't that far from normal.

> Cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile. This isn't that far from normal. I think you inadvertently confirm OPs point. Cryptocurrencies with their volatility cannot replace regular currencies.

Thats the thing, they arent currencies, they are assets that can act like currencies when convenient.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#248

Post by Mc_Big_G »

It's funny how everyone here worships YC and YC has invested in multiple crypto companies and yet everyone here hates crypto and everyone involved in crypto. How do you justify that? Is it because you think YC is just clever to cash in on the speculation, the same way Trump is clever to not pay any taxes, but you hate all the little guys that cash in on the speculation?

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#249

Post by icyfox »

johnwheeler wrote: post #145
ProjectArcturis wrote: post #56

Bitcoin is the ultimate, purely financial object. It has no revenues or profits. The supply is fixed -- unlike, say, gold, where high prices mean people will eventually start digging mines, BTC supply is entirely price-inelastic. The only thing that determines BTC price is demand. And over the past 13 years, we've seen reflexivity at work: The price has gone up, so more people want it, so the price goes up further, a…

To me, the argument that fixed supply is a good thing has always been worrisome. People just parrot that viewpoint without asking whether some amount of Keynesian economics is useful, because you know, government is evil. It got us out of the Great Recession and it’s been 12 years. Maybe the consequences haven’t fully manifest, but another Great Depression would have been guaranteed hell.

Keynesian economics got us out of the actual Great Depression as well, if you consider FDR's decision to get off the gold standard and start trading dollars as a floating currency on the market.

Fixed monetary supply might be one thing in theory, but fixed credit supply is the death knell to an economy. And the two are usually complimentary. Monetary supply can fill in the potholes of weakening credit supply when the latter contracts - and it inevitably will when the private issuers that generate those debt contracts pull back in a recession. If you have your hands tied to some constrained supply like gold or bitcoin, like what happened to the central banks after World War I and into the Great Depression, you end up backed up against a wall.

That said there is certainly something that's personally appealing about an asset that's guaranteed to maintain the supply side of the equilibrium. As an investor you only have to consider demand. But for any kind of widely used currency that backs an economy it's going to be problematic.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#250

Post by papito »

djbebs wrote: post #76
blfr wrote: post #27

Coinbase is down for me. Gotta give it to BTC: it's a great store of value. You cannot sell it in panic, the technology is protecting you from your own psychology.

Coinbase infrastrcture does not run on bitcoin

But does it run on BLOCKCHAIN.
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