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The state of the restaurant industry

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Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#241
post #236

My wife an I opened a nail and wax salon 6 months ago. Really don't know what to do, so far they haven't asked us to shutdown. Business had been steadily growing and we are about break-even. No idea how this will play-out, what if anything the building owner can do to help out, or how the federal help might work for a small business like ours. The rent and payroll are our biggest expenses naturally, we can of course…

What's your mobile app please? :)

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The WSJ Editorial Board has suggested that the Fed create a new facility that gives very cheap loans to businesses that need them. These loans will not need to be repaid right away and should sustain any business that needs it during this period. It sounded workable. https://www.wsj.com/articles/financing-an-economic-shutdown-...

Not an economist (just trying to understand all this) but wouldn’t this just be kicking the can down the road? I understand how loans and credit works in healthy markets/seasons but to me this feels like making a bet that these businesses would be able to take this infusion, weather out the storm, and then raise profits enough above what they were before to pay it all back. It’s fundamentally different from me starti…

This would introduce liquidity to a struggling category.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#243
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But a takeout beer would be higher margin than a sit-in beer.

Who would order a takeout beer? If I was going to get takeout and wanted a beer I’d stop at a liquor store or gas station on my way home.

In Pennsylvania at least liquor stores are state run and closed at the moment. You can get beer or wine at some gas stations but that's about it. Anything less popular than huge international brands or very, very popular micro-brews you typically have to go to a beer distributor for and most of those are closed, too (the only ones open are those defying the Governor's strong recommendation to close).

Basically if you want anything less popular than Sam Adams-level of popularity, you have to get it from a restaurant.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But a takeout beer would be higher margin than a sit-in beer.

That's probably only possible in places like New Orleans. I was surprised to learn about the notion of the "to-go cup" a few years back. It has significant explanatory power in some parts of the city.

To-go cups are legal in NYC as of Tuesday, so long as they're sold with food[0].

[0] https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/17/21182052/new-york-state-liquo...

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#245
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food delivery to homes will probably boom. That's going to be the replacement for visiting a restaurant in the coming weeks or months. But every luxury industry that involves going outside and meeting people will be wiped out. The tourist industry is going to be completely dead for a while. Hopefully it can be revived afterward. Hopefully the people involved can find other jobs in the mean time. But it's going to be…

if you're home all day long one of the main spurs for going out to eat is gone, at the end of the day you're no longer too tired to make food, you're not getting home too late to make it at a good time, you don't need to save time. Thus the only spur left to wanting to order food is eating something tasty you can't make at home easily - I admit that is good but given that the delivery is also a potential virus delive…

There are a lot of us tech yuppies that either can’t cook or won’t cook. We will continue to order in all our meals.

Of course that depends on the variety remaining. It may not. It’s been 3 weeks and I’m already starting to tire of my local options.

Maybe I might end up learning to cook after all...

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#246
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food delivery to homes will probably boom. That's going to be the replacement for visiting a restaurant in the coming weeks or months. But every luxury industry that involves going outside and meeting people will be wiped out. The tourist industry is going to be completely dead for a while. Hopefully it can be revived afterward. Hopefully the people involved can find other jobs in the mean time. But it's going to be…

if you're home all day long one of the main spurs for going out to eat is gone, at the end of the day you're no longer too tired to make food, you're not getting home too late to make it at a good time, you don't need to save time. Thus the only spur left to wanting to order food is eating something tasty you can't make at home easily - I admit that is good but given that the delivery is also a potential virus delive…

I want to agree with you, but I think we might both be underestimating the extent to which Americans don't know how to cook food at home. At a certain level of income, I know people who eat every meal out other than maybe breakfast. I can only guess that they're going to be having most meals delivered now.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#247

>the cascading economic impact from just this one sector will be enormous. The entire hospitality industry is going to take a huge hit. I do work in the convention, corporate travel/event space, and my calendar up until June has been wiped out. Cascading is the key thing people seem to gloss over. Sure, servers and kitchen staff are obvious. The food delivery people will not be needed. Companies like Aramark that pro…

It's going to be wiped out far beyond June. Based on the recent models run by UK, the same models that prompted the White House to warn against gatherings of greater than 10 people, the curve doesn't end even without intervention until August. With intervention what we are going through right now could last well into 2021.

Stop with the doomsday panic. This lockdown thing isn’t going to last more than a few weeks at most—at least without massive social upheaval.

Source: my ill informed opinion, same as yours. same source as yours.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#248
post #236

My wife an I opened a nail and wax salon 6 months ago. Really don't know what to do, so far they haven't asked us to shutdown. Business had been steadily growing and we are about break-even. No idea how this will play-out, what if anything the building owner can do to help out, or how the federal help might work for a small business like ours. The rent and payroll are our biggest expenses naturally, we can of course…

> Really don't know what to do

People are trapped at home, itching to get out. You run aggressive promotions right now to drive up your customer base since everyone is sitting at home bored with nothing to do.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#249
post #238
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In today’s world Uber eats, Grubhub, etc take 30% of the gross on an order. No way it’s more profitable than having people in house buying alcohol.

I know the owner of a restaurant who stopped delivery after the apps took over. It literally wasn't worth it, and his drivers all switched over. He tried to find other folks to deliver, but, well, delivery folks aren't exactly known for being long-term employees and most of them deliver for the apps. I still don't understand what a multinational adds to local pizza delivery. Prices went up, pizza doesn't taste any be…

Your local restaurant might make less (I'm not sure I buy that), but the delivery driver likely makes more per hour.

If it was a net loss for everyone except GrubHub or Uber, it wouldn't exist.

Re: The state of the restaurant industry

#250
post #39

The government has talked about bailouts for various industries from airlines, to cruise ships, to shale companies. But almost every sector of the US economy is going to be hit by this and I have no idea how we are going to react. Will there be a restaurant bailout? What would that even look like? It is much easier to work on bailing out a handful of airlines but how do you handle it for literally thousands of small…

The WSJ Editorial Board has suggested that the Fed create a new facility that gives very cheap loans to businesses that need them. These loans will not need to be repaid right away and should sustain any business that needs it during this period. It sounded workable. https://www.wsj.com/articles/financing-an-economic-shutdown-...

How would loans help? A lot of employees aren't currently needed so they will be laid off regardless of whether the business owner can take out cheap loans. I don't see how loans can make up for the much reduced economic activity.
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