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The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

lynalden.com

241–250 of 367 posts

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#241
post #236

One thing I don't understand: > The COVID-19 pandemic hit in early 2020, which halted global trade and contributed (along with a structural oil oversupply issue) to a collapse in oil prices. The dollar quickly spiked, foreigners began outright selling Treasuries and other US assets to get dollars Earlier on the article explains that in the petrodollar system, foreigners need dollars to buy oil. If they can now buy oi…

They want to get more dollars because their liabilities are denominated in dollars.

So when things go bad, and the price of dollars goes up, everyone who's "short" dollars (via having liabilities priced in dollars vs local currency assets) sees the value of their debt appreciate, and it's painful.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#242
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They're not. One can't cut taxes below zero, for starters. You might want to check with the IRS, since that's exactly what the EITC does. It's also the de facto result when a company takes a tax loss (e.g. from deducting more expenses than it had in revenue, common for startups) and can then sell the tax loss to another company to offset its tax burden. > Tax cuts didn't build the Hoover dam, the interstate highway…

> that's exactly what the EITC does The EITC is for individuals that have low incomes, AFAIK. Can you elaborate on how the EITC would increase the amount of US manufacturing? > It's also the de facto result when a company takes a tax loss (e.g. from deducting more expenses than it had in revenue, common for startups) and can then sell the tax loss to another company to offset its tax burden. Can the tax loss be sold…

> The EITC is for individuals that have low incomes, AFAIK. Can you elaborate on how the EITC would increase the amount of US manufacturing?

The EITC is an example of a "tax cut" that allows for negative tax rates.

> Can the tax loss be sold separate from the legal entity itself?

Actually selling the tax loss is generally only done for defunct companies, since a company expecting a future profit would just keep it in their pocket to use themselves later. Although you could probably still do it if you wanted to by splitting the company in two and then selling the one that "owns" the tax loss or something similar.

> Are you saying that without the TCJA, none of these would have been built?

I'm saying that private entities can build things like that.

> If a business needs $10 million in capital to buy the machinery necessary to make widget X, and has to compete with an existing factory that produces equivalent widgets and has paid off their existing machinery, how can they compete?

The real issue is that if you add a factory, you could be in a situation of overcapacity, and then you're locked in price competition and selling at thin margins, which nobody likes.

The secret is this. Factories have a finite lifetime, e.g. 30 years. So you have an incumbent that has paid off their factory. It's 28 years old. You pay $10M to build a new factory, today. They're going to drive prices below your cost for two years, but then they're going to have to build a new factory themselves... and bow out, because the alternative would mean being locked in unprofitable price competition with you for another 28 years. So you win the market and can go back to charging profitable margins. You just have to time your entry right, i.e. finish your construction just before they start on theirs.

Assuming you're even two different companies. Otherwise you just build your company's new factory in the new place whenever the old one in the old place is ready to be mothballed.

> The existing business already has relationships with suppliers, customers, and distributors, and if the new entrant looks like it will be trouble, they can just cut their profit margin such that the new entrant will be struggling to cover the extra expenses associated with building all of those relationships while paying off the loans to acquire the machinery.

To some extent this is also just a war of attrition. If a new entrant causes oversupply for any reason then it persists until somebody goes out of business. This has more to do with who has more money they're willing to set fire to in order to capture a given amount of market share than who was in the market first.

One way to help your people win is to ensure cheap access to capital (i.e. low interest rates), but that's already there in the US.

> Or one could say that the Republicans are unwilling to play ball as well (eg. over COVID-19 related stimulus).

It was your impression that the Republicans were the ones holding this up? They had every political incentive to accept any reasonable bill before the election, and even now to do it before the inauguration in order to take credit for it.

> The fact is, whether one party is at fault over the other, Americans and US businesses are paying the cost of the lack of bipartisan initiatives to improve the state of US manufacturing.

On this we agree.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#243
post #234
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but he said he said that simply because Bernie did, and it played well against Hillary in the primaries. He didn’t do anything that actually slowed the loss of our manufacturing base while president.

Oh really? I'm sure it's just a coincidence that after getting repeatedly browbeat Apple dramatically ramped up iPhone production in India and Brazil? That's just one example. I guess we will know for sure - if they slow or reverse (especially in India) under Beijing Biden that will be confirmation Trump was successful at least at moving manufacturing away from China. It was a start. I don't expect it to continue wit…

> Apple dramatically ramped up iPhone production in India and Brazil

Increased production in India and Brazil don't do anything for the loss of U.S. manufacturing.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#244
post #236

One thing I don't understand: > The COVID-19 pandemic hit in early 2020, which halted global trade and contributed (along with a structural oil oversupply issue) to a collapse in oil prices. The dollar quickly spiked, foreigners began outright selling Treasuries and other US assets to get dollars Earlier on the article explains that in the petrodollar system, foreigners need dollars to buy oil. If they can now buy oi…

They want to get more dollars because their liabilities are denominated in dollars. So when things go bad, and the price of dollars goes up, everyone who's "short" dollars (via having liabilities priced in dollars vs local currency assets) sees the value of their debt appreciate, and it's painful.

Thanks, that makes sense.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To compete, you really do have to cut minimum wage. You have to loosen regulations, and importantly, you have to do massive tariffs / sanctions on China for the next decade. Part of the problem here is that the existence of some kind of universal "more regulations / less regulations" slider is an illusion. It allows the problem to be cast in partisan terms when that isn't the problem at all, because the problem isn…

The problem here -- and perhaps the main problem in all our politics -- is that large swaths of the electorate do not understand the concept of second order effects. Regulations are always good because they consider only the first order effect. That is, the goal of the regulation is usually a laudable one that everyone would support. But you have to look at the costs and unintended consequences of the regulation to r…

I think many more people understand second-order effects than you imply, but I think they understand that those second-order effects hurt certain groups of Americans more than others.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#246

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

My father was one of the last tool makers in the US working for Molex. They spent years teaching the Chinese, the Chinese would disassemble all molds sent over to China and often break them, so my fathers team would have to fix / rebuild them. They spent years training the Chinese side-by-side in the US. In the end they still haven’t exactly caught up to the quality we had in the US. However, they now have 5x the too…

> "You either let free people work for what ever wage they can achieve or we risk becoming slaves ourselves."

We should work for slave-like wages voluntarily or have it forced upon us?

This is a poorly thought out argument. Cost of living, housing, etc. is obviously different in US, you might end up with less income than is necessary for survival. What makes you think you will be able to find any workers at all, let alone those trained to the necessary standard and skill?

It should be obvious that appropriate responce to a crime (slave labour) being committed is not to commit the same crime yourself.

Any products with stolen materials, stolen labour, or stolen taxes should not be allowed on the market at all.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#247

"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…

There was a recent youtube of a Chinese professor discussing how china has gotten along so well with the US while the great migration of manufacturing occurred. It boiled down to wall street being fine with moving manufacturing abroad, as they don't identify with, and in fact despise, the American working class. Pretty depressing.

Do you have a link to this?

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To compete, you really do have to cut minimum wage. You have to loosen regulations, and importantly, you have to do massive tariffs / sanctions on China for the next decade. Part of the problem here is that the existence of some kind of universal "more regulations / less regulations" slider is an illusion. It allows the problem to be cast in partisan terms when that isn't the problem at all, because the problem isn…

I agree with your view wrt to regulations, but doesn't the article paint a different story? I'm wondering if I understood the article wrong - As I understand it, the US status as a global reserve currency requires us to maintain a perpetual trade deficit - other countries need dollars and we must give it to them. This is done by buying goods from overseas which has eroded our manufacturing base, as the foreign demand…

The flip side of a current account deficit is a capital account surplus. To the extent that the informal notion of a "global reserve currency" means anything economically, that's perhaps the best description of it. Such an investment surplus would tend to improve the country's economic base over time, far more than implied by any direct effect of the trade deficit.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#249
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without a very strong (and therefore expensive) social security net, “Letting people work for whatever wage they can achieve” is slavery. See 19th century Britain Germany still has a strong industrial base, without a race to the bottom and with strong unions. So it is possible :)

>Germany still has a strong industrial base It's because they build the machines to build the product the Chinese manufacture. The Germans have forced themselves to be at the top of the Manufacturing Food Chain (engineering, etc) while letting the Chinese/Rest of the world build the crap we buy. I don't think we could get there manufacturing the "Trinkets" the Chinese mostly manufacture, that is a a race to the botto…

What I always wondered: are German products that much better, or is it a meme?

The thought that comes to mind is when American railways tried to import German locomotives in the 1960s. They were appealing because they offered higher horsepower ratings than anything domestic, but they required too much babying and maintenance to keep healthy and were quickly scrapped. I hear strikingly similar things from people buying German cars today-- everything tends to be expensive to keep running after the warranty expires.

I wonder if American manufacturing needs to develop its own meme. I'd suggest the old line about GM products-- they'll run poorly for a lot longer competing products run at all. That could be a compelling argument when you're selling to a manufacturing sector that's rolling out in low-development countries with unstable infrastructure, poor environmental conditions, and low-training staff.

That gives us a niche we can target and use as a base to re-bootstrap ourselves into competitiveness. We need to be decidedly better than bottom-bit Chinese (etc.) tooling, which is probably still within our abilities, and if we overdeliver there, we can begin to position American-made as a premium choice.

Re: The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system

#250
Peter Thiel bet against the US dollar and lost big.

> Subsequent down years have reduced the fund's assets under management to $681 million as of December 2010.[4] Clarium Capital Management was reported to have had big losses in 2010.[14] The firm has continued to struggle with bets that it made on inflation and the US dollar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarium_Capital

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