San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders • Hacker News Board

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#241

Post by st1ck » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 2:00 PM UTC

mwexler wrote: post #236

So, this post suggests that lockdowns don't "work": among other things, a lockdown may create reactance causing people to not not only avoid changing their behaviors to reduce risk, it may even make some perform behaviors to increase risk, to themselves and others. It's just disappointing that, if true, the opposite doesn't work. If only this happened: the gov says "We choose to do no lockdowns, and just have a list…

Authorities in the US and Europe did essentially say this in the early stages, and were (rightfully) criticized for such a policy by certain people. But that was admittedly pretty small percentage of population and also probably not the kind of people you have in mind.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#242

Post by snickms » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 2:05 PM UTC

heleninboodler wrote: post #64

sbuttgereit wrote: post #32

Reading this I was expecting the same knee-jerk, panic response that has become the "acceptable" public health response to the problem the pandemic places before us. While I detect a hint of futility in this statement, I am nonetheless deeply heartened to know some public health officials are themselves questioning some of the simplistic premises that have been driving policy to this point at all levels of government…

I agree wholeheartedly with all three of your points. I disagree strongly with one of his positions (I don't think we should be opening schools while the rest of us are locked down), but I too find it very, very encouraging to have a public official obviously using his brain and being honest about the fact that nobody really knows the right answer. And especially in the context about the use of power, the acknowledge…

As some people are claiming doubt as to the effectiveness of lockdowns, let me point you to the Australian stats: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-dat...

It worked particularly well in Victoria, where a second lockdown turned a ~700 case per day nightmare into 38 straight days of no deaths or locally acquired cases.

New Zealand also used a lockdown strategy. stats: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/...

Suicide rates in the most affected Australian states were surprising: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/09/suici...

The lockdowns were terrible for many people - for all the reasons you can imagine. On the other hand, I doubt anyone here would now argue that those crazy times were a mistake.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#243

Post by nkurz » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 2:12 PM UTC

p4coder wrote: post #182

remote_phone wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most parents of school kids are younger than the 60. That age group has less than 0.2% death rate.

My daughter's school has 2000 kids. 4000 parents. In Santa Clara county the death rate for 40-60 is .5% [1] That would mean 20 parents dead if everyone gets it. Many of the households in immigrant families are multi generational. That will have a multiplying effect. [1] 12.7% deaths and 29.1% cases https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-demogra...

While it's still going to be a very real number, I think you are overestimating the number of deaths considerably. I appreciate that you provided a link, but I don't think that source includes the information you would need to make the estimate you are looking for.

First, I think that you are implicitly assuming that there are an equal number of people in each age category. In addition to the percentages you quote, you also need to know the percentage of the population per age range. Second, the "case" rate is the not the same as the "infection" rate, as it only includes confirmed cases. It's usually assumed that for each confirmed case, there is some unknown multiple of this number of infected individuals.

Eyeballing the chart here (and realizing that Santa Clara might not match these numbers, and guessing equal number in the relevant 5 year age ranges) a better estimate of the death rate for the 40-60 year old group is probably something around .15%: https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/18/covid-infection-fatalit...

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#244

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 2:15 PM UTC

EdwardDiego wrote: post #120

xfitm3 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I despise lockdowns and my state won't enforce them. I am so thankful to be in a level headed state. Forcing people into poverty is just as bad or even worse as getting a virus. In my area beyond after the initial reopening its business as normal. Everyone is having parties and celebrating, living a normal life.

How many excess deaths is a party worth?

[deleted]

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#245

Post by strken » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 2:39 PM UTC

grecy wrote: post #131

dehrmann wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe had hard lockdowns. Not China-hard, but pretty hard. Cases surged again. You mentioned Asia. I saw this headline today: "South Korea's Health Minister Describes Seoul As A 'COVID-19 War Zone'" By US standards, their case count is still incredibly low. The point is they haven't actually been able to contain it, either; they're just acting sooner and more aggressively for the second wave. Apparently New Zealand…

Melbourne in Australia was seeing 600-700 new cases per day in late July/early August. They went into EXTREMELY hard lockdown for 6-8 weeks, and now they haven't had a single case in four weeks. https://www.vox.com/2020/12/4/22151242/melbourne-victoria-au...

The article says there was no secret sauce, which isn't quite right. Some factors that played a role:

- Australia had had an unusually bad fire season and an associated scandal about the government response: our PM was on holiday in Hawaii while an unprecedented area of land was burning. The framework for state/federal cooperation on disaster management was being revised right as 2020 started, and there was political will for strong measures, such as ignoring WHO recommendations to let international borders stay open.

- Victoria had strong state of emergency/disaster powers, including the right to impose movement restrictions, and clear conditions and precedent for imposing them.

- The states had the power to close their borders, and did so, isolating the second wave to one state. Victoria was the odd one out - the other states set the bar at near-total suppression.

- The lockdown really, really sucked. The Victorian state government relied heavily on the support of the federal government, support from the general populace, and federal spending on income supplements. They still came under enormous pressure to end the lockdown early, even with more federal and individual support than states in the US would have gotten.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#246

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 2:51 PM UTC

teej wrote: post #27

wwweston wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't the latest California directives attempting to adapt to this at least at the county level by tying restrictions to hospital capacity in each county? https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/12/03/california-health-official...

Yes, but the other Bay Area counties have chosen to shut down way in advance of that.

[deleted]

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#247

Post by nradov » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 3:05 PM UTC

matz1 wrote: post #229

simonbarker87 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know many doctors and nurses and they are exhausted, over worked and thankful it didn’t get worse than it was To say that lock down was needless because the worst case scenario isn’t proof the lock down wasn’t needed. It is evidence (not proof mind) that the lockdowns worked. It’s like saying you didn’t need to save money because you never ran out of money so you didn’t need the savings in the first place

If the healthcare worker is overworked, then the hospital should hire more worker. Its not like there is not enough healthcare worker looking for employment all over the country. The lockdown was needless because it is worse than the risk if covid.

The unemployment rate for licensed healthcare providers is very low. There are really no extra physicians out there.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#248

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 3:35 PM UTC

heshiebee wrote: post #78

ghayes wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would agree that people "making their own decisions" do affect others, though, correct?

I do believe that most people are responsible enough to take the recommended precautions and encourage their friends and family to do the same and not endanger others. The only outcome I see here is like one of prohibition. Our country was built on trust, integrity and distribution of power, much of this is the opposite in the name of public health when the numbers show otherwise. Closing outdoor dining but letting t…

[deleted]

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#249

Post by simonbarker87 » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 4:17 PM UTC

matz1 wrote: post #229

simonbarker87 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know many doctors and nurses and they are exhausted, over worked and thankful it didn’t get worse than it was To say that lock down was needless because the worst case scenario isn’t proof the lock down wasn’t needed. It is evidence (not proof mind) that the lockdowns worked. It’s like saying you didn’t need to save money because you never ran out of money so you didn’t need the savings in the first place

If the healthcare worker is overworked, then the hospital should hire more worker. Its not like there is not enough healthcare worker looking for employment all over the country. The lockdown was needless because it is worse than the risk if covid.

Perhaps your country has a wash of unemployed healthcare workers just waiting in reserve for “their moment” but in the UK there is a shortage of skilled healthcare professionals and we can’t train them as fast as we need them.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#250

Post by jacobolus » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 4:34 PM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #225

jacobolus wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

San Francisco has so far had by far the best Covid health outcomes of any major US city. If the US on the whole were doing as well as SF, there would be at least 200,000 fewer deaths than there have been. I really hope SF can keep it that way. The recent trend is pretty scary, but if we all hunker down for the next month or two, we can still turn it around.

SF has had 30% of the deaths per 100K as the US average? That is shockingly good and worthy of deeper study if true.

Less than that. SF has had about 20.5 confirmed Covid deaths / 100k so far.

The USA overall has had about 86 confirmed Covid deaths / 100k.

And the USA total is likely a more significant underestimate than the SF total, as there are many places where there has been an abnormal spike of “pneumonia”, “stroke”, etc. deaths never attributed to Covid.