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The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

minervanett.no

241–250 of 494 posts

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The line of thinking is seductive, believe me, but that's the thing about circumstantial evidence - it is very likely that there is a coronavirus infectivity research station next to a massive source of bat coronaviruses, that was in fact why the lab was there!

But do you see the qualitative difference between "pandemic virus appears in general region where these kinds of viruses are common" and "pandemic virus appears down the street from a viral research lab"? You're also just making a straight up false claim anyway, since most of the virus samples discussed in their research come from distant regions (500+ miles away).

It's a tough call.

If you read the actual paper, what they say is:

"These meet the criteria of means, timing, agent and place in this reconstructed historical aetiology to produce sufficient confidence in the account to reverse the burden of proof. Henceforth, those who would maintain that the Covid-19 pandemic arose from zoonotic transfer need to explain precisely why this more parsimonious account is wrong before asserting that their evidence is persuasive"

ie. Basically, there are enough red-flags here that the burden-of-proof is to show that it isn't artificial rather than that it is.

...and you could hear that argument.

On the other hand, it's not really rigorous.

You can't go and say, hey, look, I invented an EM drive; rather than proving that it generates thrust without any emissions by isolating it and measuring it, the burden of proof is on everyone else to "prove why this more parsimonious account is wrong before asserting that their evidence is persuasive".

Ie. Before you go and measure anything, first you have to come tell us why we're wrong.

Now, rather than putting the EM drive in an isolated box and measuring the thrust it produces, you have 50 different people who have to go out and prove that EM drives are impossible before anyone actually goes and measures anything.

See any problems here?

I mean, you could argue it either way, but it doesn't convince me.

While I agree that the paper lays out some interesting points, they're wide open to attack on the conclusion they draw from them.

This, in particular:

"We refute pre-emptively objection that this methodology does not result in absolute proof by observing that to make such a statement is to misunderstand scientific logic. The longer the chain of causation of individual findings that is shown, especially converging from different disciplines, the greater the confidence in the whole."

Sure.

"We posit that the evidence below attains a high level of confidence."

Yup, that's what they've done here. They posit which means, in this case, arbitrarily assert without proof that it is the case that there is a high level of confidence here.

They just haven't shown that in a compelling way imo.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#242
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the papers make a lot of specific arguments. if you have evidence against those arguments, you can say this point is wrong, here is the evidence against it, therefore that claim is likely wrong. Thats science. Your method comes off as: thats not the consensus, thus you are wrong.

You're missing the point of "consensus". The value of having a scientific consensus of trusted sources is precisely that we don't have to all individually read random conspiracy nonsense and come up with counterarguments on our own. We can trust the experts. So if you come by with a theory that isn't supported by those experts, the burden is on YOU to convince people, not me. Now I know you're going to come right bac…

> The value of having a scientific consensus of trusted sources is precisely that we don't have to all individually read random conspiracy nonsense and come up with counterarguments on our own. We can trust the experts.

This sounds like a priesthood. Don’t consider evidence from rando papers. Instead, simply trust the consensus view of these certain, special people who have been blessed as truth-knowers and wear the right robes and hats.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, and this is a really crazy theory, they were studying it in China because it was a local virus that they were worried might one day infect humans. Maybe they were studying which changes would make it most dangerous because they wanted to be ready if those changes happened naturally. Honest hard work can sometimes look like evil plans, and not every coincidence is the result of conspiracy.

Why give a government with modern day concentration camps, forced organ harvesting, and military occupation of free countries like Hong Kong the benefit of the doubt on biological weapons research gone awry?

Because China didn't kill George Floyd in daylight?

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#244

Here's the Cliff Notes version of the argument in this paper: 1. SARS-CoV-2 has a number of unique and unusual genetic features, when compared to close relatives, many of which explain its high virulence and infectivity among humans. 2. A series of research papers published by a group of virologists, dating back a little over a decade, demonstrate (1) a progressively increasing understanding of viral features which m…

This isn't entirely true, though. SARS-CoV-2 is much less virulent than SARS or MERS.

For a virus that recently crossed the zoonotic barrier, and even moreso for one crossing from bats, it's virulence is actually astonishingly low.

Therefore, the hypothesis of a two-stage crossing to humans, from bats to a larger land based mammal and then to humans is much much more likely, because this would explain high transmissibility due to the necessity to infect despite small lung volumes, as well as much lower virulence.

Therefore, the pre-existing hypothesis seems to match reality more closely than an accidental release. A virus being engineered to be an order of magnitude less virulent seems unlikely to say the least.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#245
post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for this summary. A slightly tangential question I'd love to get more perspective on is the impact of the virus being "man made" on our current predicament. Even assuming that the virus was not naturally evolved, and its characteristics are partly caused due to human interventions we're still stuck finding a vaccine, medication and ways of reducing transmission. Is there still a thread here that this virus…

In the article, the authors say that, in 2015, US researchers created a chimeric virus from a bat coronavirus to infect mice lung cells. They tested the virus on human lung cells and predicted that it would be very dangerous to humans. They stopped doing research on it because it would break the US rules against making human viruses more powerful. They were working with virus researchers from Wuhan. The authors conje…

The issue is that SARS-CoV-2 is much, much less powerful. So that doesn't really follow.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#246
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone has a massive incentive to look for actual, concrete evidence for a lab escape before they draw any such conclusions. Leaving aside the uncomfortable geopolitical angle (US policy is to respond to deliberate biowarfare with nuclear weaponry), extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

1) This clearly wasn't biowarfare. The coronavirus is so useless when viewed as a bioweapon that there is no way it is even vaguely possible that it was developed as one. The idea is laughable. The Chinese military would have to be beyond stupid to go into a bioweapons program and develop a virus that mainly only targets old people, usually doesn't cause symptoms, spreads like wildfire and is therefore a huge risk to…

> The coronavirus is so useless when viewed as a bioweapon

Considering the how it's playing out in the US, it looks like a great bioweapon for an civilian attack. A big chunk of the population is old enough to be at risk of death. Another non-negligable portion of young people develops long-term disabilities (which is even more crippling to the economy than short-term deaths). And as a nice side-effect of how bad job security is, millions are now unemployed.

If you were to construct a civilian bioweapon you want to target against the US, it almost looks like you would have new playbook now. I very much agree though, that it's extremely unlikely that it was developed and planned in that way.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#247
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, and this is a really crazy theory, they were studying it in China because it was a local virus that they were worried might one day infect humans. Maybe they were studying which changes would make it most dangerous because they wanted to be ready if those changes happened naturally. Honest hard work can sometimes look like evil plans, and not every coincidence is the result of conspiracy.

I actually believe this to be the case. From what I have read researchers often do something called gain of function research. In this research they add genetic features to viruses that could make it more infective. This is done, at least in part, to help learn how to protect society from such a virus if it were to evolve naturally. I thought I heard somewhere that one of the functions coronavirus has that its closes…

The thing I just don't understand is why gain research would take the effort of making the virus much less deadly. This virus is around ten times less deadly that SARS, wouldn't gain research at least maintain virulence?

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#248
post #86

This is very unlikely. The technology to design a virus reliably just isn't there. What is much more likely is that a lab was studying coronavirus isolates from animals, and had a failure of containment. This has happened multiple times before (eg. with small pox). But even then it is a moot point, because there is no way China, or any country for that matter, would admit they unleashed a global pandemic. Can you ima…

The paper literally walks you through the sequence of published research which demonstrates that scientists have successfully performed chimeric virus manipulation that could explain the observed genetic components present in SARS-CoV-2. The technology is hiding in plain sight.

Yeah but actually building the proteins is the non-trivial and most difficult step. It is not sufficient to merely say that it could be done.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#249
Look, when most virologists/epidemiogists look at this "evidence" and consider it too flimsy and flawed, then I wonder why people here are so eager to jump on it as "I'm not a biologist, covid19 is so unusual, it's obviously man-made". HN is embarrassing right now.

Re: The evidence which suggests that Covid-19 is not a naturally evolved virus [pdf]

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are virus labs all over the place so this could be a birthday paradox. There's one here in rural Montana (the data we quote often about sars-cov-2 survival times on surfaces was generated there).

There are not that many BSL-4 labs worldwide, and especially in China (they only have 2).

Unsurprisingly one of those is in a city of 19 million people next to a reservoir of coronaviruses that already caused epidemics.
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