Underpinning this (and similar announcements in other western economies) is the fact that in the last 4 to 8 years, most of the "new jobs" created have in fact been part-time. Just like for the number of covid infected vs detected, this might very be the tip of the iceberg.
3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
241–250 of 711 posts
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#242Everyone should expect the stock market to thrive off this data today...
Why’s that? I see that the SP500 is rising... but why is this “good news” for businesses?
The danger was businesses losing customers (revenue/income), which these initial numbers confirm...but on the other hand these jobless folks (and the whole country)just took out a $6T loan, of which $5.75T is going to these businesses ($1.75 will not have to be paid back and $4T will be interest free loans, and likely in may cases these companies will actually have negative interest rates, in other words they will make money on borrowing these tax payer loans). These are the very same companies that will also avoid paying US taxes.
Public companies cut all their costs/expenses and are going to be given $5.75T...mainstreet can't buy on these lows (because they have no jobs/income, fear and lack of liquidity are a bad combination) and the companies are flush with cash to buy back stocks now before they get the real windfall from tax payers. In short, public companies will be spending today to buy their own stock.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#243Semi tangent, about dealing with mass unemployment. I like to think this event changes people's perspective on folks out of work in the US. There's a lot of recrimination, and even self loathing about being poor or out of work in the US. It doesn't seem based in reality and certainly isn't helpful. Perhaps it is time we realize that much like a pandemic things in this world change fast and we need to be able to help…
Frankly we have a formal education system that is actively hostile to training people to do jobs, and instead teaches "fundamentals" and "how to learn". There's tremendous support for those concepts, though I personally consider them bogus. If we truly want cross trained people, the education system is the one that needs to change. Otherwise the funding and time that could be used for jobs training will always be soaked up by it. My humble opinion.
I know its not a popular opinion, but when I see my Nanny wanting to get ahead by taking night classes, and those classes have her studying and writing 19th century poetry... I can't help but feel deeply frustrated by the disconnect. How could she possibly stay motivated to finish school, when its only giving her hoops to jump through and no practical skills to get into a better job? How could I convince her to e.g. take programming lessons from me, when society and her parents are telling her a college degree (that, at this rate, she'll unlikely obtain) is what will help her most? /rant
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#244Earlier quoted context omitted.
I imagine those less at risk will eventually give up on confinement and continue on with their lives, forcing those at risk (risk factors, 60+, immunocompromised) to remain confined voluntarily or risk a greater chance of death by venturing out. Those not at risk (younger and healthier) will be prioritized for triage and ventilator access if they do get sick. You can't expect people to shelter in place indefinitely,…
I think the next couple of weeks are going to be eye opening - we're going to get a lot of reports of deaths, even of the young and healthy, which we're already seeing. That should steel the collective resolve to last a while here. People are talking of lifting the restrictions and our collective endurance and things have barely gotten going. It's really complaining about the length of the red light when it's just tu…
> I'm assuming the government does its job
What has led you to make this assumption?
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#245Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Politics here has changed forever Unlikely. I think we'll be back to business as usual (at least on the political side) within a year of the end of the pandemic. I'm also afraid that this is going to be a major setback not just for Europe but globalization in general, which will leave us all worse off in the long run.
On the contrary, setbacks for globalization may very well leave us better off...after all, globalization is one of the main factors why we're experiencing this deadly pandemic now, and have vast swathes of our supply chain for essential pharmaceuticals and medical equipment farmed out to evil, duplicitous regimes like the Chinese state.
Us = the world/humanity, not the USA. China's economic growth has lifted hundreds of millions from poverty, and it would not have happened without globalization.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#246Things that Coronavirus is teaching us: -the people who are actually vital to make the economy are grocery clerks, doctors, nurses, teachers and other carers, but not corporate CEOs, who are ultimately just dead weight. -money is imaginary and they can print as much as they want. -the people in power right now would rather have the stock market crash and watch you and a million other Americans die than give healthcar…
I'm not sure if the lessons will be interpreted in this way, or even remembered once things go back to some form of normalcy, at least for the monied classes that hold the largest microphones in our society.
The lessons learned from the conflict in Vietnam was not that "war is a racket" or "the US shouldn't militarily intervene unless it's a last resort". It was simply that "the US should use proxies where possible and only intervene where the opposition has a limited capacity to fight back".
And even then, they've greatly overestimated their strength in these conflicts. Because the people with the largest microphones said it would be enough to win.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is the saddest thing I've ever read on this site. I know there's people who believe that but it's still shocking to me.
This is the view among most Americans, reinforced by the word 'un'employed which suggests that the default condition is for someone to be employed.
Perhaps not the default but it is the norm. Regardless of semantics we should be pushing UBI for exactly these instances.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#248Earlier quoted context omitted.
Seriously? There were a number of submissions yesterday to HN discussing the relative merits of sacrificing millions for the sake of the market. Perhaps you missed those?
Not sure if this was your intent, but "sacrificing millions for the sake of the Market" sounds like you're trying to shift away from the point that right now about 3.28 million more folks (probably more) are wondering how to pay their rent/mortgages and feed their children. If this lockdown continues indefinitely the death numbers from the economic fallout will likely eclipse those of the pandemic. But nah, the "mark…
> If this lockdown continues indefinitely the death numbers from the economic fallout will likely eclipse those of the pandemic.
Please show us your calculations.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#249Everyone should expect the stock market to thrive off this data today...
> Everyone should expect the stock market to thrive off this data today... There are too many huge announcements for anyone to claim they know why the (millions?) of individuals whose actions are reflected in market prices from noise.
>why the (millions?) of individuals whose actions are reflected in market prices from noise.
Its not individuals buying, individuals sold to secure cash during this unknown period...it is the corporations themselves buying in bulk now, because they are flush with cash, cut all costs, and have $5.75T in cash coming their way in the form of loans that will not need to be repaid ($1.75T worth) and negative interest loans ($4T worth). Point is companies will be buying today while they can.
Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits
#250Earlier quoted context omitted.
The financial crisis didn’t prevent most people from spending money on entertainment or eating out. People scaled back spending or went to cheaper places. People are fearful and a lot of folks are supposed to be sheltering in place. Business are being told to do takeout only which is a huge difference. I was in the restaurant industry during the last crisis. Lots of places stopped hiring and slowed down but business…
Things stop all the time. You just need to find the right event for comparison. In this case probably the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami or the 2011 East Japan Earthquake (Tsunami, Fukushima Nuke plant etc)
I don't think that comparison works.
There, you had relatively short duration disasters where very soon afterwards, coordinated efforts were dedicated to putting the pieces back together.
Now, most of the press and leadership seems to be thinking only about how to manage the health related consequences of an ongoing crisis. I really don't hear anyone strategizing how to put the pieces back together or how to contain the crisis (note that I did not say contain the disease) so things don't fall apart so completely. There is a profound absence of thought amongst those in decision-making positions, at least insofar as I can see.