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London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

hsj.co.uk

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Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#241

Post by alimw »

oxfordmale wrote: post #197

Looking at COVID models, the hospital admission peak is around the 10th of January UK wide. Cases have already started to level in London. Lockdown has been implemented too late to make any significant difference to that. Not the most reliable source, but confirmed by other sources which are unfortunately behind a paywall. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9115357/amp/Coronav...

> Cases have already started to level in London. Lockdown has been implemented too late to make any significant difference to that.

This is a common claim and I have seen it made about various periods of lockdown in various countries. "Look, rate of increase started to slow within a week of lockdown, but it should take two weeks to see the effect, so it can't be that lockdown has made any difference." There is usually far too much noise in the figures to make such a claim about small differences in time scale. Also if you were expecting a sudden drop after two weeks then you were bound to be disappointed. The amount of time it takes for an infection to become a recorded case of Covid will be random according to some distribution (possibly with a mean of one or two weeks) so the transition will be smooth.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#242

Post by triceratops »

war1025 wrote: post #155
triceratops wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the vast majority of people who died this past year died of something else. Given that no single cause of death is more than 50% of deaths, this is true for any cause of death.

The media went out of their way to make people think that Coronavirus was basically the only cause of death this year. Combined with the bogus "positivity rate" that most lay people misinterpreted as the percentage of the population currently infected, this has been coordinated disinformation on a mass scale.

Coronavirus is the most significant new cause of death in 2020, of course the media is going to talk about it. It's newsworthy. You're just spouting random conspiracy theories.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#243

Post by _jal »

e40 wrote: post #54
jpxw wrote: post #33

And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…

A colleague made the point that we need more pictures of overflowing morgues and ICUs and (like is happening in LA) people waiting in an ambulance for 7-8 hours (and some of those people dying because of it). Just like the US government banned (discouraged?) pictures of caskets coming back from war. These images need to be on the news and on news websites 24/7.

Those images have been intentionally suppressed in the US.

https://theintercept.com/2020/12/27/covid-photography-hospit...

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#244

Post by lolc »

eznzt wrote: post #184
matthewmacleod wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a consistent taking point among the more egregious parts of the “lockdown skeptic” crew and it is, of course, absolute bullshit - it’s based on shallow comparisons of numbers that are not comparable. If you do decide to promote this talking point anyway, flag it with the appropriate disclaimer from the NHS: …caution should be exercised in comparing overall occupancy rates between this year and previous years.…

The NHS depends on the government and is therefore not a neutral source.

Well but the NHS is the source of the data to begin with. And they communicate limitations along with the data. You can't just ignore those and use their data. You'd have to find another source that offers actually comparable numbers.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#245

Post by fsdfgsfsdfsdfsd »

labster wrote: post #49
jpxw wrote: post #33

And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…

Or maybe these people will keep believing the lie, even after they die from COVID, like the Calormen at the end of CS Lewis’ The Last Battle. Everyone else will be in Heaven, and they’ll be all like, “Let me out of the hospital, corona is a lie!”

People die from all sorts of diseases. Someone dying from Corona doesn't prove that he died from a pandemic level disease. (I'm not saying it is not a pandemic, just that that kind of logic is bullshit).

Even the nurse reports about "patients being in disbelief about dying". I would imagine lots of people who are about to die are in disbelief.

A friend of my mother died from the flu. He called her shortly before that. I think he probably also was in disbelief.

Do you expect to die from the flu?

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#246

Post by matz1 »

smcl wrote: post #182
polote wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if we let the virus lives its life, maximum 2% of pop will die, 90 more % will live normally and a few percent will have covid related health issues. so we sacrifice a few percent of population for the future of the others

So by that calculation 1.32 million people (2% of 66 million) would die and we're supposed to NOT react strongly to people who hold that opinion?

As supposed of advocating lockdown ? How many million of people would suffer from lockdown?

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#248

Post by asdff »

Aeolun wrote: post #215
jpxw wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that this would be effective against most people. But when this happened in Italy, a large number of the conspiracy crowd just said the photos were faked.

Life was easier when it wasn’t so easy to fake a photo...

When was that, 1880? You can do some pretty funky stuff in the darkroom when you are making your prints.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#249

Post by midasuni »

Havoc wrote: post #127
midasuni wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it’s not. People catching at Christmas probably wouldn’t be at hospitalisation stage just yet, and the next order of infection certainly wouldn’t.

>No it’s not. huh? There were lots of reports about ambulance queues last week already https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-42570660 https://www.itv.com/news/london/2020-12-30/ambulances-with-c... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6mCJt__oxQ

That’s from people who sight it before Christmas.

Takes 3 weeks from catching it to hospital - that’s still a few days away

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#250

Post by daenz »

Aeolun wrote: post #211
jpxw wrote: post #33

And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…

> the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses I’m not sure I see what kind of upside they see for anyone if this happens, much less the government.

The supposed goal of a malicious government is to make everyone entirely dependent on it, for everything, even the basics. Small business represents independence to a large degree. Destroying small business means everyone turns to the government to survive. Having everyone dependent on you means you can enact any law with little resistence.
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